UFC on ESPN+ 17 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

At the beginning of September, I said that this would be a tough month for prefight betting, and so far, I am right.

This month’s UFC events are packed full of debutants, low-level athletes and inconsistent fighters. This means that there has been a severe lack of rock-solid opportunities for us to put our money. Instead, we have had to put our money in riskier positions by taking calculated gambles. So far we are 1-2 [wins-losses] on the month for a small loss of around 1 unit in prefight bets.

Last month was completely different because, throughout August, we were treated to multiple rock solid betting opportunities that enabled us to bank a huge profit and go 7-1 on bets [wins-losses].

Over the next couple of weeks, we need to keep things tight. Keep working hard, keep grinding, and try to end the month in profit. Remember that Spring always follows Winter and pretty soon we’ll get some more rock-solid bets to emerge. Remember that we would have had one last weekend if it had not been for the fight cancellation between Marvin Vettori and Andrew Sanchez.

I’ll continue to work hard, and I’ll let you know as soon as I find any bets.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Jeremy Stephens vs Yair Rodriguez 2 units on Jeremy Stephens to win at odds of 1.91 | -110 | 91/100 Stephens to win
Alexa Grasso vs Carla Esparza No bet Esparza to win
Askar Askarov vs Brandon Moreno No bet Askarov to win
Irene Aldana vs Vanessa Melo No bet Aldana to win
Martin Bravo vs Steven Peterson No bet Peterson to win
Carlos Huachin vs Jose Quinonez No bet Quinonez to win
Kyle Nelson vs Polo Reyes No bet Reyes to win
Angela Hill vs Ariane Carnelossi No bet Carnelossi to win
Sergio Pettis vs Tyson Nam No bet Pettis to win
Paul Craig vs Vinicius Moreira No bet Moreira to win
Bethe Correia vs Sijara Eubanks No bet Eubanks to win
Claudio Puelles vs Marcos Mariano No bet Puelles to win

Jeremy Stephens vs Yair Rodriguez Betting Tip and Prediction

September has been a month of calculated gambles where we’ve won some and lost some. I now hope that this next calculated gamble will get us back in profit for the month.

One of the most important factors to take into consideration when researching an event taking like this is to try to determine how each fighter is preparing to compete in the high altitude climate of Mexico City. This involves taking extra time to check the Social Media profiles of each fighter competing on the card. I also try to find any interviews they’ve done with media over the last few weeks to find out where they’ve been training and what preparation they have done.

I can confirm that Jeremy Stephens went out to Mexico City around 6 weeks ago so he should have climatized to the altitude by fight time:

Judging by the post below it looks like Yair Rodriguez has traveled to Mexico City to climatize at least 3 weeks before the fight. Yair also has the advantage of previously fighting in Mexico City on a few different occasions.

The above Instagram post translates to:

Verified
Hydration is of the utmost importance, especially when it comes to training at high altitude, in the photo I am in #nevadodetoluca which is more than 14,000 feet equivalent to 4,570 meters.

Jeremy Stephens is a bad stylistic matchup for Yair Rodriguez because Yair has historically struggled to deal with pressure fighters. This is because his Tae Kwon Do style of striking requires him to have time and space to plant his feet and get his kicks off. If you don’t give him space, he becomes significantly less dangerous.

Jeremy Stephens has a high-pressure style of fighting with the power in his hands to inflict significant damage if you don’t stay on your bike and continue to circle away from his power right hand.

For a Tae Kwon Do based fighter, Yair is surprisingly flat-footed and lacks effective footwork to circle on the outside and counter strike. This means that he’ll be forced to use his Boxing to try and create space for himself by backing Jeremy Stephens up. This is unlikely because Yair’s Boxing is quite poor.

Yair’s flat-footed style of Tae Kwon Do could also get him into trouble in this matchup because he stands very heavy on his lead leg and Jeremy Stephens has vicious leg kicks.

Neither guy is a particularly strong offensive wrestler, so I do expect this to be a standup fight.

In a standup fight, I give Jeremy Stephens a decent advantage because he’s got the chin and footwork to fight his way inside to a range where he can use his Boxing to inflict significant damage on Yair. Yair simply does not have the Boxing to back Stephens up.

Like with any bet, there are risks, and there are three major risks with betting Jeremy Stephens that we have to factor into our decision to bet him. The first risk factor is that Yair Rodriguez is a popular Mexican fighter, so he’ll have home advantage on his side. If this ends up being a close fight, the judges are much more likely to award Rodriguez the decision.

The second risk factor is that Yair is a flashy, unorthodox, and unpredictable striker. He doesn’t really have the power in his hands to hurt Stephens with Boxing, but he could score a flash KO with one of his trademark, highlight-reel attacks.

The third and in my opinion, the most significant risk factor to take into consideration is that at times Stephens is guilty of headhunting. He throws rounds away by stalking his opponent around the Octagon trying to land the killer shot. In these kinds of rounds, he throws such a low volume of strikes that it becomes easy to outpoint him and outwork him in that round. Having said that, Yair’s footwork isn’t great, and he struggles to land effective strikes while moving backward, so maybe I am overly cautious of this risk factor.

Jeremy Stephens isn’t a rock-solid bet, but his current average odds of around 1.91 | -110 | 91/100 carry an implied probability of just 52%. I can confidently cap him at approximately 60% here, which means we’re getting a generous 8% margin over the bookies. Stephens is a bad stylistic matchup for Rodriguez. Let’s hope that he can come through for us.

Reasons for betting on Jeremy Stephens

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Jeremy Stephens has a high pressure style of fighting.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Yair Rodriguez struggles against pressure fighters.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Yair Rodriguez doesn’t have the Boxing or footwork to prevent Stephens from coming forward.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Jeremy Stephens is a significantly better Boxer than Yair Rodriguez.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Yair Rodriguez has a predominantly kicks based style of fighting. He needs time and space to set his kicks up. Jeremy Stephens is a high pressure fighter who won’t give him that kind of time and space.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Jeremy Stephens is extremely tough and he has a great chin.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Jeremy Stephens has excellent cardio and he gets stronger as the fight goes on. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Yair Rodriguez stands heavy on his lead leg, which will open him up to Stephens’ vicious leg kicks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Jeremy Stephens has legit 1 shot KO power in every strike.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Yair Rodriguez is not an effective counter striker.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on Jeremy Stephens

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Yair Rodriguez has home advantage on his side.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Yair Rodriguez is a dangerous, explosive striker.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]At times Jeremy Stephens throws a low volume of strikes when he tries to head hunt his opponent.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Jeremy Stephens to win

Recommended Stake

2 units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.91
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 91/100

52%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jeremy Stephens has a 52% chance of beating Yair Rodriguez based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Jeremy Stephens has a 60% chance of beating Yair Rodriguez based on my extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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