UFC on ESPN+ 21 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till came through for us in a big way last weekend to help us kick November off with a profit.

2019 has been a solid year for us so far. I promise you that I am working extremely hard behind the scenes to give us the best chance possible of finishing the year strong. We now turn our attention to UFC on ESPN+ 21 in Russia. Let’s hope we can bank another profit.

Klidson Abreu vs Shamil Gamzatov Betting Tip and Prediction

I was hoping to find some rock-solid positions to put our money in this weekend to build on our profits from UFC 244 last week. Unfortunately, up until this point, I’ve only been able to find one strong position to put our money in, and it’s a high-risk gamble on Klidson Abreu to beat Shamil Gamzatov. As ever with these high-risk bets, if you struggle to deal with losing, I recommend that you don’t tail this. This is a 50 / 50 fight that could go either way.

Abreu is a fantastic bet at his current odds of 2.70 | +170 | 17/10 for an Implied Probability of just 37%, but there’s a significant chance that he’ll lose. I still have a lot of research to do for this weekend’s MMA events. Hopefully, I’ll find some more decent bets for us on UFC Moscow, KSW 51, and Bellator 233.

Shamil Gamzatov looks very good on paper. He’s undefeated at 12-0, he’s got a great beard, and he trains with Khabib Nurmagomedov’s Dad in Dagestan. Unfortunately for Gamzatov, though, fights are fought in a cage, not on paper, and when you take a look at his past fights, you’ll see that he’s super average, and his record is very padded. Take a look and see for yourself:

You can spend the next few minutes listening to me ramble on about why Abreu is a good bet here, but the best thing you can do is watch Gamzatov’s past fights and see for yourself. Unfortunately, his past fights are not going to be as easy as just linking to fights for you to watch…

Gamzatov’s last few fights can only be found on an Asian video site called YouKu. This video site will not work well in many parts of the world. I have found that downloading their mobile app and manually searching for these fights/events will work much better. You can get these videos to work, but you may have to mess around with multiple devices and browsers before you’ll manage to get them working properly.

You can watch Gamzatov’s last fight against Rex Harris below or search for “PFL 6 Cooper vs Kusch” on the YouKu mobile app:

You can watch another one of Gamzatov’s recent fights against Eddie Gordon below. Alternatively, search for “PFL 3 Washington” on the Youku app.

Finally, you can watch a fight of Gamzatov’s from way back in 2017 here:

After watching all of Abreu’s and Gamzatov’s recent fights, I can tell you that the odds are way off here. There’s no way that Gamzatov should be a 1.53 | -189 | 53/100 favorite, which commands an Implied Probability of 65%. Those odds are quite frankly insane. I believe that the odds may be significantly off in this fight because Gamzatov’s recent fights are difficult to find online. Perhaps the bookies set an inaccurate opening line like they often do, and the public hasn’t corrected it because most people are struggling to find Gamzatov’s recent fights. They just see an undefeated Russian and assume he should be a big favorite against Abreu.

There are a lot of reasons to bet Abreu in this fight. On the most basic of levels, we know that he’s very tough and has decent cardio. No one can question his heart after he had his nose crushed by Ankalaev early in his UFC debut and went on to continue fighting for another 10 minutes. We’ve also seen him fight at a decent pace in his two UFC fights against Sam Alvey and Ankalaev and not slow down.

Abreu is also a Southpaw with reasonably fast hands and nasty leg kicks. Gamzatov is such a basic, average striker that even Abreu just being a Southpaw could be enough to cause an inexperienced striker like Gamzatov big problems.

From a technical point of view, Abreu also has an advantage almost everywhere. Gamzatov appears to be primarily a striker but doesn’t have much power in his hands, and as the fight wears on, he tends to get sloppier. Abreu’s striking isn’t great either, but he is game, and he does hit hard. Neither guy will have a big advantage over the other when it comes to striking, but I’d much rather side with the tough, gritty Southpaw who already has two UFC fights under his belt.

We also have to take into consideration the fact that Abreu appears to be taking his career very seriously. He’s only 26 years old and training full time at ATT so he should be making big improvements from fight to fight. He’s also dropping to Middleweight for the first time for this fight, so it’s likely he’ll look a lot faster and sharper. He always looked a bit soft and out of shape at 205.

With Gamzatov also being young and training at a decent camp with Khabib’s Dad, it’s difficult to quantify how much he will have improved since we last saw him against Rex Harris. Having said that, based on past performances, Abreu should have a big advantage on the ground. We’ve seen from Gamzatov’s past fights that he has bad takedown defense, and he’s weak off his back. In contrast, Abreu trained at Evolucao for many years with Sergio Moraes, so he’s a decent wrestler and also has a very good level of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

I also like Abreu in this fight because he’s a young guy with 2 UFC fights under his belt and previous experience competing in Russia for the RCC promotion. This will be Gamzatov’s UFC debut, and we know that a large percentage of fighters lose when they make their debut because it takes time for them to get used to competing under the bright lights of the UFC.

Abreu is obviously still green at just 26 years old, and he’s never going to be a rock-solid bet when he’s fighting a tough Russian in Russia, but there’s no doubt that he has the skills to win this. His current odds of around 2.70 | +170 | 17/10 are straight up disrespectful. Based on past performances, this is, at worst, a 50/50 fight; you could even make a strong case for Abreu being the favorite.

As I said, this is a high-risk bet that could go either way. But we’re getting a decent risk to reward ratio on Abreu. Let’s just hope that he comes through for us.

Reasons for betting on Klidson Abreu