We didn’t have any official prefight bets for last week’s UFC, but it feels like things are slowly starting to turn around for us. Prop Bets have been doing great. Live Bets have been doing great, and we’ve already uncovered 1 rock-solid prefight bet, and it’s only Monday!
I am also excited to announce that by this time next week, we will have launched a brand new area of the website called “The Lab.” This will enable us to experiment with different kinds of betting styles to uncover the optimum way to bet on MMA and maximize the profits we make from our World Class research.
Our research is so incredible that there has to be a way that we can use this to make even more money than we do now. The Lab will be a great way for us to run experiments that will enable us to maximize our profitability long term.
I’ll be sure to notify you by email when it’s ready.
Results will go up and down with brutal swings back and forth, but over the long term, we’ll continue to trend upwards and grind out profits long term. Thank you so much for all your support over the last few years it means more to me than you could ever know!
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez||3 units on Joseph Benavidez to win at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5||Benavidez||Benavidez|
|Felicia Spencer vs Zarah Fairn||No bet||Spencer||Fairn|
|Ion Cutelaba vs Magomed Ankalaev||No bet||Ankalaev||Ankalaev|
|Megan Anderson vs Norma Dumont||No bet||Dumont||Dumont|
|Darrick Minner vs Grant Dawson||No bet||Dawson||Minner|
|Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia Jr||No bet||Pena||Garcia|
|Gabriel Silva vs Kyler Phillips||No bet||Silva||Silva|
|Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese||No bet||Breese||Breese|
|Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivak||1 unit on Marcin Tybura to win at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1||Tybura||Tybura|
|Jordan Griffin vs TJ Brown||No bet||Griffin||Griffin|
|Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle||No bet||Cruz||Cruz|
|Ismail Naurdiev vs Sean Brady||1 unit on Sean Brady to win at odds of 2.05 | +105 | 21/20||Brady||Brady|
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez Betting Tip and Prediction
If this were a 3 round fight, there would be a bit of value on Joseph Benavidez but not a massive amount. He’d still be worth a bet, but there would be a much greater risk of him losing. The fact that this is a 5 round title fight changes everything. This is an excellent stylistic matchup for Benavidez because Figueiredo doesn’t have the cardio to keep up with the pace that he will set over a 25-minute title fight.
I recommend watching our Livestream research session for this matchup for an in-depth breakdown of the reasons why I feel Benavidez is a great bet at his current odds of around 1.80 | -125 | 4/5:
Joseph Benavidez is a terrible stylistic matchup for Deiveson Figueiredo because Benavidez has the cardio to push a crazy pace for 25 minutes and be competitive wherever the fight takes place. Figueiredo is a fighter who fights in bursts in order to pace himself. He will explode into a striking combination or grappling exchange, and then he’ll need 30-40 seconds to recharge his batteries before launching the next attack. He relies on putting his opponents into a defensive shell for those 30-40 seconds after an explosive attack so that he can then recover and get ready for the next Blitz. Benavidez will not play that game; he’ll be in his face non-stop for 25 minutes. This means that Figueiredo will not be able to pace himself.
Before researching this fight, I thought that Figueiredo would have a big advantage striking, but after watching their recent fights, I can assure you that this isn’t the case. Benavidez isn’t the most technical striker, but he does have good footwork, and he’s extremely fast. The speed at which he covers distance and blitzes his opponent often catches them off guard. It’s the reason why he was able to drop Dustin Ortiz bad and knock Jussier Formiga out in his last two fights.
Deiveson Figueiredo has bad striking defense, and it gets worse as the fight goes on. Before research, I felt that there was a good chance Figueiredo would dominate the fight if it stayed standing, but I now feel like Benavidez can outstrike Figueiredo and even knock him out!
Figueiredo’s striking offense is also very sloppy. Yes, he hits hard, but he throws single shots and doesn’t set his power strikes up very well. He spends a lot of time headhunting, and this makes it easy to out volume him. He’s also not particularly accurate with his power strikes.
Joseph Benavidez will also have a big advantage on the ground. Figueiredo is a big, strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt who is tough to hold down at the beginning of a fight, but as he starts to get tired into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he becomes much easier to hold down. He’s also weak off his back once and has pretty bad takedown defense when he starts to get tired.
Figueiredo is dangerous early on in the fight, but he becomes significantly less dangerous after the 1st round. He also has a predictable style of fighting. It’s obvious that he tries to fight in bursts and take your head off before resetting, recharging, and trying again. Benavidez is an experienced veteran who will be wise to the fact that Figueiredo will try to pace himself. He won’t play that game.
Joseph Benavidez can win this fight standing up or on the ground. He has cardio for days and a granite chin. Yes, Figueiredo carries big power, and he could KO Benavidez, but the same can be said for every fight. There is risk with every bet. If you’re worried about losing money due to flash KOs, you shouldn’t be betting on MMA. This is not for you.
Joseph Benavidez has only been finished one time in his entire 33 fight career at the hands of Demetrious Johnson. This is extremely impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Benavidez has consistently been competing against the best fighters in the world for the last 10 years.
This is a great stylistic matchup for Benavidez because I don’t see Figueiredo being able to keep up with the pace that he will set. At odds of around 1.80 | -125 | 4/5, Benavidez is the best value bet that I’ve seen in a while.
Reasons for betting on Joseph Benavidez
Risk Factors with betting on Joseph Benavidez
My Betting Tip
Joseph Benavidez to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.80
Moneyline = -125
Fractional = 4/5
The bookies believe that Joseph Benavidez has a 56% chance of beating Deiveson Figueiredo based on their current odds.
Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivak Betting Tip and Prediction
I feel like the bookies have Wikicapped this fight, and the odds haven’t fully corrected yet. On paper, this looks bad for Tybura because he’s 1-4 in his last 5 fights and he’s taking on Sergey Spivak, who is 10-1, but when you actually delve into the footage, you see that this is a good stylistic matchup for Tybura as long as he fights smart.
At this stage, I want to make it clear that this is a high-risk bet. Tybura is very slow and has poor striking defense. He gets rocked, dropped, or knocked out in almost all his fights. Spivak has an advantage over him standing. Tybura needs to get this fight to the ground to win.
I recommend taking a look at the Livestream research session below and deciding for yourself whether you want to bet this fight:
This will be an easy fight for Marcin Tybura if he chooses to take this fight to the ground. Sergey Spivak showed in his last fight against Tai Tuivasa that he has a low-level ground game. Tybura is a strong wrestler with nice, deep, double leg takedown entries and a heavy top game. I also like how he stays busy from top position and constantly chips away at his opponents with ground and pound. This makes it difficult for referees to stand him up when he gets top position.
At just 25 years old Spivak is very young, so he’s very green on the ground. I have no doubt that he’ll be making big improvements from fight to fight, but his ground game is at too much of a low level to make significant strides since his last fight against Tuivasa just 4 months ago. Spivak also seems like one of these guys that gets caught up in the moment. In many of his fights, he looks to take his opponents down, which would be a big mistake against Tybura, who is levels above him on the ground.
One of the main reasons why I lean towards Tybura in this fight is because Spivak appears to have bad cardio. The vast majority of his fights have ended in round 1 due to the low level of opponent he has been matched up against. After just 3 minutes against Tuivasa, his hands were down by his side, and he was taking big, deep breaths. Tybura is one of these rare Heavyweights that has the cardio to fight at a decent pace for 3 rounds without slowing down too much. If he’s able to get Spivak down and obtain a period of top control early in the fight, Spivak is most likely going to be too tired to hurt him standing.
Standing up is where Spivak can have a lot of success. He’s much faster than Tybura and throws nice straight punches when he’s fresh. Tybura’s striking defense is awful, and he’s very slow. He’s wide open to the KO when in Kickboxing range.
This is one of those fights where Tybura has a clear, easy, and obvious path to victory. If he uses his grappling early and often as he did against Derrick Lewis and Stefan Struve, this should be an easy night’s work for him. If he tries to win a Kickboxing match as he did against Abdurakhimov, he is likely going to get himself into trouble. The only Silver lining is that Spivak did gas out after 3 minutes against Tuivasa, which means Tybura might have a lot more success standing in the 2nd and 3rd round than we anticipate. Tybura has much better cardio.
This is a high-risk bet because of how hittable Tybura is, but at his current odds, there’s definite value here. Being cautious, I would cap him at 60%, but if Spivak shows up and performs like he did against Tuivasa, I feel it’s fair to cap Tybura at much higher than that. He’ll have a huge advantage on the ground, and his gas tank appears to be much better.
Do your own research on this one because there’s a good chance Tybura gets knocked out.
Reasons for betting on Marcin Tybura
Risk Factors with betting on Marcin Tybura
My Betting Tip
Marcin Tybura to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1
The bookies believe that Marcin Tybura has a 50% chance of beating Sergey Spivak based on their current odds.
Ismail Naurdiev vs Sean Brady Betting Tip and Prediction
I didn’t expect to be betting Sean Brady this weekend because I heavily leaned towards Naurdiev before doing research. This is one of those fights where my initial lean was way off. Betting Brady became an absolute no brainer during our Livestream research session:
Naurdiev has competed 3 times in the UFC, and each time he has gassed out badly within 3-4 minutes. Early on, he is explosive and dangerous, but if you can weather that early storm, he becomes VERY beatable.
Naurdiev is very dangerous offensively. He has devastating kicks and major power early, but even in round 1, when he’s at his most dangerous, his Boxing isn’t great, and his striking defense is very bad. Naurdiev is there to be hit, and he becomes increasingly easier to hit as the fight goes on. Sean Brady is an excellent Boxer that carries major power in his hands deep into the fight. He’s got a nasty lead left hook that should cause Naurdiev big problems.
Naurdiev is extremely difficult to take down early on in a fight, but as he starts to get tired, it becomes easier. Brady doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling, but he does have a heavy top game, and he can generate a lot of power with his ground and pound.
Naurdiev is one of those of these guys that is very difficult to take down, but if you can get him down, he’s extremely weak off his back. Brady has a heavy top game and can inflict major damage from top position. Brady also does a great job of catching kicks and turning them into takedowns. This is a big potential path to victory because Naurdiev throws a lot of sloppy, naked, lazy kicks when he starts to get tired.
I really like Sean Brady here because he’s also a very intelligent fighter. As the former CFFC Welterweight Champion, he understands the importance of pacing himself and putting his stamp on rounds. Naurdiev still has that raw, aggressive energy and hasn’t yet worked out a fighting style to make the most of his high-level skills.
This is a risky bet because Naurdiev is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division, but Sean Brady is very good. He’s the complete package. He can win this fight wherever it takes place. After round 1, Naurdiev becomes significantly less effective, while Brady can fight at a decent pace for 3 rounds. Brady is a great value bet here.
Reasons for betting on Sean Brady
Risk Factors with betting on Sean Brady
My Betting Tip
Sean Brady to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.05
Moneyline = +105
Fractional = 21/20
The bookies believe that Sean Brady has a 49% chance of beating Ismail Naurdiev based on their current odds.