Last week many of you spent over 25 hours in the Livestreams with me researching the fights for UFC 246. After all that hard work, we ended up with less than nothing. All we have to show for our effort is having to watch our guy getting Deathshotted within a minute.
UFC 246 was a really good example of why making money on MMA is extremely difficult. It doesn’t matter how hard you work, how much you know about MMA, or how much time you put in; ultimately, we’re betting on Men and Women who are fighting to the death until the time limit is up or the referee steps in and stops it. Very often, people will get punched in the face and knocked out. You can get mad about it, or analyze every losing bet to death, but this is just the game that we are playing.
I wish I could tell you that things like this won’t continue to happen, but they might because gambling is brutal, and anything can happen in MMA. The most important thing to do is stay consistent and not let losses affect your judgment. The worse thing you can do is let losing bets turn into more losing bets because you start to tilt.
This is not my first Rodeo. I’ve been on countless losing streaks before. I’ve been riding the brutal Gambling Rollercoaster for over 15 years now across Online Poker and MMA. Along the way, there have been plenty of ups and downs, and I always end up weathering the storm. Remember that Spring always follows Winter. We cannot control what happens inside the Octagon, but we can control who we bet on. A long time ago, I used to get really mad when I would take bad beats at the Poker tables. I’d implode and Tilt bad. At the time, I had a mentor. He told me not to get stressed about it because it happens to everyone. He told me that if I kept putting my money in strong positions, no matter how the cards fall, over the long term, you would make a profit.
It took a long time for me to beat tilt, but now I’m sat here typing up this message in a House that I bought from only putting my money in strong positions. The advice works. We’ll continue to put our money in strong positions, and that’s why we’ll continue to make money. It’s not going to be easy, but we will do it.
Very few people make money Gambling or in any form of Investing because they quit when the going gets tough. I don’t blame them. We’ve all got busy lives, and the added stress of losing money on situations outside of your control isn’t needed.
What I can tell you is that losing is perfectly normal. It’s so normal that I actually start to anticipate a losing streak after we’ve been doing well for a while because everything goes through cycles.
Nothing continues to go up forever. House prices go up and down; the value of businesses go up and down. I have always viewed betting on MMA as a form of investment because it’s no different from investing in Stocks and Shares. Ultimately we’re using information to assess how something will perform. The only difference is we’re betting on fighters instead of betting on how many Cybertrucks Elon Musk is going to sell. Ray Dalio talks about this concept in his book, Principles. I recommend checking it out.
I think we have 3 types of people within our community.
The first kind is the kind of person who takes betting very seriously. It’s a passion for them, and they either want to earn a living from gambling or at least earn a healthy supplemental income. They use my content as a reference tool or as a resource that they can learn from.
If you fit into that category, then I highly recommend you keep showing up to all my live streams and learn as much from this current run of losses as possible. I always say that in order to win, you need to learn how to lose. Losing streaks hit everyone, it’s how you deal with them and bounce back that counts. Use these last few months and possibly the next few months to train your brain to deal with losses. It’s not easy, but it is essential. A long time ago, when I was learning to deal with losses, I would find it really useful to study how Daniel Negreanu dealt with brutal losses in Poker. I recommend checking out the High Stakes Poker episodes as a starting point. The clip below is a personal favorite of mine:
The second type of person we have is only here to make money. They don’t care about the semantics; they just want to earn a profit. I can relate to this type of person probably better than any other because if I was paying someone for advice on how to make more money, I would want it to take the least amount of my time as possible. If you fit into this category, then I would recommend just utilizing a “set and forget” strategy during losing streaks. Just check the emails, place the bets, and wait for things to turn around. I’ve been making money betting on MMA for a long time now, and from experience, I can tell you that it won’t be long before we put a winning run together again.
The third type of person we have in our community is the type of person that loves MMA. They just want to bet on fights to make watching them more interesting and earn a bit of cash doing what they love. If you fit into this category, then my advice to you would be for you to come along for the ride. Winning feels so much better when you’ve felt the pain of losing.
