October is shaping up to be a great month for us as we continue to grind out solid profits on both Prefight and Live Betting.
We now turn our attention to UFC on ESPN 6, where I feel confident that we can put more money in the bank. There looks to be at least a couple of rock-solid bets on this card. Let’s hope that we can finish the year strong by making more money on Friday night.
|Chris Weidman vs Dominick Reyes||No bet||Reyes to win|
|Jeremy Stephens vs Yair Rodriguez||2 units on Jeremy Stephens to win at odds of 1.96 | -104 | 24/25||Stephens to win|
|Ben Sosoli vs Greg Hardy||No bet||Hardy to win|
|Joe Lauzon vs Jonathan Pearce||No bet||Pearce to win|
|Gillian Robertson vs Maycee Barber||No bet||Robertson to win|
|Deron Winn vs Darren Stewart||No bet||Stewart to win|
|Charles Rosa vs Manny Bermudez||No bet||Rosa to win|
|Diana Belbita vs Molly McCann||No bet||McCann to win|
|Boston Salmon vs Randy Costa||No bet||Costa to win|
|Kyle Bochniak vs Sean Woodson||No bet||Bochniak to win|
|Court McGee vs Sean Brady||1 unit on Court McGee to win at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5||McGee to win|
|Brendan Allen vs Kevin Holland||No bet||Allen to win|
|Daniel Spitz vs Tanner Boser||No bet||Spitz to win|
Jeremy Stephens vs Yair Rodriguez Betting Tip and Prediction
Last month my two most confident bets ended up being voided under weird circumstances. We had a huge bet on Marvin Vettori at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25, only to see his opponent Andrew Sanchez pull out of the fight. Unfortunately when the fight was rebooked for UFC on ESPN+ 19, the odds opened at a price point where there was no longer any value, which was super frustrating because Vettori cruised to an easy win.
Now at UFC on ESPN 6 we get a second bite at the Apple with our bet on Jeremy Stephens to beat Yair Rodriguez. Lets hope Stephens comes through for us like Vettori would have come through for us, had his odds stayed at the odds we initially bet him at.
A couple of things have changed since Stephens was first scheduled to fight Yair…
Obviously this fight is no longer taking place at Mexico City, which is great because Yair will no longer have home advantage and Stephens won’t have to deal with the high altitude climate. This gives us more reasons to feel confident in Stephens.
Unfortunately Stephens is a slow starter and this was a better matchup for him when it was scheduled as a 5 round main event. Now that the fight is only 3 rounds it favours Yair more, but it still doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad stylistic matchup for Yair.
Jeremy Stephens is a bad stylistic matchup for Yair Rodriguez because Yair has historically struggled to deal with pressure fighters. This is because his Tae Kwon Do style of striking requires him to have time and space to plant his feet and get his kicks off. If you don’t give him space, he becomes significantly less dangerous.
Jeremy Stephens has a high-pressure style of fighting with the power in his hands to inflict significant damage if you don’t stay on your bike and continue to circle away from his power right hand.
For a Tae Kwon Do based fighter, Yair is surprisingly flat-footed and lacks effective footwork to circle on the outside and counter strike. This means that he’ll be forced to use his Boxing to try and create space for himself by backing Jeremy Stephens up. This is unlikely because Yair’s Boxing is quite poor.
Yair’s flat-footed style of Tae Kwon Do could also get him into trouble in this matchup because he stands very heavy on his lead leg and Jeremy Stephens has vicious leg kicks.
Neither guy is a particularly strong offensive wrestler, so I do expect this to be a standup fight.
In a standup fight, I give Jeremy Stephens a decent advantage because he’s got the chin and footwork to fight his way inside to a range where he can use his Boxing to inflict significant damage on Yair. Yair simply does not have the Boxing to back Stephens up.
The second risk factor is that Yair is a flashy, unorthodox, and unpredictable striker. He doesn’t really have the power in his hands to hurt Stephens with Boxing, but he could score a flash KO with one of his trademark, highlight-reel attacks.
The third and in my opinion, the most significant risk factor to take into consideration is that at times Stephens is guilty of headhunting. He throws rounds away by stalking his opponent around the Octagon trying to land the killer shot. In these kinds of rounds, he throws such a low volume of strikes that it becomes easy to outpoint him and outwork him in that round. Having said that, Yair’s footwork isn’t great, and he struggles to land effective strikes while moving backward, so maybe I am overly cautious of this risk factor.
