UFC on ESPN+ 27 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

We didn’t have any official prefight bets for last week’s UFC, but it feels like things are slowly starting to turn around for us. Prop Bets have been doing great. Live Bets have been doing great, and we’ve already uncovered 1 rock-solid prefight bet, and it’s only Monday!

I am also excited to announce that by this time next week, we will have launched a brand new area of the website called “The Lab.” This will enable us to experiment with different kinds of betting styles to uncover the optimum way to bet on MMA and maximize the profits we make from our World Class research.

Our research is so incredible that there has to be a way that we can use this to make even more money than we do now. The Lab will be a great way for us to run experiments that will enable us to maximize our profitability long term.

I’ll be sure to notify you by email when it’s ready.

Results will go up and down with brutal swings back and forth, but over the long term, we’ll continue to trend upwards and grind out profits long term. Thank you so much for all your support over the last few years it means more to me than you could ever know!

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez 3 units on Joseph Benavidez to win at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5 Benavidez Benavidez
Felicia Spencer vs Zarah Fairn No bet Spencer Fairn
Ion Cutelaba vs Magomed Ankalaev No bet Ankalaev Ankalaev
Megan Anderson vs Norma Dumont No bet Dumont Dumont
Darrick Minner vs Grant Dawson No bet Dawson Minner
Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia Jr No bet Pena Garcia
Gabriel Silva vs Kyler Phillips No bet Silva Silva
Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese No bet Breese Breese
Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivak 1 unit on Marcin Tybura to win at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 Tybura Tybura
Jordan Griffin vs TJ Brown No bet Griffin Griffin
Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle No bet Cruz Cruz
Ismail Naurdiev vs Sean Brady 1 unit on Sean Brady to win at odds of 2.05 | +105 | 21/20 Brady Brady

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez Betting Tip and Prediction

If this were a 3 round fight, there would be a bit of value on Joseph Benavidez but not a massive amount. He’d still be worth a bet, but there would be a much greater risk of him losing. The fact that this is a 5 round title fight changes everything. This is an excellent stylistic matchup for Benavidez because Figueiredo doesn’t have the cardio to keep up with the pace that he will set over a 25-minute title fight.

I recommend watching our Livestream research session for this matchup for an in-depth breakdown of the reasons why I feel Benavidez is a great bet at his current odds of around 1.80 | -125 | 4/5:

Joseph Benavidez is a terrible stylistic matchup for Deiveson Figueiredo because Benavidez has the cardio to push a crazy pace for 25 minutes and be competitive wherever the fight takes place. Figueiredo is a fighter who fights in bursts in order to pace himself. He will explode into a striking combination or grappling exchange, and then he’ll need 30-40 seconds to recharge his batteries before launching the next attack. He relies on putting his opponents into a defensive shell for those 30-40 seconds after an explosive attack so that he can then recover and get ready for the next Blitz. Benavidez will not play that game; he’ll be in his face non-stop for 25 minutes. This means that Figueiredo will not be able to pace himself.

Before researching this fight, I thought that Figueiredo would have a big advantage striking, but after watching their recent fights, I can assure you that this isn’t the case. Benavidez isn’t the most technical striker, but he does have good footwork, and he’s extremely fast. The speed at which he covers distance and blitzes his opponent often catches them off guard. It’s the reason why he was able to drop Dustin Ortiz bad and knock Jussier Formiga out in his last two fights.

Deiveson Figueiredo has bad striking defense, and it gets worse as the fight goes on. Before research, I felt that there was a good chance Figueiredo would dominate the fight if it stayed standing, but I now feel like Benavidez can outstrike Figueiredo and even knock him out!

Figueiredo’s striking offense is also very sloppy. Yes, he hits hard, but he throws single shots and doesn’t set his power strikes up very well. He spends a lot of time headhunting, and this makes it easy to out volume him. He’s also not particularly accurate with his power strikes.

Joseph Benavidez will also have a big advantage on the ground. Figueiredo is a big, strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt who is tough to hold down at the beginning of a fight, but as he starts to get tired into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he becomes much easier to hold down. He’s also weak off his back once and has pretty bad takedown defense when he starts to get tired.

