We’ve made a profit on the last 6 consecutive Bellator events and I expect to keep this run going by making even more money on Bellator 151. After spending several hours researching this event, I believe I’ve found two rock solid bets that can help us kick off March with a profit.
Here are my betting tips, picks and predictions for Bellator 151…
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Fernando Gonzalez vs Gilbert Smith Betting Tip Prediction
This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup with Fernando Gonzalez being the striker and Gilbert Smith being the grappler. These types of fights often come down to whether or not the striker can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled against the cage.
Gilbert Smith is primarily a grappler, but his offensive wrestling is poor, his top control is weak and his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu is nothing special. His strongest position is the clinch and his main strategy is to pin his opponents against the cage and grind on them. This is a bad strategy for Smith to use because he has a very muscular frame and poor cardio, so he doesn’t have the gas tank to back up his grinding style of fighting. This becomes an even bigger problem when he fights against guys who make him work really hard for takedowns. Fernando Gonzalez’s takedown defence isn’t great, but he does do a good job of scrambling back to his feet when he gets taken down and he also does a great job of keeping his back off the cage. It’s not easy to control Gonzalez against the cage or on the ground, which makes this a really difficult fight for Gilbert Smith.
When I look at a fighter like Gilbert Smith, I see a guy who chooses to employ a grappling based style of fighting because he does not feel comfortable in striking exchanges. Gilbert Smith’s style of fighting is “Panic Wrestler”, because he will do anything he can to avoid having to strike with his opponent. Fernando Gonzalez is scrappy on the ground and does a great job of creating scrambles. Gilbert Smith is going to have to use up a lot of energy if he wants to maintain a dominant position over Gonzalez and I don’t believe he has the cardio to keep up with the pace that Gonzalez sets.
Fernando Gonzalez has a massive advantage over Gilbert Smith when it comes to striking. This is backed up by the fact that Gonzalez managed to remain competitive in striking exchanges against Paul Daley in his last fight. Gonzalez’s Boxing is excellent and it’s going to be very difficult for almost any Welterweight in Bellator to keep up with the volume of strikes that he lands.
It’s also worth noting that Gilbert Smith is taking this fight on just 2 weeks notice. This isn’t good for a guy that has a history of bad cardio. I believe this gives Fernando Gonzalez a big advantage because he fights at a relentless pace and has cardio for days. One of Gonzalez’s biggest weapons is his cardio and because of this he almost always wins the 3rd round of a fight. This means that he only has to win 1 of the first 2 rounds to win this fight by decision. We also have to take into consideration the fact that Gonzalez was scheduled to fight Michael Page on this card. This would have been the biggest fight of his life, which probably means that he has trained extremely hard for this match up.
Gilbert Smith is in big trouble if Fernando Gonzalez can keep this fight standing and I believe that he can keep it standing. Gilbert may land the odd takedown, but I don’t believe he’ll be able to do anything with it and I don’t believe he’ll be able to control Gonzalez on the ground for very long.
Fernando Gonzalez fights at a relentless pace and has an exciting, crowd pleasing style. In contrast, Gilbert Smith’s style of fighting is one dimensional, predictable and boring. As a result, it’s not going to be easy for him to win a decision against an exciting striker like Gonzalez who will almost certainly have the more exciting moments in every round. Gonzalez has so many more ways to win this fight and I believe that he is a great bet at underdog odds.
OUR BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Fernando Gonzalez to win at odds of 2.35 | +135 | 27/20
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Joe Taimanglo vs Sirwan Kakai Betting Tip Prediction
Sirwan Kakai is making his debut at Bellator 151 after going 1-1 in the UFC. I was really surprised when the UFC cut Kakai, because he is young, exciting and always comes to fight. This is one of those fights where Kakai doesn’t have a specific path of victory, he’s just simply better than Joe Taimanglo in every single aspect of MMA.
From a technical point of view, Kakai has excellent offensive striking, excellent defensive striking, great footwork, good head movement and strong wrestling. His ground game is also solid and he does a great job of putting everything together. This doesn’t mean that Taimanglo is particularly bad at anything, it just means that Kakai is better at everything.
If this fight stays standing, I expect Kakai to use his fast hands, diverse range of strikes and excellent footwork to pick Taimanglo apart. If it goes to the ground, I expect it to be because Kakai has successfully landed a takedown. Taimanglo is a decent enough wrestler, but Kakai’s takedown defence is exceptional and Taimanglo doesn’t have the strongest wrestling or top control. If this fight does end up going to the ground, I expect Kakai to dominate.
Taimanglo is an experienced fighter with an impressive professional MMA record of 21-6, but he’s never faced anyone that puts it all together as well as Kakai. There’s really not a lot I can say about how Kakai will win this fight, because I honestly believe that he can beat Taimanglo in any area that this matchup takes place. This bet should be an easy winner because Taimanglo doesn’t have the work rate, submission game or knockout power to beat Kakai.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Sirwan Kakai to win at odds of 1.33 | -300 | 3/10[/private]
