UFC on ESPN 7 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

We took plenty of high-risk gambles in November, which turned out to be a mixed bag of results. We hit some decent ones like Arlene Blencowe and Darren Till, but unfortunately lost more than we won. We ended up closing out the month with a small overall loss of -2.44 units. It is worth noting that the split decision loss on Klidson Abreu was a 2.70 unit swing that would have put us in a small profit for the month.

We did a bit better on Live Betting, but nothing major. We ended up banking an overall profit of 2 units.

It goes without saying that November was a tricky month for betting on MMA! Thankfully December looks like it could be much better. I’ve already identified a couple of rock-solid prefight bets for us over the next few weeks.

December is shaping up to be a massive month for betting on MMA. We have 1 KSW event, 2 Bellator events, 3 UFC events, and a stacked Bellator / Rizin collaboration event on the 29th of December. As ever, I’ll be fully researching all of these events to give us the best chance of ending the month with a profit.

Fight Betting Tip The bet with the best risk to reward ratio
Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik No bet Rozenstruik to win
Aspen Ladd vs Yana Kunitskaya No bet Ladd to win
Ben Rothwell vs Stefan Struve No bet Rothwell to win
Cody Stamann vs Yadong Song No bet Song to win
Billy Quarantillo vs Jacob Kilburn No bet Kilburn to win
Cynthia Calvillo vs Marina Rodriguez No bet Rodriguez to win
Ricky Simon vs Rob Font No bet Simon to win
Bryce Mitchell vs Matt Sayles No bet Sayles to win
Joe Solecki vs Matt Wiman No bet Solecki to win
Tim Means vs Thiago Alves No bet Means to win
Mallory Martin vs Virna Jandiroba No bet Martin to win
Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith 5 units on Makhmud Muradov to win at odds of 1.31 | -323 | 31/100 Muradov to win

Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith Betting Tip and Prediction

I don’t usually like to bet on guys at such steep favorite odds like what we currently see with Muradov, but I’ve spent the last few days hunting for a suitable 2nd leg to put into a parlay/accumulator with him and haven’t found anyone suitable. In my search, I researched all the other heavy favorites on this card, which included Tim Means, Yadong Song, Joe Solecki, and Virna Jandiroba. I also looked ahead to UFC 245 to see if there would be any value on Petr Yan, Amanda Nunes, Geoff Neal, or Matt Brown.

MMA is such a crazy, unpredictable sport that it’s difficult to cap fighters in the range that is required in order to gain value on heavy favorites. This is why we have to pass on all the fighters above despite the fact that most of them should win easily. The problem with these kinds of bets is that you need to hit a very high win rate to be profitable on them, and the fighter’s advantages are almost always baked into the odds.

To bet someone in the odds range of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5 or worse, they need to tick every box, and in MMA, it’s rare that a fighter ticks every box. Fortunately for us, Makhmud Muradov is a guy that ticks every box. Makhmud Muradov is a heavy favorite, but we can’t afford to turn our nose up at a hopefully easy 30% return on our money. Maybe you can find something in another sport to parlay with him.

This should be an easy winner because Makhmud Muradov has an advantage over Trevor Smith in pretty much every single aspect of MMA. I expect this fight to be a total demolition. Trevor Smith is now 38 years old and way past his prime. He is declining from fight to fight, and he doesn’t have the cardio to fight at a high pace for 3 rounds. Smith is primarily a wrestler, but at this stage in his career, he doesn’t have a very heavy top game, and his takedown attempts come high above his opponent’s hips. Muradov does a great job of getting deep underhooks in play early, which makes it very difficult to take him down. He’s also fast, athletic, and explosive, which makes it very difficult to hold him down. Muradov is a young, hungry bull who is also a very strong wrestler. At this stage in their careers, it’s very likely that Muradov will have the grappling advantage over Smith.

If the fight stays standing, Muradov should completely dominate. He is lightyears ahead of Smith when it comes to striking, and it’s very likely that he wins this fight by KO. Muradov is ruthlessly accurate, carries legit KO power in every strike, and his technique is razor-sharp.

