VIP Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 83 – Cerrone vs Oliveira

UFC Fight Night 83 is packed full of inconsistent fighters that cannot be trusted with our money. Thankfully, I’ve managed to pick out 3 rock solid fighters who should all easily win. The 3 guys we’re betting on at UFC Fight Night 83 each hold significant advantages over their opponent and I’d be really surprised if we didn’t hit a clean sweep on this event. I fully expect to go 3-0 with these bets… [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Alex Oliveira vs Donald Cerrone Betting Tip Prediction

Donald Cerrone [6 ft 1] and Alex Oliveira [5 ft 11] are both huge for the Lightweight division, so it’s no surprise that both guys have decided to move up to Welterweight now that the new USADA regulations have come into effect. USADA have made it much harder for guys like Cerrone and Oliveira to make 155 pounds, because their testing process makes it much more difficult to get away with using weight cutting aids like Diuretics and even harder to get away with using an IV to rehydrate. When USADA first announced that IVs were going to be banned under their new rules I thought that everyone would just keep on using them. After all… How would USADA know? It’s not like people are going to test positive for putting a needle in their arm. It turns out that USADA’s testing is so advanced, that they can now detect traces of plastic in your blood that comes from the packaging on IV needles. This is one of the main reasons why guys are still looking bad 24 hours after the weigh ins. There are rumours that some fighters are getting around this by using IV needles made of glass instead of metal, because glass needles do not carry traces of plastic packaging like metal needles do. This technique might be something that more fighters do in an effort to try and beat the system, but at the moment, from the way guys have been looking, I’d guess that the majority of fighters are trying to rehydrate naturally without an IV. Donald Cerrone is one of those guys who openly admits to needing an IV to rehydrate after cutting weight. After his loss to Rafael Dos Anjos he said that the weight cut for that fight was one of the worst of his life because he couldn’t use an IV to help his body recover. Cerrone has always looked terrible at weigh ins when he fought in the Featherweight and Lightweight divisions, so I’m really looking forward to seeing how he looks at Welterweight where his body should be stronger and healthier. Over the last year we’ve seen a lot of fighters move up in weight class to avoid difficult weight cuts and it has been a big success for almost all of them. Donald Cerrone has all the skills required to compete with the best in the world in any division, so I’m really hoping that this move up will allow him to reach his full potential. This is one of those match ups where I studied all of Cerrone and Oliveira’s recent fights and came to the conclusion that Oliveira has no path to victory. Cerrone is simply better than him in every single aspect of MMA. Oliveira doesn’t have a single advantage going into this fight and Cerrone should win easily unless something crazy happens. Donald Cerrone’s biggest weakness is that he starts slow and Oliveira’s unorthodox movement means he’s probably going to start slow in this fight too. This is a problem in 3 round fights, because Cerrone can often find himself playing catchup after losing the first round. Cerrone tends to start slow because it takes a while for him to work out his opponent and find his range. When Cerrone does finally find his range, he is extremely dangerous and a 5 round fight suits his style of fighting because he can afford to lose the first round whilst still having plenty of time to win the fight. I have no doubt that Cerrone will start slow in this fight, but I also have no doubt in my mind that he will put on a brutal striking clinic in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds of this fight. If this fight stays standing, Oliveira is doomed. It’s as simple as that. He might have some success early when Cerrone is trying to find his range, but Oliveira lacks the technique to compete with someone as technical as Cerrone. Oliveira’s problem is that he relies on aggression and explosion too much. His attacks center around wrecklessly jumping in and out of his opponent’s range in an effort to land significant strikes. This is a problem because he is very bad defensively and he’s also slow and predictable which makes him easy to counter. You will also see that Oliveira moves in patterns which makes him easy to work out when you spend enough time in the cage with him. Cerrone’s technique is excellent and he’s going to pick Oliveira apart as soon as he finds his range. It becomes clear when you watch Oliveira fight that he doesn’t feel comfortable striking and this is the reason why you will often see him shooting for takedowns and trying to control his opponent against the cage. This is a major weakness in Oliveira’s game because he has very poor wrestling technique, which means he has to use up an incredible amount of energy to maintain his style of fighting. In the 1st round of Oliveira’s fights you’ll see him bouncing around and utilizing a lot of movement, but by the 3rd round of a fight he’s often flat footed and no where near as mobile. This is because his fighting style takes up a lot of energy to maintain and it’s just not an efficient way to fight. Oliveira likes to take fights to the ground, which is confusing because his ground game is very basic. He actually has very poor top control for a big guy and he leaves a lot of openings on the ground. Cerrone has good takedown defence and high level BJJ and Oliveira is going to be in BIG trouble if this fight does end up going to the ground. After watching all of Oliveira’s fights in the UFC I feel confident that he’s going to try and take Cerrone down, but he should be really careful because he might just get what he wished for… Oliveira does not want to be on the ground with a guy like Donald Cerrone. One of Oliveira’s biggest weaknesses is that he fights in straight lines. When he attacks he rushes forward in a straight line and when he’s defending against attacks he also moves back in a straight line. This is a big problem against a very technical fighter like Cerrone who does a great job of cutting angles and circling out of danger when his opponent rushes in. This is a 5 round fight, which is a big advantage for Donald Cerrone because Alex Oliveira has never fought for 5 rounds before and he also has a style of fighting which uses up a lot of energy. Cerrone has enough cardio to go for 5 hard rounds without any problem, whilst Oliveira slows down significantly the longer the fight goes on. Alex Oliveira is a tough guy with a lot of heart and guys like that can go a long way in the UFC, but eventually, they need the technique to back up their fighting spirit and if they don’t have it they hit a wall when they start to fight more skilled opponents. Donald Cerrone is Oliveira’s wall and it’s going to be very hard for him to stay competitive in this fight. Cerrone should win this easily…
OUR BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Donald Cerrone to win at odds of 1.37 | -270 | 37/100 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Dennis Bermudez vs Tatsuya Kawajiri Betting Tip Prediction