Losing the bet on Haqparast was disappointing, but we did kick off the year with a respectable profit in Live Betting. The waiting list for new Elite Members will be opening up next week if you would like to get involved sometime in the future.
This week features two major MMA events. We have Bellator 238 and UFC on ESPN+ 24, which both take place on Saturday night. Both events are running at the same time, so we will prioritize Live Betting the UFC.
2020 is going to be a big year for us. I am really enjoying research all these fights with you guys in the Livestreams. This is going to be a busy week with both Bellator and the UFC to get through. Let’s get to work. Hopefully, we can dig up some Gold!
|Curtis Blaydes vs Junior Dos Santos||No bet|
|Michael Chiesa vs Rafael Dos Anjos||3 unit, 2 leg parlay accumulator on Rafael Dos Anjos and Cris Cyborg to win at odds of 1.72 | -139 | 18/25|
|Cris Cyborg vs Julia Budd|
|Alex Perez vs Jordan Espinosa||No bet|
|Angela Hill vs Hannah Cifers||No bet|
|Darko Stosic vs Jamahal Hill||No bet|
|Bevon Lewis vs Dequan Townsend||No bet|
|Arnold Allen vs Nik Lentz||No bet|
|Justine Kish vs Lucie Pudilova||No bet|
|Felipe Colares vs Montel Jackson||No bet|
|Lina Lansberg vs Sara McMann||No bet|
|Brett Johns vs Tony Gravely||1 unit on Brett Johns to win at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1|
|Herbert Burns vs Nate Landwehr||No bet|
Brett Johns vs Tony Gravely Betting Tip and Prediction
After spending a few hours studying this fight, I feel that Brett Johns is a decent bet at his current odds of around 2.00 | +100 | 1/1. We’re getting a good risk to reward ratio on Johns, but there’s also a good chance that he loses. There’s no doubt that this is a high-risk bet. I recommend that you do your own research on this one to decide if you want to take the gamble.
You can find the reasoning for betting Johns from a technical perspective in the video below:
After the research Livestream, I did a bit more digging to see if I could identify any more X-Factors that we need to consider.
I found the interview below where Tony Gravely revealed that he is a former two time NCAA Div 1 qualifier, although, from my limited knowledge of Collegiate wrestling, I don’t think he competes in a very competitive state. He also revealed that he’s from Virginia, so he’ll have home advantage on his side for this fight:
I found the podcast below where Brett Johns reveals a lot about his career and how he feels going into this fight against Tony Gravely. He said that in the first 15 fights of his career, he went into each matchup with a strategy to win.
Then he said that he is a big fan of the UFC and was starstruck when he was stood across the cage from guys like Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munhoz because he’s been a big fan of them. He was worried that they’d outclass him and make him look bad, so to stop that from happening, he decided to go out there and get into an entertaining war. He deeply regrets this and says he’d do things much differently if he could fight those guys again.
He said that the Pedro Munhoz fight was his favorite fight in his career because he learned so much from fighting such a great opponent. He said that he likes to learn techniques from his opponents that he struggled to deal with. As a result, he has spent his time off learning how to throw leg kicks and also how to defend against them. He is also coming into this fight with a strategy to win as he did earlier in his career.
He revealed that he has been trying to get a fight with the UFC since October, but they have been fully booked. He was originally supposed to fight Renan Barao in November, but Barao pulled out.
Brett Johns and Tony Gravely are two grapplers that have dramatically different styles. Gravely is a compact, explosive guy that tries to do everything with power and athleticism, while Brett’s technique is much tighter.
Gravely is a former two time NCAA Div 1 qualifier, but judging by his past fights, his style of wrestling hasn’t transitioned that well into MMA. He has been able to use his relentless style of fighting to take lower-level guys down and hold them on the ground, but his offensive wrestling isn’t great, and his top game isn’t that heavy either.