Figueiredo is dangerous early on in the fight, but he becomes significantly less dangerous after the 1st round. He also has a predictable style of fighting. It’s obvious that he tries to fight in bursts and take your head off before resetting, recharging, and trying again. Benavidez is an experienced veteran who will be wise to the fact that Figueiredo will try to pace himself. He won’t play that game.

Joseph Benavidez can win this fight standing up or on the ground. He has cardio for days and a granite chin. Yes, Figueiredo carries big power, and he could KO Benavidez, but the same can be said for every fight. There is risk with every bet. If you’re worried about losing money due to flash KOs, you shouldn’t be betting on MMA. This is not for you.

Joseph Benavidez has only been finished one time in his entire 33 fight career at the hands of Demetrious Johnson. This is extremely impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Benavidez has consistently been competing against the best fighters in the world for the last 10 years.

This is a great stylistic matchup for Benavidez because I don’t see Figueiredo being able to keep up with the pace that he will set. At odds of around 1.80 | -125 | 4/5, Benavidez is the best value bet that I’ve seen in a while.

Reasons for betting on Joseph Benavidez

  • Joseph Benavidez has only been finished one time in his entire 33 fight career at the hands of Demetrious Johnson.
  • Figueiredo fights in bursts in order to pace himself. Benavidez will not play that game. He’s be in his face pushing a crazy pace for 25 minutes.
  • Joseph Benavidez will have a significant advantage over Figueiredo on the ground.
  • Figueiredo has bad takedown defense and he’s weak off his back when he starts to get tired.
  • Figueiredo throws a low volume of strikes. Benavidez should be able to outstrike him.
  • Figueiredo has major power, so he tries to load up and land the power strikes. He’s not that accurate with them and he may struggle to land on someone elusive like Benavidez who utilizes a lot of footwork.
  • Over the last few years Benavidez appears to have developed major power in his hands.
  • Figueiredo fights with his hands low and has bad striking defense.
  • Figueiredo does not have the cardio to fight at a high pace for 25 minutes.
  • Figueiredo kills himself to make Flyweight, he always looks like death at the weigh ins. This might start to catch up with him, especially since he’ll have to cut an extra pound to make Championship weight.
  • Joseph Benavidez is extremely tough. He’s the kind of guy you have to kill in order to finish.
  • Benavidez is a very strong wrestler and he’s excellent in the scramble. It’s almost impossible to establish a dominant position on him.

Risk Factors with betting on Joseph Benavidez

  • Benavidez is a bit reckless.
  • Benavidez blitzes forward with his hands low. He’s there to be hit although Figueiredo doesn’t have the best timing or accuracy on counters.
  • Figueiredo hits extremely hard for a Flyweight. He has legit KO power.
  • Benavidez has a lot of miles on the clock. He has been consistently competing against the best fighters in the world for the past 10 years.
  • This will be a very tough fight for Benavidez, if Figueiredo shows up with cardio to fight at a high pace for 5 rounds.

My Betting Tip

Joseph Benavidez to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.80
Moneyline = -125
Fractional = 4/5

56%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Joseph Benavidez has a 56% chance of beating Deiveson Figueiredo based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Joseph Benavidez has an 70% chance of beating Deiveson Figueiredo based on my extensive research and analysis.

Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivak Betting Tip and Prediction

I feel like the bookies have Wikicapped this fight, and the odds haven’t fully corrected yet. On paper, this looks bad for Tybura because he’s 1-4 in his last 5 fights and he’s taking on Sergey Spivak, who is 10-1, but when you actually delve into the footage, you see that this is a good stylistic matchup for Tybura as long as he fights smart.

At this stage, I want to make it clear that this is a high-risk bet. Tybura is very slow and has poor striking defense. He gets rocked, dropped, or knocked out in almost all his fights. Spivak has an advantage over him standing. Tybura needs to get this fight to the ground to win.

I recommend taking a look at the Livestream research session below and deciding for yourself whether you want to bet this fight:

This will be an easy fight for Marcin Tybura if he chooses to take this fight to the ground. Sergey Spivak showed in his last fight against Tai Tuivasa that he has a low-level ground game. Tybura is a strong wrestler with nice, deep, double leg takedown entries and a heavy top game. I also like how he stays busy from top position and constantly chips away at his opponents with ground and pound. This makes it difficult for referees to stand him up when he gets top position.