Tatsuya Kawajiri is one of the easiest opponents for Dennis Bermudez out of all the fighters currently ranked in the top 15 of the UFC’s Featherweight division. This matchup makes it pretty clear that the UFC are trying to help Bermudez get his career back on track after suffering two devastating losses due to flash knockouts in his last two fights. Bermudez and Kawajiri are both primarily grapplers, but Bermudez has a clear advantage because he’s younger, stronger and a lot more explosive. Kawajiri is now 37 years old and comes from the PRIDE era of MMA when PED usage in the sport was rife. Kawajiri has always had a very muscular frame and you have to wonder how the new USADA drug testing programme is going to effect his performance and conditioning. Dennis Bermudez is currently competing in his prime at just 29 years old, which means he is 8 years younger than Kawajiri. The younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight, which gives Bermudez a significant advantage in this matchup. You also have to take into consideration the fact that Tatsuya Kawajiri has competed in 45 pro MMA fights, with many of those fights going the distance. This is a massive amount of time to spend in real life combat situations and his body must have suffered a tremendous amount of damage within that time. You also have to take into consideration the amount of hard training Kawajiri would have put his body through to prepare for those 45 fights. At 37 years old, Kawajiri’s body is almost certainly battle worn and riddled with injuries. This puts him at a significant disadvantage against a younger, stronger, fresher fighter like Dennis Bermudez. Dennis Bermudez is also a more skilled grappler than Tatsuya Kawajiri. Kawajiri has always struggled to put everything together and I believe he’s going to really struggle to deal with Bermudez’s diversified attacks. Bermudez does a great job of transitioning from striking to grappling to takedowns and this varied approach should be too much for Kawajiri to handle. A big factor in this fight will be the takedown defence and scrambling ability of both guys. Bermudez is very explosive, athletic and has excellent takedown defence. This is backed up by the fact that he has defended 92% of all takedown attempts in 10 fights in the UFC. Bermudez’s compact frame and strong core makes it extremely hard to take him down and even harder to keep him down. If Kawajiri does manage to take Bermudez down, I don’t see him being able to maintain a dominant position for very long. Tatsuya Kawajiri’s takedown defence isn’t bad, but you have to wonder if he’s going to be able to keep up with a young, hungry bull like Dennis Bermudez now that he is 37 years old. In recent fights he has looked laboured in his attacks, which means he’s really going to struggle against Bermudez unless he shows up and demonstrates significant improvements. Dennis Bermudez is a much better striker than Kawajiri and he also lands more than double the amount of strikes per minute. Bermudez is also much faster and much more diverse in his attacks. He also does a great job of using his diverse range of strikes and combos to setup takedown attempts. Kawajiri’s striking is very slow, very basic and very predictable and aside from a few unorthodox spinning attacks he doesn’t really pose any threat at all. This is backed up by the fact that Kawajiri has not won a single fight with strikes in 5 years and he’s only won 4 fights by knockout or TKO in his 45 fight career. Kawajiri’s only chance of winning this fight is catching Bermudez with a crazy flash knockout. Whilst it’s always possible that this could happen, it’s extremely unlikely given the fact that Bermudez is very durable and Kawajiri has only won 4 fights by knockout or TKO in his 45 fight career. Dennis Bermudez is incredibly well rounded and fights at an extremely high pace. I don’t see Kawajiri being able to remain competitive with him in any area that this fight could take place and I also don’t believe that Kawajiri will be able to keep up with the pace that Bermudez sets.
OUR BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Dennis Bermudez to win at odds of 1.36 | -278 | 9/25 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Augusto Mendes vs Cody Garbrandt Betting Tip Prediction

