Over the last few weeks, I have started to notice some signs that the oddsmakers are struggling with the sheer number of fights taking place at the moment. The odds on the Cheick Kongo vs. Vitaly Minakov fight from this past weekend was an excellent example of this.
We’ve also seen see odds thrown up in Live Betting over the last few weeks that are completely crazy. On Bellator Newcastle 2 weeks ago, Ryan Scope and Corey Browning were massive underdogs in between rounds even though it was clear that they were involved in 50 / 50 fights. Just this past weekend we saw Aljamain Sterling, Nik Lentz, and Paul Felder as moderate favorites at the end of round 2, even though all 3 fighters were CLEARLY up 2 rounds going into the 3rd rounds with their opponents needing a finish to win the fight.
Inaccurate odds on MMA are nothing new. The opening odds on all MMA events tend to be off by 20% to 40%, but the betting sites usually get away with this by setting super low max bet limits in the days or weeks after the odds first get released. They then rely on the betting public to correct them for a minimal cost because they set max bet limits extremely low. As we get closer to the time of the fights, the betting sites gradually increase the max bet limits as the odds continue to be corrected and therefore become more accurate. Now that we are getting 1 to 3 events per week, this system is failing because it’s taking the oddsmakers longer to research fights and publish the odds, which means there isn’t as much time for the betting public to correct the odds before the fights take place.
This system is also failing because the betting public also does not have enough time to identify inaccuracies. I bet on MMA for a living, and right now I am spending 9 to 10 hours per day sitting in front of my computer researching fights. I do this 6 days a week and spend the majority of the 7th day sleeping. The average person simply cannot do this because they have to work a job and have other commitments, so this means that inaccurate odds are floating around for much longer, with decent max bet limits.
In light of all the crazy odds we are seeing, I have a feeling that we are going to do really good over the next few months if this continues.
After scanning through all the fights taking place this weekend at UFC on ESPN+ 3 I see a lot of inaccurate odds. This is something I usually see when odds first get released for a card, but the difference this week is that we are only 4 days away from the fights, so there isn’t much time for these odds to change and max bet limits will dramatically increase every day now in the run-up to an event.
For this reason, I am going to do things slightly differently this week. I am going to focus on researching these fights and getting bets out ASAP before the odds start to decline too much. I will then go back and add breakdowns and reasoning for the bets later on in the week when my research is done. Writing breakdowns is a very time-consuming process, and I think my time is better spent focusing on research at this early, critical stage of the week. I hope you understand.
These are exciting times for us. We have already banked 12.50 units of profit in February, and if the betting sites continue to struggle, I strongly believe that we have some big paydays ahead of us.
|Jan Blachowicz vs Thiago Santos||No bet||Santos to win|
|Marcos Rogerio De Lima vs Stefan Struve||No bet||De Lima to win|
|Gian Villante vs Michal Oleksiejczuk||No bet||Villante to win|
|Liz Carmouche vs Lucie Pudilova||No bet||Pudilova to win|
|John Dodson vs Petr Yan||No bet||Yan to win|
|Klidson Farias vs Magomed Ankalaev||No bet||Ankalaev to win|
|Gillian Robertson vs Veronica Macedo||1 unit on Veronica Macedo to win at odds of 2.40 | +140 | 7/5||Macedo to win|
|Carlo Pedersoli vs Dwight Grant||No bet||Pedersoli to win|
|Damir Hadzovic vs Polo Reyes||No bet||Reyes to win|
|Ismael Naurdiev vs Michel Prazeres||No bet||Prazeres to win|
|Daniel Teymur vs Chris Fishgold||No bet||Teymur to win|
|Diego Ferreira vs Rustam Khabilov||No bet||Ferreira to win|
|Damir Ismagulov vs Joel Alvarez||No bet||Ismagulov to win|
Gillian Robertson vs Veronica Macedo Betting Tip and Prediction
UFC on ESPN+ 3 has turned out to be a disappointment for prefight betting. At the beginning of the week when the odds were first released, there were loads of names jumping out at me. I was optimistic that I would have a few solid bets for this event, but as I began to research each of the fights, I was struggling to find anyone that I felt confident putting my money on.
