UFC on ESPN+ 25 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Our current run of results is not my worst run ever, but after Saturday night, it definitely feels like my unluckiest.

It’s not often you will find a fighter in the UFC at odds of approximately 1.40 | -250 | 2/5 with such a massive amount of advantages over his opponent, but we found one early last week in Alex Morono. As the week progressed, Morono’s odds corrected themselves down to 1.25 | -400 | 1/4, but beating the line movement in a big way means nothing when your guy gets deathshotted in 27 seconds.

If you’ve played Poker, you will know how a great number of probability defying outcomes can occur in a short space of time, and Morono’s loss was the cherry on top of a disgustingly unlucky run of results we’ve been having.

By the time Andrea Lee stepped into the Octagon to face Lauren Murphy, I already had a bad feeling. Initially, I hadn’t planned to bet Lee, but in our Livestream research session for her fight against Lauren Murphy, it was really difficult to pass Lee up after watching Murphy get outstruck by almost everyone she’d fought in the last 7 years. When we saw how hard it was to take Lee down and hold her down, she became a no brainer bet, especially when you take into consideration that Murphy isn’t a very strong offensive wrestler and only tends to shoot 1 or 2 takedowns per fight.

Predictably, at the age of almost 37, Murphy showed up and looked a lot better than she had in recent fights, but thankfully Lee was able to deal with it. We went on to watch Lee outstrike Murphy in every round in what was a predominantly stand up fight. After dropping Murphy early in round 3, surely there was no way that the judges could screw this one up? Was our bad run of luck finally coming to an end?

The judges did, unfortunately, screw it up. On a night with so many wacky scorecards, I guess it would have been wishful thinking that we could have avoided running into a bad decision.

I have been betting on MMA for over 10 years now, and I don’t ever remember every single MMA media member agreeing on the outcome of a fight that ended in a split decision. There’s always 1 or 2 guys that see it the wrong way. The fact that every single media member scored the fight for Andrea Lee illustrates just how bad of a decision this one really was:

The bad decision loss added to our recent run of split decision robbery losses on Klidson Abreu in November and Aleksandar Rakic in December. The Lee, Abreu, and Rakic robberies now account for a -8.08 unit swing over the last 3 months. This is incredibly frustrating when you take into account the fact that these fights were pretty clear cut to judge. It has been almost a year since a controversial judging decision went our way on prefight betting.

UFC 247 was a pretty dead event for Live Betting with so many flash KOs and big favorites on the card. We ended up taking a small loss after a couple of bets. Our real work begins this week on UFC on ESPN+ 25 as we embark upon a run of back to back events every weekend until early April. We now have plenty of competitive Fight Night cards for us to get our teeth into.

This also looks like it could be a good card for prefight betting with plenty of names jumping out at me right now as potential bets. I am looking forward to getting stuck into these fights and working hard to get our results back on track.

I hope you’ll join me in the Livestreams, where I’ll be researching every single fight this week.

Results will go up and down with brutal swings back and forth, but over the long term, we’ll continue to trend upwards and grind out profits long term. Thank you so much for all your support over the last few years it means more to me than you could ever know!

Fight Betting Tip
Corey Anderson vs Jan Blachowicz No bet
Diego Sanchez vs Michel Pereira No bet
Devin Clark vs Dequan Townsend No bet
Montana De La Rosa vs Mara Romero Borella No bet
Brok Weaver vs Rodrigo Vargas No bet
Lando Vannata vs Yancy Medeiros No bet
Daniel Rodriguez vs Tim Means 4 units on Tim Means to win at odds of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5
John Dodson vs Nathaniel Wood No bet
Jim Miller vs Scott Holtzman No bet
Ray Borg vs Rogerio Bontorin No bet
Casey Kenney vs Merab Dvalishvili 3 units on Merab Dvalishvili to win at odds of 1.63 | -159 | 63/100
Mark De La Rosa vs Raulian Paiva No bet
Macy Chiasson vs Shanna Young No bet

Daniel Rodriguez vs Tim Means Betting Tip and Prediction

Exactly a week ago, we bet Alex Morono, for pretty much all the same reasons I am going to bet on Tim Means. Morono had the home advantage; Means does too. Morono was fighting a guy stepping up short notice; Means is too. Morono had big advantages over his opponent everywhere; Means does too.

