VIP Betting Picks & Predictions for WSOF 30 – Branch vs Starks

Our record for betting on the WSOF is excellent. Over the last two years we’ve made a profit on 7 out of the 9 WSOF events that we’ve bet on. I expect to keep this outstanding 7-2 winning record going by making even more money from our bets on WSOF 30. Here are our betting results for the WSOF since we setup this website 2 years ago…

WSOF 30 Betting - Starks vs Branch

WSOF 30 is really good for betting and I feel confident that both of our betting tips for this event will win. I don’t believe the oddsmakers did their homework on these fights, because I believe there’s a very good amount of value in both of the fighters that we’re betting on. One of our betting tips for WSOF 30 is a big underdog, which gives us a great opportunity to make a big profit on this event. This is the first major MMA event in April and I feel very confident that we’re going to kick off the month with a win!

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Jon Fitch vs Joao Zeferino Betting Tip Prediction

Jon Fitch is a really bad match up for Joao Zeferino because Zeferino has a bad habit of giving up dominant positions whilst going for submission attempts. This plays right into the strengths of a guy like Jon Fitch who almost never gives up a dominant position once he obtains it.

Joao Zeferino and Jon Fitch are both Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belts and primarily grapplers, but Fitch’s style of grappling is way more effective in MMA. Fitch uses his BJJ and wrestling together to create a relentless, smothering style of fighting that is very similar to the style of fighting utilized by Demian Maia. You will very rarely see Fitch go for a submission or try to advance his position on the ground and this is because he always favours position over submission. As an MMA bettor, I love this kind of strategy, because Fitch doesn’t give his opponents many opportunities to put him in a bad position or gain an advantage on the ground.

One of the reasons why Fitch’s style of relentless, grinding, grappling is so effective is because he fights very safe. When he shoots for a takedown, he’ll always come in at an angle so that he’s already in side control or a position to take his opponent’s back when they hit the ground. This means that it’s very difficult for opponent’s to catch him in a Guillotine whilst being taken down, because Fitch almost always completes a takedown into a half guard or side control position.

Fitch’s ability to quickly gain Side Control or Half Guard from a takedown makes him an extremely difficult opponent for even the most skilled grapplers. He also does a really good job of staying busy with ground and pound which makes it difficult for his opponent’s to create scrambles and it also makes it difficult for the referee to justify standing him up.

Joao Zeferino is a tricky Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter but he has poor cardio which means he’s not that dangerous past the first round. Fitch has a relentless, grinding style of fighting and I don’t believe Zeferino has the cardio or conditioning to keep up with him for 5 rounds. It’s also worth noting that Fitch has the experience of competing in 5 rounds fights in the past, whereas this will be the first time that Zeferino has ever been involved in a 5 round fight. This gives Fitch a distinct advantage because he’ll be more experienced at pacing himself in a long fight. This puts Zeferino at a disadvantage because Zeferino has poor cardio in 3 round fights, let alone 5 round fights. I just don’t see any way that Zeferino will be able to keep up with the pace that Jon Fitch sets for 25 minutes.

Jon Fitch is also a really bad matchup for Zeferino because Zeferino has bad takedown defence and he’s far too accepting of bottom position. We see this in a lot of the fighters that train with Renzo Gracie, but it’s a deeply flawed fighting system because it’s extremely hard to win a fight off your back. Fitch has strong wrestling and he can hit takedowns from multiple positions. He also does a good job of chaining takedown attempts together, so you’ll never see him waste too much energy on one attempt. If Fitch goes for a single and it’s stuffed, he’ll move to a double. If the opponent stuffs the double, he’ll fight in the clinch and look for a full body lock or trip. If he can’t get the full body lock, he’ll fight for underhooks and put his opponent against the cage. His fight IQ is truly excellent and you’ll very rarely see him wasting energy. Fitch’s ability to transition between takedown attempts also sucks the energy out of his opponent because they’re constantly having to use different muscles to defend different types of takedowns.

Joao Zeferino and Jon Fitch are both low level strikers who definitely prefer to grapple. This is backed up by the fact that Zeferino has only won 2 fights with strikes in his 27 fight career. Fitch’s striking is equally harmless having only won 4 fights with strikes in his 35 fight career. I believe it’s extremely unlikely that either of these guys will score a knockout because they’ve only won a total of 6 fights with strikes in a combined total of 62 career fights.

Jon Fitch has shown throughout his career that he is incredibly tough and incredibly difficult to finish. Zeferino’s striking is very basic and scrappy and after the first couple of rounds he doesn’t have the cardio to hurt his opponent’s with strikes. This makes it unlikely that he will be able to hurt Fitch standing up.

Zeferino does have tricky Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but Fitch has only been submitted 3 times in 35 pro fights. This is an extremely impressive statistic when you take into consideration the fact that Fitch has fought some of the best grapplers in the history of the Welterweight division. His long list of opponents include Demian Maia, Erick Silva, Johny Hendricks, BJ Penn, Mike Pierce, Ben Saunders, Roan Carneiro and George St-Pierre. All of these grappling monsters failed to submit Fitch.

Only losing by submission 3 times in 35 pro fights is impressive, but it’s even more impressive when you look into the details behind each of those submission losses. Afterall, his first submission loss came in his Pro debut against Mike Pyle over 14 years ago, his second submission loss came after he was badly rocked by a huge punch against Josh Burkman and his most recent submission loss came via leg lock at the hands of Rousimar Palharaes, who is an absolute beast on the ground. Again, anything can happen in MMA, but I’d be truly shocked if Zeferino was able to catch Fitch in a submission.