Augusto Mendes has been branded as a dangerous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Champion by the MMA media, but the truth is that he’s a very poor fighter who is no where near UFC level. His 5-0 record may make it seem like he is an exciting prospect, but that record consists of wins over a very low level of opponent. Here are the MMA records of all the guys that Mendes has beaten: Donald Williams = 3-7 Evan Martinez = 4-1 Richard Delfin = 1-2 Omar Castro = 4-3 Xavier Ramirez = 0-5 As you can see, Mendes hasn’t exactly been racking up wins against a high level of opponent and what’s even more interesting is that he’s looked very average against all of these guys. The truth is that Mendes has no striking, no knockout power, no wrestling and a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skillset that isn’t suited to MMA. I’m sure that Augusto Mendes is a great BJJ tournament competitor, but he doesn’t have the wrestling to take his opponents down or the urgency to catch them in submissions when a fight does hit the ground. After watching all of Mendes’ recent fights I can tell you that he is not a good fighter and now he’s making his UFC debut on just 5 days notice against a young, hungry, warrior like Cody Garbrandt, who has been training for the biggest fight of his life. I can’t see any way that Mendes wins this fight because he doesn’t have knockout power, he doesn’t have the wrestling to take Cody down and he doesn’t have the strength or technique to control Cody on the ground. This is a huge squash match and I expect Garbrandt to win with devastating violence. I’d truly be shocked if Mendes made it out of the 1st round without getting brutally knocked out. Mendes’ problem is that he has absolutely no striking, his technique is so bad that he looks like a total rookie. He also has a huge weakness in that he throws singular strikes and pauses for a second to reset after throwing something. This split second lapse in fluidity to his technique creates an opening for a skilled striker like Garbrandt to KO him dead. Mendes basically leaves an opening for a counter knockout strike everytime he throws a strike, which means he’s at constant risk of being knocked out by a fast, accurate striker like Cody Garbrandt. Mendes also looks physically weak and lacks the strength or technique to get fights to the ground. This is obviously a big problem when his biggest weapon is his Jiu Jitsu and it’s an even bigger problem when you’re fighting against a strong wrestler like Cody Garbrandt who trains with grappling monsters every day at Team Alpha Male. I really don’t give Mendes any chance of winning this fight. If it stays standing he’s going to get knocked out and if he tries to turn this into a grappling match he’ll probably get ragdolled. This is a very easy fight for Cody Garbrandt.
OUR BETTING TIP: 7.5 Units [7.5% of your bankroll] on Cody Garbrandt to win at odds of 1.30 | -333 | 33/100 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Prop Bets for UFC Fight Night 83