Strong wrestlers like Gravely can often have a lot of success in regional MMA by overpowering their opponents with their athleticism, but often run into trouble when they start to face guys with superior technique. This is somewhat reflected in Gravely’s MMA record because 4 of his 5 career losses are by submission. It’s also worth noting that Gravely has lost every time he’s faced a step up in competition. He lost to Bellator fighters Ricky Bandejas and Patrick Mix and lost to UFC fighters Manny Bermudez and Merab Dvalishvili. This could just be a coincidence, or it could be a sign that Gravely isn’t quite ready to step up against top-level opponents because his grappling is still quite green.
Brett Johns built a career from tight grappling control and appears to be the more skilled MMA grappler despite Gravely’s NCAA Div 1 qualifier credentials. Having said that, it’s impossible to determine how much Gravely’s athleticism will impact the grappling exchanges until we see these two guys mix it up. It is worth noting that Brett was able to survive a couple of trademark Pedro Munhoz guillotine attempts and hang on the ground with Aljamain Sterling. He even took Aljamain down into side control, which not many guys have been able to do.
Standing up, Brett Johns will have a huge technical advantage, but there’s still danger here because Brett loves to scrap. He doesn’t like to back down and likes to bet on his chin. He’ll go full Leonard Garcia from time to time, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in this fight because Gravely has bad striking defense, and he’s wide open to counters.
It is important to note that Johns is vulnerable to getting dropped or KO’d because of his recklessness. The fact is, both guys are reckless. Johns has a proven granite chin and superior technique, so in a fight with tight odds, you got to lean towards him.
Gravely likes to blitz his opponents with attacks based on hard straight punches. He’s quite predictable, and if Brett can weather the early storm and settle into a rhythm, we could see a scenario where he turns Gravely into a panic wrestler and knocks him out. Gravely’s striking defense is terrible due to a lack of skill, whereas Brett’s striking defense is bad out of choice. He loves to throw down and get into crazy exchanges, but maybe his losses against Munhoz and Sterling have taught him that he needs to fight a bit smarter.
One of the main reasons why I like a bet on Brett Johns at close to even money is because Gravely has a very predictable style of fighting. Every fight, he has the same gameplan. He comes out the gate super aggressive throwing big power strikes, so that you focus on covering up and blocking the punches, only to then see him level change and go to the takedown.
Based on past performances, it’s unlikely that Gravely will knock Johns out because Johns has a granite chin, and Gravely landed bombs on his last 4 opponents and didn’t KO any of them. The guys he fought were a much, much, much lower level than Brett [some wins are recorded as KOs because he finished his opponents with ground and pound]. Based on past performances, I also feel it’s unlikely that Gravely will be able to wet blanket Johns because he gives his opponents a lot of time and space to work back to their feet.
Brett Johns revealed on those podcasts that he’s done his homework on Gravely and knows what to expect. In contrast, Johns can do it all. He has solid Boxing, strong wrestling, and a high-level ground game. There are a lot of areas where Johns can cause Gravely big problems. He has a lot more ways to win.
Brett Johns is a high-risk bet, but the current odds reflect that. I currently cap him at around 60%, which means we’re getting a good margin here. Hopefully, he comes through for us, but there’s also a significant amount of risk, so we need to bet him relatively small.
Reasons for betting on Brett Johns
Risk Factors with betting on Brett Johns
My Betting Tip
Brett Johns to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1
The bookies believe that Brett Johns has a 50% chance of beating Tony Gravely based on their current odds.
Michael Chiesa vs Rafael Dos Anjos Betting Tip and Prediction
Rafael Dos Anjos has just about every advantage you could want going into an MMA fight. He’s a significantly better grappler than Michael Chiesa. He’s a significantly better striker than Michael Chiesa, and he’s got great fight IQ.
Rafael Dos Anjos is also incredibly tough. He’s had over 40 pro fights, and he’s NEVER been submitted. Within those 40 fights, he’s only been stopped with strikes 3 times. These stats are incredibly impressive when you take into consideration the fact that RDA has been competing against the best fighters at the highest level of the UFC for over 7 years year.