I love betting on Jon Fitch because he’s very economical in his attacks and his fight IQ is second to none. Fitch always does exactly what he needs to do to win. It might not be pretty to watch, but it is highly effective, especially against guys like Joao Zeferino who have poor takedown defence, poor striking and poor cardio.

I believe Jon Fitch will easily win this fight by taking Zeferino down at will and grinding him out from top position. Jon Fitch isn’t known for his finishing ability, but Zeferino has shown poor cardio throughout his career and I just don’t see him lasting 5 rounds. I believe Fitch will win this fight with ground and pound in the 4th or 5th round when Zeferino should be gassed out of his mind.

This bet should be an easy winner. The first couple of rounds might be close but after that it should be all Fitch.

OUR BETTING TIP: 4 Units [4% of your bankroll] on Jon Fitch to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2

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Jake Heun vs Vinny Magalhaes Betting Tip Prediction

Jake Heun vs Vinny Magalhaes is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. This means that Jake Heun will have a big advantage if this fight stays standing, whilst Vinny Magalhaes will have a big advantage if it goes to the ground.

Vinny Magalhaes has extremely high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and his ground game is some of the best you’ll see in MMA. Unfortunately, like with many competition based BJJ practitioners, he lacks the offensive wrestling to get fights to the ground. If Vinny Magalhaes could wrestle, he’d be a force in MMA, but his inability to incorporate offensive wrestling into his skillset has resulted in him spending the majority of his career in the MMA minor leagues.

If Magalhaes can get Jake Heun to the ground, Jake is in big trouble, but that won’t be easy because Jake is a big, strong, well rounded fighter who trains out of American Top Team. Jake’s ground game is nowhere near the level of Vinny’s, but his takedown defence is reasonably good and he’s also a reasonably strong wrestler.

Vinny’s inability to incorporate striking and wrestling into his BJJ based skillset is the reason why he has an unimpressive MMA record of 13-7. If you can keep a fight standing against Vinny, you’ll almost always win and that’s why Jake Heun is such a great bet at big underdog odds…

Vinny Magalhaes has been able to use his high level BJJ to rack up a ton of submission wins throughout his career, but what’s interesting about most of these wins is that his opponent’s have chosen to engage in grappling with him. They’ve either tried to clinch with Vinny or shoot for a takedown and from there Vinny has been able to drag the fight to the ground and implement his high level BJJ. When fighters focus on keeping a fight standing against Magalhaes, they normally have a lot of success and they almost always end up beating him.

I believe Jake Heun is a great bet in this fight because Vinny Magalhaes is a very easy opponent to gameplan for. You know exactly what you’re getting from him. All his performances are the same, there are never any surprises or improvements. Vinny literally has no stand up and barely any offensive wrestling, so if you maintain distance and avoid being dragged to the ground you will almost always beat him. Jake Heun is a young, ambitious fighter who trains at American Top Team. He’s got world class coaches behind him and his striking is at a level where he can easily win this fight if he can keep it standing.

Vinny’s biggest problem is that he has no heart. If he can’t secure an early takedown, he looks for a way out. Vinny is one of the biggest flakes in all of MMA. He was famously bullied by his housemates on Season 8 of the Ultimate Fighter because he didn’t like to get hit. This is something that has plagued him throughout his career and he’ll often turtle up and quit if his opponent lands anything significant on him. Vinny looks very uncomfortable striking and his style is basic and predictable. Heun should absolutely destroy him if this fight stays standing.

Jake Heun is big, strong and he hits very hard. He’s also very scrappy and he likes to go to war. Jake doesn’t mind getting into a scrap and Vinny will absolutely not want to trade shots with Jake. Every fight starts standing and Jake Heun is very aggressive. I don’t think Vinny has the heart or skills to hang with Jake if he can’t get this fight to the ground within the first couple of minutes. I believe Jake has good enough takedown defence to keep this fight standing and I believe he’ll eventually break Vinny with his powerful strikes.

Vinny Magalhaes’ lack of heart also carries over into his training because he has shown terrible cardio throughout his career. He’s ok if fights take place on the ground, but standing he looks like a sweaty, gassed out mess after 5 minutes. If Jake can avoid going to the ground in the 1st round he should win this fight on pure cardio and athleticism. Vinny just does not have the cardio or heart to fight for more than 5 minutes unless the fight is taking place on the ground where he feels most comfortable.

This isn’t a rock solid bet because Vinny Magalhaes does have a huge advantage on the ground, but fights start standing and Vinny lacks the offensive wrestling to take Heun down. If Heun can keep this fight standing, he should win easily. I’m about 60% – 70% confident that Jake Heun will win this fight, so at the current odds I feel he’s a great bet. I believe, at worst, that this fight should be capped at pickem odds, which means we’re getting a really good amount of value in the current odds on Heun to win. Heun is young and aggressive, so it’s possible he could over commit to something which may give Vinny an opportunity to drag this fight to the ground, but if he fights smart, maintains range and chips away at Vinny from the outside he should win this fight easily. I believe that Jake Heun will win this fight by knockout or TKO within the first couple of rounds.

OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Jake Heun to win at odds of 3.10 | +210 | 21/10


I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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