Just like with Alex Morono last week, Means can only lose this fight via flash KO, injury, DQ, or if something insane happens. One of the keys to making money from gambling is consistency. You cannot let losses that occur due to unpredictable outcomes affect your decision making or future bets.

We saw the odds decline on Morono from 1.38 | -263 | 19/50 down to about 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 on fight day, and I expect the odds on Means to move in a similar way. For this reason, I recommend that you lock in this bet ASAP.

This is a great stylistic matchup for Tim Means and, hopefully, a relatively risk-free way to get a 40% return on our money and hopefully bounce back from the recent run of losses.

I recommend watching some footage on Tim Means and then checking out my Livestream on this fight to determine whether or not this is a bet that you want to tail. There’s plenty of footage available on Daniel Rodriguez that will enable you to make a good decision:

As you can see, Daniel Rodriguez has a limited range of attacks. He has nice leg kicks, but his Boxing is quite predictable. He looks to split his opponent’s guard by pumping the jab or right hook from the Southpaw stance. He then follows through with the power left hand. It’s a predictable pattern that he uses in all his fights and something that shouldn’t give a high-level striker like Means a problem.

What’s interesting about Rodriguez’s style of Boxing is that he doesn’t even seem bothered about landing his lead right hand. I’ve never seen him snap the head back of his opponent or inflict damage with it. All the work he does with his lead right hand is simply to create an opening for his power left.

In terms of grappling, Tim Means is lightyears ahead of Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez should be in big trouble if this fight goes to the ground.

The only real criticism I have of Tim Means is that he loves a scrap. He’s not in there to score points or fight safely; he’s looking to take you out. This means that he is there to be hit and does get hit a lot.

Tim Means is one of these super high-level strikers that loves to stand in the pocket right in front of his opponent and exchange. He likes to bet on his chin over his opponents and does a great job of rolling with the punches. One of the techniques that Means likes to use as part of his striking defense, is to keep his shoulders up high so that when his opponents do throw power strikes, his chin is tucked nicely below his chin, and the shots tend to land on the top of his head which don’t do as much damage.

Flash KOs are always a risk in MMA, especially when you’re betting on a guy like Means that loves to get into a dogfight. But it’s important to remember that there’s risk with every bet. It is our job to measure how much risk there actually is with a bet and then consider whether the risk to reward ratio is worth it. Daniel Rodriguez is tough and scrappy, but if you take a look at his past fights, you’ll see that he doesn’t carry that much power in his hands. His predictable style of striking also makes him much less dangerous.

Tim Means is also incredibly durable. He’s only been KO’d one time in his entire career. That’s impressive considering he’s had over 40 pro fights and has consistently been fighting top-level opponents for the last 8 years.

It’s also worth noting that Tim Means appears to be fighting much safer these days. In his last few fights, he has decided to use his grappling much more.

It’s also worth noting that both Tim Means and Daniel Rodriguez are Southpaws. The Southpaw vs. Southpaw dynamic should favor the more experienced striker in Tim Means, who throws a much more diverse range of strikes. The Southpaw vs. Southpaw dynamic will also make Rodriguez’s power left hand a little less dangerous.

Tim Means also lives and trains in Albuquerque, New Mexico, so he’ll have home advantage on his side. Rodriguez is stepping up to fight Means on just over 1 week’s notice.