Veronica Macedo has had a tough start in the UFC. She made her debut at just 20 years old on 10 days notice against a big, strong, physical opponent in Ashlee Evans-Smith. Back then the Flyweight division didn’t exist, so Macedo was forced to enter the UFC’s Bantamweight division. At the time she was the youngest fighter to ever compete in the Octagon. Evans-Smith towered over her at 5 ft 8 and had a huge size advantage. This size advantage turned out to be the deciding factor in that fight…
Macedo just couldn’t gain respect with her strikes against a much larger opponent. On the ground, she was overpowered and struggled with Evans-Smiths’ physicality. From a technical perspective, Macedo held her own in that fight, but size matters in MMA and Evans-Smith was able to use her considerable size advantage to walk Macedo down and control where the fight took place.
Then in Macedo’s most recent fight, she made her Flyweight debut against another strong, powerful, explosive opponent in Andrea Lee. Macedo should probably be fighting at Strawweight, and even though Lee didn’t have as big a size advantage as Evans-Smith did, her physicality was too much for Macedo to deal with.
Again, from a technical point of view, Macedo held her own and pushed Lee harder than anyone has ever pushed her before. But she lacked the strength on the ground and the power in her hands to gain respect in the Octagon.
3 years after making her UFC debut against Ashlee Evans-Smith, Macedo is now 23 years old and finally fighting someone her own size. Her opponent, Gillian Robertson is just 5 ft 2, which means that Macedo will have the slight size advantage standing at 5 ft 4. But that’s not the only area where she will have an advantage…
Macedo is a Black Belt in Tae Kwon Do and a Brown Belt in Karate. She’s a very technical striker, with fast hands and she throws a very wide range of strikes. In contrast, Gillian Robertson has absolutely no stand up at all. Macedo’s advantages over Robertson when it comes to striking are enormous. If Macedo can keep this fight standing, she should dominate.
Gillian Robertson is an easy fighter to gameplan for because her strategy is the same in all of her fights. She comes out aggressive in round 1 and commits every ounce of energy she has into getting her opponent to the ground. Robertson lacks solid traditional wrestling techniques, so she relies on a wide range of unorthodox, but effective methods to drag her opponents down. Based on Macedo and Robertson’s past performances, I do believe there is a good chance Robertson will be able to get this fight to the ground, but if it goes to the ground I don’t believe she’ll have it all her own way…
Gillian Robertson has shown in her past performances that she’s very good at being the hammer, but not so good at being the nail. When she gains dominant positions over her opponents, she is excellent, but she begins to wilt as soon as she is put into a bad position.
In Macedo’s last two fights against much larger opponents in Andrea Lee and Ashlee Evans-Smith, she went to war and fought at a high pace for 15 minutes. Despite being outmatched physically, she stayed in their faces and managed to hold her own standing up and on the ground. Macedo is a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at 10th Planet Gyms, and she’s a very skilled grappler. She’s also super tough and has cardio for days. There’s no quit in her.
Gillian Robertson’s desperation takedown attempts show all the signs of her being a panic wrestler. When it was clear that she wouldn’t be able to take Barb Honchak or Mayra Bueno Silva down and control them on the ground, she quickly looked for a way out. Veronica Macedo is ready for war. She always shows up and brings it 100%. She’ll be in your face for 15 minutes. She’s an excellent striker with great submission defense and a technical ground game.
I believe that Macedo is the more complete fighter. Robertson will commit everything she has to getting this fight to the ground, and if she is not able to do that and establish dominance on the ground, it is likely, based on past performances that she will wilt. Macedo has a ‘huge advantage over Robertson when it comes to striking, and she’s also skilled enough to hold her own on the ground. I don’t believe that Macedo should be the underdog in this fight. She’s a decent bet at the current odds.
Reasons for betting on Veronica Macedo
Risk Factors with betting on Veronica Macedo
My Betting Tip
Veronica Macedo to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.40
Moneyline = +140
Fractional = 7/5
The bookies believe that Veronica Macedo has a 42% chance of beating Gillian Robertson based on their current odds.