Every bet carries risk factors. But the only advantage that Chiesa has going into this fight is size. At 6 ft 1, Chiesa will tower over RDA who stands at 5 ft 8. It is worth noting, however, that Chiesa’s striking is very low level. He doesn’t know how to use his length. His long limbs will make it easier to control RDA in grappling exchanges, but RDA is the more technically skilled grappler, and Chiesa frequently gives up position when on the ground.
Take a look at my research video below to see a more comprehensive breakdown of why Rafael Dos Anjos is a solid bet this weekend:
Reasons for betting on Rafael Dos Anjos
Risk Factors with betting on Rafael Dos Anjos
Cris Cyborg vs Julia Budd Betting Tip and Prediction
Cris Cyborg only has one weakness, and this weakness has only crept in during her last couple of fights…
Her weakness is her recklessness. In her last two fights, she hasn’t shown her opponents any respect; she’s just tried to take them out.
This weakness can, however, also be a strength because her recklessness and aggression often overwhelm her opponents. The thing with Cyborg is that she has an amazing chin, and she’s very tough, so she bets on herself to get inside and overwhelm her opponents without them having the power or composure to punish her. Amanda Nunes had both the power and composure, and we all know what happened there, but I don’t think Budd can do the same.
If we think about the 3 ranges this fight takes place in, I think Cyborg can dominate Budd in all of them.
If it stays standing, Cyborg will likely come forward and headhunt. Budd has nice kicks, but I don’t think they’ll be enough to hurt Cyborg because you need time and space to get kicks off, and Cyborg will just walk through them. To hurt Cyborg standing, you need to really sit down hard and commit to your counters, you need to meet her head-on, and you need to have decent Boxing and power in your hands. Based on past performances, Budd doesn’t possess any of these skills. Her Boxing and punches have not looked dangerous at all.
In the clinch, Budd can have some success because she’s strong and physically imposing, but it’s hard to beat someone like Cyborg by controlling them in the clinch because she’s likely to do so much damage in other ranges. It’s also not easy to control Cyborg because she’s so strong. Cyborg has a base in Muay Thai, which means she’s always looking to land nasty elbows and knees in this position. In contrast, Budd just prefers to control people in the clinch.
Wrestling is one area where Budd might be able to have the most success because she’s strong, has excellent double leg takedown entries, and she’s heavy from top position. We haven’t seen Cyborg fight many strong wrestlers over the last few years, but her grappling credentials do give some strong indications that Budd might have her hands full if she can get this fight to the ground. Over 10 years ago, Cyborg won a Bronze medal at the ADCC submission wrestling tournament in Abu Dhabi, and she’s likely to have improved a lot since then. She’s also a long-time training partner of Gabi Garcia. If this fight goes to the ground, there’s a good chance that Cyborg handles Budd. The flashes of Cyborg’s wrestling we have seen over the years has looked very impressive.
Cyborg has also shown over the years that she’s incredibly tough. She fought with a compound fracture against Ibragimova, ate bombs from Amanda Nunes, and still didn’t get put out, and she has been busted up bad in some other fights and never slows down.
This is a real tough matchup for Budd because she doesn’t have the Boxing to make Cyborg pay for her recklessness. Maybe she wins through the randomness of MMA, but she absolutely has her handsful.
We also have to take into consideration the fact that drug testing is non-existent in Bellator. This means that Cyborg can take whatever performing-enhancing drugs and supplements that she wants. She can also take Diuretics to help her cut weight, and she can use an IV to rehydrate afterward.
This is a really difficult challenge for Budd. She doesn’t have a clear path to victory.
Reasons for betting on Cris Cyborg
Risk Factors with betting on Cris Cyborg
My Betting Tip
Cyborg and Dos Anjos to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.72
Moneyline = -139
Fractional = 18/25
The bookies believe that Rafael Dos Anjos and Cris Cyborg have a 58% chance of winning based on their current odds.