Reasons for betting on Tim Means

  • Tim Means is significantly better than Daniel Rodriguez is every single aspect of MMA.
  • Tim Means has only been KO’d one time in his entire 41 fight career.
  • Daniel Rodriguez and Tim Means are both Southpaws. The Southpaw vs Southpaw dynamic will favour the more experienced striker in Means, who throws a much more diverse range of strikes.
  • Daniel Rodriguez has a very predictable style of fighting. He looks to lead with the jab or right hook to distract his opponent before following up with the power left hand. This is a predictable pattern that he uses over and over again. This kind of basic style of striking should not cause Tim Means a problem.
  • Tim Means has a big advantage over Daniel Rodriguez on the ground.
  • Tim Means has started to show more of a willingness to use his grappling in his last few fights.
  • Tim Means lives and trains in New Mexico, so he’ll have home advantage on his side for this fight.
  • Daniel Rodriguez is stepping up to fight Means on just over 1 week’s notice.
  • Rodriguez becomes quite hittable when you start to pressure him. Tim Means is a high pressure style of fighter.
  • Daniel Rodriguez doesn’t appear to be that dangerous.
  • Tim Means throws a very wide range of strikes. His arsenal of attacks is very diverse.
  • Tim Means sees everything coming. He loves to mix things up and stand in the pocket forcing his opponent to exchange.

Risk Factors with betting on Tim Means

  • Tim Means loves to scrap. He’ll bet on his chin over his opponents and try to suck them into a firefight.
  • Tim Means can be overly aggressive at times.
  • Against some past opponents, Means has struggled to put his stamp on rounds although I don’t feel he’ll have a problem racking up points against Rodriguez’s basic Boxing style.
  • Rodriguez is tough and aggressive.
  • Rodriguez commits hard to his power left hand.
  • Rodriguez is a Southpaw, but so is Means.

My Betting Tip

Tim Means to win

Recommended Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.40
Moneyline = -250
Fractional = 2/5

70%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Tim Means has a 70% chance of beating Daniel Rodriguez based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Tim Means has an 80% chance of beating Daniel Rodriguez based on my extensive research and analysis.

Casey Kenney vs Merab Dvalishvili Betting Tip and Prediction

I’m always preaching about the importance of keeping things tight and waiting for strong positions to pop up, and this, unfortunately, means passing on the majority of fights. I know that this can be very frustrating for many of you, but the fact is, the odds on the majority of fights are accurate. This is why you need to stay patient in order to make a long term profit betting MMA.

If you do stay patient and wait for the strong positions to come to you, every once in awhile, you stumble across a bet where the odds don’t make any sense. A bet on Merab Dvalishvili fits into this category. This is one of those fights where the odds are so off that it seems too good to be true.

If you want detailed reasoning for why I believe Dvalishvili is a good bet this weekend, I recommend checking out the Livestream research session below:

As you can see in that video, there are a lot of reasons to like Dvalishvili in this fight.

Dvalishvili and Kenney are both grapplers, but Dvalishvili’s style of grappling is much better suited to MMA because he’s the stronger wrestler, and he understands the importance of position over submission. Dvalishvili is very aggressive with his wrestling and understands the importance of maintaining a dominant position as opposed to advancing position and giving your opponent the opportunity to improve their own position. Kenney is different because he’s constantly attacking submissions, trying to advance and ultimately giving his opponents the space they need to work their way back to their feet.

I love Dvalishvili because he’s one of these guys that won’t accept being on the bottom. As soon as he gets taken down, he’s looking to create space and immediately pops back up to his feet. He also shows urgency in the clinch position to not allow his opponents to control him. He’s constantly working. Kenney is different in that he has looked quite weak off his back at times during his last two fights.

Kenney and Dvalishvili are both primarily grapplers, but there’s no doubt that Dvalishvili is the stronger wrestler. He has strong grappling control, good chain wrestling, and he possesses a wide range of offensive wrestling that he uses to great effect to take his opponents down. Dvalishvili has trips, throws, double legs, single legs, body locks, and suplexes, and he does a great job of chaining it all together. Kenney’s takedown defense has looked pretty bad in his two fights in the UFC, so Dvalishvili should have no problem taking the fight to the ground.

