We took plenty of high-risk gambles in November, which turned out to be a mixed bag of results. We hit some decent ones like Arlene Blencowe and Darren Till, but unfortunately lost more than we won. We ended up closing out the month with a small overall loss of -2.44 units. It is worth noting that the split decision loss on Klidson Abreu was a 2.70 unit swing that would have put us in a small profit for the month.
We did a bit better on Live Betting, but nothing major. We ended up banking an overall profit of 2 units.
It goes without saying that November was a tricky month for betting on MMA! Thankfully December looks like it could be much better. I’ve already identified a couple of rock-solid prefight bets for us over the next few weeks.
December is shaping up to be a massive month for betting on MMA. We have 1 KSW event, 2 Bellator events, 3 UFC events, and a stacked Bellator / Rizin collaboration event on the 29th of December. As ever, I’ll be fully researching all of these events to give us the best chance of ending the month with a profit.
|Fight||Betting Tip||The bet with the best risk to reward ratio|
|Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik||No bet||Rozenstruik to win|
|Aspen Ladd vs Yana Kunitskaya||No bet||Ladd to win|
|Ben Rothwell vs Stefan Struve||No bet||Rothwell to win|
|Cody Stamann vs Yadong Song||No bet||Song to win|
|Billy Quarantillo vs Jacob Kilburn||No bet||Kilburn to win|
|Cynthia Calvillo vs Marina Rodriguez||No bet||Rodriguez to win|
|Ricky Simon vs Rob Font||No bet||Simon to win|
|Bryce Mitchell vs Matt Sayles||No bet||Sayles to win|
|Joe Solecki vs Matt Wiman||No bet||Solecki to win|
|Tim Means vs Thiago Alves||No bet||Means to win|
|Mallory Martin vs Virna Jandiroba||No bet||Martin to win|
|Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith||5 units on Makhmud Muradov to win at odds of 1.31 | -323 | 31/100||Muradov to win|
Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith Betting Tip and Prediction
I don’t usually like to bet on guys at such steep favorite odds like what we currently see with Muradov, but I’ve spent the last few days hunting for a suitable 2nd leg to put into a parlay/accumulator with him and haven’t found anyone suitable. In my search, I researched all the other heavy favorites on this card, which included Tim Means, Yadong Song, Joe Solecki, and Virna Jandiroba. I also looked ahead to UFC 245 to see if there would be any value on Petr Yan, Amanda Nunes, Geoff Neal, or Matt Brown.
MMA is such a crazy, unpredictable sport that it’s difficult to cap fighters in the range that is required in order to gain value on heavy favorites. This is why we have to pass on all the fighters above despite the fact that most of them should win easily. The problem with these kinds of bets is that you need to hit a very high win rate to be profitable on them, and the fighter’s advantages are almost always baked into the odds.
To bet someone in the odds range of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5 or worse, they need to tick every box, and in MMA, it’s rare that a fighter ticks every box. Fortunately for us, Makhmud Muradov is a guy that ticks every box. Makhmud Muradov is a heavy favorite, but we can’t afford to turn our nose up at a hopefully easy 30% return on our money. Maybe you can find something in another sport to parlay with him.
This should be an easy winner because Makhmud Muradov has an advantage over Trevor Smith in pretty much every single aspect of MMA. I expect this fight to be a total demolition. Trevor Smith is now 38 years old and way past his prime. He is declining from fight to fight, and he doesn’t have the cardio to fight at a high pace for 3 rounds. Smith is primarily a wrestler, but at this stage in his career, he doesn’t have a very heavy top game, and his takedown attempts come high above his opponent’s hips. Muradov does a great job of getting deep underhooks in play early, which makes it very difficult to take him down. He’s also fast, athletic, and explosive, which makes it very difficult to hold him down. Muradov is a young, hungry bull who is also a very strong wrestler. At this stage in their careers, it’s very likely that Muradov will have the grappling advantage over Smith.
If the fight stays standing, Muradov should completely dominate. He is lightyears ahead of Smith when it comes to striking, and it’s very likely that he wins this fight by KO. Muradov is ruthlessly accurate, carries legit KO power in every strike, and his technique is razor-sharp.
When it comes to betting on a heavy favorite, the main thing that we need to establish is the risk of a fighter losing. That may sound obvious, but there’s no room for error when you’re betting on heavy favorites. In this case, I don’t believe there’s much risk of Smith, causing an upset because Muradov is simply better everywhere. He’s also very tough and has better cardio than Smith. It’s also significantly unlikely that Smith was to submit Muradov or score a flash KO because Smith is not a finisher. Smith hasn’t finished anyone since he submitted Alexander Moreno 7 years ago at BXC: The rise. He’s fought 11 times in the UFC and never finished anyone
There is always going to be risk with every bet, but after researching this fight, I can’t see any realistic path to victory for Smith. Muradov only loses this if something crazy happens like he fights with an injury, gets disqualified or significantly underperforms compared to what we usually see from him. Something crazy could definitely happen, and Muradov could lose. After all, this is MMA. But it’s very unlikely. I actually think there’s value here at his current odds, despite him being a big favorite.
Reasons for betting on Makhmud Muradov
Risk Factors with betting on Makhmud Muradov
My Betting Tip
Makhmud Muradov to win
[5% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.31
Moneyline = -323
Fractional = 31/100
The bookies believe that Makhmud Muradov has a 76% chance of beating Trevor Smith based on their current odds.