All of these Prop Bets were placed at Paddy Power. You can place most of these bets at 5 Dimes if you cannot open an account with Paddy Power. The odds on Prop Bets vary a lot between different betting websites, so the odds published below may be very different to what you will find on your own betting website of choice. [box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Donald Cerrone vs Alex Oliveira

Donald Cerrone to win in round 2 at odds of 6.50 | +550 Donald Cerrone to win in round 3 at odds of 8.50 | +750 Donald Cerrone to win by KO at odds of 3.10 | +210 Donald Cerrone to win by submission at odds of 2.87 | +187

Derek Brunson vs Roan Carneiro

Roan Carneiro to win by submission at odds of 10.00 | +900 Roan Carneiro to win by decision at odds of 9.50 | +850

Augusto Mendes vs Cody Garbrandt

Cody Garbrandt to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 4.00 | +300 Cody Garbrandt to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 6.50 | +550

Dennis Bermudez vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

Dennis Bermudez to win by decision at odds of 2.10 | +110 Dennis Bermudez to win by KO at odds of 4.00 | +300

Chris Camozzi vs Joe Riggs

Chris Camozzi wins by KO at odds of 4.00 | +300 Joe Riggs wins by decision at odds of 6.00 | +500

James Krause vs Shane Campbell

Shane Campbell wins by decision at odds of 5.00 | +400 James Krause wins by decision at odds of 3.60 | +260

Alex Garcia vs Sean Strickland

Sean Strickland to win in round 3 at odds of 13.00 | +1200

Anthony Smith vs Leonardo Guimaraes

Anthony Smith wins by KO at odds of 4.33 | +333 Leonardo Guimaraes wins by KO at odds of 4.50 | +350

Jonavin Webb vs Nate Coy

Jonavin Webb to win by KO at odds of 3.50 | +250

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Marion Reneau

Marion Reneau to win by decision at odds of 4.00 | +300 Ashlee Evans-Smith to win by decision at odds of 4.50 | +350 Marion Reneau to win in round 3 at odds of 12.00 | +1100

Kelly Faszholz vs Lauren Murphy

Kelly Faszholz to win by decision at odds of 5.50 | +450 Lauren Murphy to win by decision at odds of 1.80 | -180 Lauren Murphy to win in round 3 at odds of 15.00 | +1400

Anthony Hamilton vs Shamil Abdurakhimov

Shamil Abdurakhimov to win by decision at odds of 8.00 | +700 Shamil Abdurakhimov to win by KO at odds of 2.87 | +187 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

UFC Fight Night 83 Picks

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]

Alex Oliveira	vs	Donald Cerrone	Cerrone to win
Derek Brunson	vs	Roan Carneiro	Carneiro to win
Augusto Mendes	vs	Cody Garbrandt	Garbrandt to win
Dennis Bermudez	vs	Tatsuya Kawajiri	Bermudez to win
Chris Camozzi	vs	Joe Riggs	Riggs to win
James Krause	vs	Shane Campbell	Campbell to win
Alex Garcia	vs	Sean Strickland	Strickland to win
Daniel Sarafian	vs	Oluwale Bambose	Sarafian to win
Anthony Smith	vs	Leonardo Guimaraes	Guimaraes to win
Jonavin Webb	vs	Nathan Coy	Webb to win
Ashlee Evans-Smith	vs	Marion Reneau	Reneau to win
Kelly Faszholz	vs	Lauren Murphy	Faszholz to win
Anthony Hamilton	vs	Shamil Abdurakhimov	Abdurakhimov to win