From a technical point of view, Kenney will have an advantage in striking, but Dvalishvili can somewhat make up for this with his power. Kenney doesn’t appear to be that dangerous standing and also becomes quite sloppy as the fight goes on. Dvalishvili sits down really hard on his punches, and he should be able to inflict much more damage if these guys exchange. Kenney does have very nice leg kicks, but it won’t be easy for him to land these because Dvalishvili is constantly moving. This brings me to my next point…

It’s very difficult to get comfortable and settle into a rhythm against Dvalishvili because he’s constantly mixing things up and transitioning from striking to takedowns and grappling. Just when you think he wants to wrestle, he’ll light you up with a Boxing combination, and when you think he wants to get into a Kickboxing match, he’ll change levels and take you down. This unpredictable style of fighting makes him difficult to gameplan for, and it also makes it difficult to build any momentum.

One of the main reasons why I like Dvalishvili in this fight is because this fight is taking place at High Altitude in New Mexico, and we’ve seen Kenney slow down in the 3rd round at Sea Level in his last two fights. Dvalishvili has demonstrated excellent cardio in his fights against Ware, Katona, and in particular, Ricky Simon and appears to be able to sprint for 15 minutes. Dvalishvili can redline it and fight at a very high pace for the full duration of the matchup. I don’t believe that Kenney is going to be able to keep up with the pace that Dvalishvili sets.

Dvalishvili is also one of these guys that’s incredibly tough. He has a decent chin, and he’s the type of guy that you have to practically kill in order to finish.

MMA is an unpredictable sport, where anything can happen, but Dvalishvili is a super strong position to put your money this weekend. I’d be surprised if Kenney finds a way to win this.

Reasons for betting on Merab Dvalishvili

  • Merab Dvalishvili is a very strong wrestler.
  • Merab Dvalishvili has excellent chain wrestling. He does a great job of chaining suplexes, body locks, trips, throws, single legs and double legs together.
  • Dvalishvili has excellent cardio. He can sprint for 15 minutes and fight at a very high pace.
  • Casey Kenney has slowed down in the 3rd round of his last two fights. This fight is at High Altitude in New Mexico. Based on past performances he will struggle to keep up with the pace that Dvalishvili sets.
  • Dvalishvili is very aggressive. He’s constantly working.
  • Casey Kenney gives his opponents a lot of space to work back to their feet when he’s in top position.
  • Merab Dvalishvili is the direct training partner of Aljamain Sterling. Iron sharpens Iron and Dvalishvili trains with better grapplers than Kenney everyday in the gym.
  • Dvalishvili does a great job of mixing things up. He’s constantly transitioning between striking and grappling. This makes him very unpredictable. He’s difficult to gameplan for.
  • Dvalishvili is extremely tough, he’s the kind of guy that you have to practically kill in order to finish.
  • Dvalishvili hits very hard. He’s not the most technical striker, but he does have power in his hands.
  • Kenney doesn’t appear to be that dangerous. He doesn’t appear to have much power and his submission game doesn’t look particularly dangerous.
  • Kenney has bad takedown defense and he’s quite weak off his back.

Risk Factors with betting on Merab Dvalishvili

  • Dvalishvili is wild and reckless.
  • Kenney is a skilled grappler, Dvalishvili will have to work hard to control him.
  • Kenney is a more technically skilled striker than Dvalishvili.
  • Dvalishvili’s striking is very sloppy.
  • Casey Kenney has nice leg kicks.
  • This fight is at high altitude. Maybe Kenney’s cardio holds up better than Dvalishvili’s in this climate. It’s unlikely based on past performances, but it’s possible.

My Betting Tip

Merab Dvalishvili to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.63
Moneyline = -159
Fractional = 63/100

61%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Merab Dvalishvili has a 61% chance of beating Casey Kenney based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Merab Dvalishvili has an 70% chance of beating Casey Kenney based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

2 Comments

  1. I bet lee early at -340 and then it climbed too -380. On fight day it fell out too -310 and I was really surprised that so much late action came in on Murphy since nobody I follow thought she had much of a chance. It just smells of corruption

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