At just 25 years old Spivak is very young, so he’s very green on the ground. I have no doubt that he’ll be making big improvements from fight to fight, but his ground game is at too much of a low level to make significant strides since his last fight against Tuivasa just 4 months ago. Spivak also seems like one of these guys that gets caught up in the moment. In many of his fights, he looks to take his opponents down, which would be a big mistake against Tybura, who is levels above him on the ground.

One of the main reasons why I lean towards Tybura in this fight is because Spivak appears to have bad cardio. The vast majority of his fights have ended in round 1 due to the low level of opponent he has been matched up against. After just 3 minutes against Tuivasa, his hands were down by his side, and he was taking big, deep breaths. Tybura is one of these rare Heavyweights that has the cardio to fight at a decent pace for 3 rounds without slowing down too much. If he’s able to get Spivak down and obtain a period of top control early in the fight, Spivak is most likely going to be too tired to hurt him standing.

Standing up is where Spivak can have a lot of success. He’s much faster than Tybura and throws nice straight punches when he’s fresh. Tybura’s striking defense is awful, and he’s very slow. He’s wide open to the KO when in Kickboxing range.

This is one of those fights where Tybura has a clear, easy, and obvious path to victory. If he uses his grappling early and often as he did against Derrick Lewis and Stefan Struve, this should be an easy night’s work for him. If he tries to win a Kickboxing match as he did against Abdurakhimov, he is likely going to get himself into trouble. The only Silver lining is that Spivak did gas out after 3 minutes against Tuivasa, which means Tybura might have a lot more success standing in the 2nd and 3rd round than we anticipate. Tybura has much better cardio.

This is a high-risk bet because of how hittable Tybura is, but at his current odds, there’s definite value here. Being cautious, I would cap him at 60%, but if Spivak shows up and performs like he did against Tuivasa, I feel it’s fair to cap Tybura at much higher than that. He’ll have a huge advantage on the ground, and his gas tank appears to be much better.

Do your own research on this one because there’s a good chance Tybura gets knocked out.

Reasons for betting on Marcin Tybura

  • Sergey Spivak has a very low level ground game.
  • Marcin Tybura is a strong wrestler. He has a heavy top game with nice deep double leg takedown entries.
  • Sergey Spivak gives up position a lot on the ground while attempting long shot submissions.
  • Sergey Spivak is very inexperienced. He has only gone past the 1st round one time in his entire career against Tai Tuivasa. He will not have learned how to pace himself yet.
  • Spivak appeared to gas after around 3 minutes in his last fight against Tai Tuivasa.
  • Marcin Tybura has good cardio for a Heavyweight. He can fight at a decent pace for 3 rounds.
  • Spivak’s striking appears to be quite sloppy when he gets tired. He was reaching with looping hooks against Tuivasa after just 2 minutes.
  • Outside of the UFC Spivak looked fast and explosive. Against Tuivasa he looked flat and slow. It’s possible that he built a career using Performance Enhancing Drugs outside of the UFC and now that’s he in the UFC he’s nowhere near as dangerous because USADA drug testing makes it more difficult for him to use banned substances.
  • Marcin Tybura is very tough. He eats a lot of clean hard shots, but he has a good ability to recover when hurt and he always tries to fight through adversity. In contrast we saw Spivak turtle up when he got hurt by Walt Harris.
  • Tybura is 1-4 in his last 5 fights. He must know that if he loses this he is going to be released from the UFC. You’d expect him to fight smart and use his grappling in order to keep his place in the promotion.
  • If Spivak starts to gas out after 3 minutes like he did against Tuivasa, he won’t pose as much of a risk to Tybura standing.
  • Spivak has a lot of 1st round finishes against a very low level of opponent. He’s not used to facing a tough opponent who is prepared to push a decent pace and go the distance. This may leave Spivak in a state of confusion. If he opens up and fights at a decent pace, he risks gassing again. If he tries to pace himself, he risks getting outpointed. Spivak’s lack of experience puts him at a disadvantage in this matchup.

Risk Factors with betting on Marcin Tybura

  • Spivak has a big speed advantage over Tybura.
  • In his WWFC fights Spivak threw fast, straight punches that would likely cause Tybura big problems.
  • Tybura is very slow and he has bad striking defense. He’s extremely easy to hit.
  • Tybura gets rocked, dropped, wobbled or knocked out in almost all of his fights.
  • Sergey Spivak is only 25 years old, so he will most likely be making big improvements from fight to fight.