Jeremy Stephens isn’t a rock-solid bet, but his current average odds of around 1.96 | -104 | 24/25 carry an implied probability of just 51%. I can confidently cap him at approximately 60% here, which means we’re getting a generous 8% margin over the bookies. Stephens is a bad stylistic matchup for Rodriguez. Let’s hope that he can come through for us.
Reasons for betting on Jeremy Stephens
Risk Factors with betting on Jeremy Stephens
My Betting Tip
Jeremy Stephens to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.96
Moneyline = -104
Fractional = 24/25
The bookies believe that Jeremy Stephens has a 51% chance of beating Yair Rodriguez based on their current odds.
Court McGee vs Sean Brady Betting Tip and Prediction
Before I get into the reasons why I think Court McGee to beat Sean Brady is a good bet this weekend, I want to make it very clear that this is a risky, calculated gamble. I don’t feel at all confident that McGee will win. I give Brady just as much chance of winning as I give McGee, but after completing my research, I have no idea why Brady is such a big favorite.
For the reasons I will discuss in this breakdown, this is about as close to a 50 / 50 fight as you’re ever going to get. McGee is currently around a 2.80 | +180 | 9/5 underdog, which carries an Implied Probability of 36%. This means we’re getting a very generous margin of 14% over where the bookies are setting the odds.
I can tell you right now that this is not going to be an easy winner because McGee is not the same guy that he used to be. I strongly believe that this will be a close fight, which is why it makes sense to bet on McGee as a big underdog. The risk to reward ratio is very good here.
If you go back and watch any of Brady’s recent fights, you’ll see that he’s very passive. He throws a low volume of strikes per round and doesn’t seem to have much power either.
Brady is making his UFC debut this weekend against McGee. A large percentage of fighters lose when they make their debut. One of the reasons why this occurs is because it takes them a while to get used to fighting under the bright lights of the UFC. This means that they often start slow, so they’re down at least a round or two before they settle into a rhythm.
When a passive, low volume fighter like Brady makes their UFC debut, they often become even more passive until they can shake off the Octagon jitters. This is one of my favorite reasons for betting on Court McGee.
Court McGee isn’t the same fighter that he used to be, but he still has great cardio, a great chin and he’s reasonably good at everything. He’s also tough as nails, and he’ll be in Brady’s face for every second of this fight. This is a tough fight for Brady because McGee can test him in areas that his past opponents have been unable to test him in.
It’s not going to be easy for a young, passive, inexperienced fighter like Brady to make his UFC debut against a tough, well-rounded veteran like McGee.
If the fight stays standing, I see McGee outworking Brady. Brady is more technical than McGee, but having superior technique is pointless if you don’t let your hands go. McGee is way more active and should be able to outpoint Brady.
On the ground, I also give McGee the advantage. Brady is a reasonably good offensive wrestler, but he’s small for the division, so he doesn’t have very good top control. McGee should quickly be able to work his way back to his feet if he does get taken down.
The real key to victory here for McGee will be that he is far better than Brady in the scramble. This was the difference in his fight against Alex Garcia and, ultimately, the reason why he won that fight.
Sean Brady loves to grapple in his fights, but he makes a lot of positional mistakes, which create opportunities for his opponents to hit reversals and wind up on top of him. None of his past opponents have been skilled enough to capitalize on these mistakes, but McGee certainly is.
I usually don’t like to bet on aging veterans when they compete against young, hungry, up and coming fighters, but I was super underwhelmed when I watched Brady’s last 3 fights. There’s a lot of hype behind him coming into the UFC as the current CFFC Welterweight Champion, but it is not justified or backed up by any substance, in my opinion.
Maybe Brady shows up looking much better than we have seen from him in the past, but if he shows up looking like he did in any of his fights over the last 2 years, he is going to struggle against McGee. This should be a close, competitive, back and forth fight, and in that type of matchup, I’ll take the big underdog all day long. Win or lose the odds are way off here. Let’s hope McGee comes through for us.
Reasons for betting on Court McGee
Risk Factors with betting on Court McGee
My Betting Tip
Court McGee to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.80
Moneyline = +180
Fractional = 9/5
The bookies believe that Court McGee has a 36% chance of beating Sean Brady based on their current odds.