When it comes to betting on a heavy favorite, the main thing that we need to establish is the risk of a fighter losing. That may sound obvious, but there’s no room for error when you’re betting on heavy favorites. In this case, I don’t believe there’s much risk of Smith, causing an upset because Muradov is simply better everywhere. He’s also very tough and has better cardio than Smith. It’s also significantly unlikely that Smith was to submit Muradov or score a flash KO because Smith is not a finisher. Smith hasn’t finished anyone since he submitted Alexander Moreno 7 years ago at BXC: The rise. He’s fought 11 times in the UFC and never finished anyone

There is always going to be risk with every bet, but after researching this fight, I can’t see any realistic path to victory for Smith. Muradov only loses this if something crazy happens like he fights with an injury, gets disqualified or significantly underperforms compared to what we usually see from him. Something crazy could definitely happen, and Muradov could lose. After all, this is MMA. But it’s very unlikely. I actually think there’s value here at his current odds, despite him being a big favorite.

Reasons for betting on Makhmud Muradov

  • Makhmud Muradov is better than Trevor Smith in pretty much every single aspect of MMA.
  • Makhmud Muradov will hold a significant advantage over Trevor Smith when it comes to striking.
  • Trevor Smith is very slow, very stiff and has really bad striking defense.
  • Makhmud Muradov carries legit 1 shot KO power in every strike.
  • Makhmud Muradov throws a wide range of strikes. His attacks are very diverse. The shots that KO you are the ones you don’t see coming and Muradov’s high level, technical striking should cause Smith big problems.
  • Trevor Smith will be very vulnerable to the KO in this fight.
  • Trevor Smith is now way past his prime at 38 years old and declining from fight to fight.
  • Makhmud Muradov is only 29 years old, he should be improving from fight to fight.
  • Makhmud Muradov has excellent takedown defense. He does a great job of getting deep underhooks in play nice and early.
  • Makhmud Muradov is extremely difficult to hold down.
  • Makhmud Muradov has the cardio to outwork Smith by a wide margin over 3 rounds.
  • All of Trevor Smith’s takedown attempts come from the clinch or high above his opponents hips. Makhmud Muradov’s ability to get deep underhooks in play early, makes it very unlikely that Smith will be able to have any success with these techniques.

Risk Factors with betting on Makhmud Muradov

  • Makhmud Muradov is taking this fight on about 1 month’s notice.
  • Makhmud Muradov is wild and wreckless at times.
  • Trevor Smith has a reasonably heavy top game.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.
  • Makhmud Muradov slowed down in the 3rd round of his UFC debut against Alessio Di Chirico, although that shouldn’t matter here because Smith has worse cardio and he doesn’t have the chin or striking defense to pressure Muradov like Di Chirico could.

My Betting Tip

Makhmud Muradov to win

Recommended Stake

5 Units

[5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.31
Moneyline = -323
Fractional = 31/100

76%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Makhmud Muradov has a 76% chance of beating Trevor Smith based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Makhmud Muradov has an 80% chance of beating Trevor Smith based on my extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

2 Comments

  1. During rough times it’s important to remember the good luck we have .. We got 3 units refunded by the dodgy scorecards after we live bet Craig Paul 👌 and saved 3 units cos Zabit didn’t shoot a td round 1 so defo had some good luck I can remember last month 😊 Hope that helps you avoid tilt and memory bias mate 😉

    1. These examples are not at all relevant because when bad judging goes against us, it costs us money.

      The examples you mentioned have nothing to do with judging costing us money because we didn’t bet 3 units on Paul Craig, so not sure what you mean by that.

      It was predominantly the research and reading how the fight would likely play out which resulted in us not betting the Zabit vs Kattar fight. Again, that had nothing to do with judging or luck.

      I never Tilt and my ability to drown out memory bias is extremely strong. I’m not sure what point you are trying to make. 😉

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