My Betting Tip

Marcin Tybura to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1

50%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Marcin Tybura has a 50% chance of beating Sergey Spivak based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Marcin Tybura has a 60% chance of beating Sergey Spivak based on my extensive research and analysis.

Ismail Naurdiev vs Sean Brady Betting Tip and Prediction

I didn’t expect to be betting Sean Brady this weekend because I heavily leaned towards Naurdiev before doing research. This is one of those fights where my initial lean was way off. Betting Brady became an absolute no brainer during our Livestream research session:

Naurdiev has competed 3 times in the UFC, and each time he has gassed out badly within 3-4 minutes. Early on, he is explosive and dangerous, but if you can weather that early storm, he becomes VERY beatable.

Naurdiev is very dangerous offensively. He has devastating kicks and major power early, but even in round 1, when he’s at his most dangerous, his Boxing isn’t great, and his striking defense is very bad. Naurdiev is there to be hit, and he becomes increasingly easier to hit as the fight goes on. Sean Brady is an excellent Boxer that carries major power in his hands deep into the fight. He’s got a nasty lead left hook that should cause Naurdiev big problems.

Naurdiev is extremely difficult to take down early on in a fight, but as he starts to get tired, it becomes easier. Brady doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling, but he does have a heavy top game, and he can generate a lot of power with his ground and pound.

Naurdiev is one of those of these guys that is very difficult to take down, but if you can get him down, he’s extremely weak off his back. Brady has a heavy top game and can inflict major damage from top position. Brady also does a great job of catching kicks and turning them into takedowns. This is a big potential path to victory because Naurdiev throws a lot of sloppy, naked, lazy kicks when he starts to get tired.

I really like Sean Brady here because he’s also a very intelligent fighter. As the former CFFC Welterweight Champion, he understands the importance of pacing himself and putting his stamp on rounds. Naurdiev still has that raw, aggressive energy and hasn’t yet worked out a fighting style to make the most of his high-level skills.

This is a risky bet because Naurdiev is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division, but Sean Brady is very good. He’s the complete package. He can win this fight wherever it takes place. After round 1, Naurdiev becomes significantly less effective, while Brady can fight at a decent pace for 3 rounds. Brady is a great value bet here.

Reasons for betting on Sean Brady

  • Ismail Naurdiev has bad cardio. He tends to slow down bigtime after 3-4 minutes.
  • Sean Brady has good enough cardio to fight at a decent pace for 3 rounds.
  • Ismail Naurdiev has poor striking defense.
  • Sean Brady has good Boxing. His combinations are great and he throws a wide range of strikes.
  • Ismail Naurdiev is wild and reckless. Brady is much more controlled and tactical.
  • Ismail Naurdiev is very weak off his back.
  • Sean Brady has a heavy top game.
  • Sean Brady can inflict major damage with ground and pound from top position.
  • Sean Brady has really good fight IQ.
  • Sean Brady is very good at catching kicks and turning them into takedowns. Naurdiev throws a lot of sloppy, naked kicks when he starts to get tired.
  • Naurdiev struggles to fight on the back foot. He needs to be the aggressor or he is completely ineffective.
  • Naurdiev is very flat footed after round 1.

Risk Factors with betting on Sean Brady

  • Naurdiev is very dangerous in round 1.
  • Naurdiev’s kicks are amazing in round 1. He carries vicious KO power in them.
  • Naurdiev is very difficult to take down in round 1.
  • Naurdiev is only 23 years old, so he should be making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Ismail Naurdiev trains under Henri Hooft at Sanford MMA.

My Betting Tip

Sean Brady to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.05
Moneyline = +105
Fractional = 21/20

49%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Sean Brady has a 49% chance of beating Ismail Naurdiev based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Sean Brady has a 60% chance of beating Ismail Naurdiev based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

2 Comments

  1. Yeah, I thought about Joseph as a good bet, i was just waiting to see if the odds keep improving. Hope he can get the belt, he´s a great fighter and tough mexican SOB. Tybura is also jumping out to me, i don´t think Spivaks game will work on him. And the odds on Ankalaev keeps improving. Looking forward for your research and opinion. Let´s stay calm and consistent and make some profit this weekend.

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