UFC 194 is one of the biggest MMA events of all time and I’m looking forward to capping off an amazing year by banking another solid profit on this event. UFC 194 isn’t as good for betting as the TUF 22 Finale or UFC Fight Night 80, but I’ve still identified some great opportunities to make money that should help us take one step closer to hitting our target of 100 units of profit for the year.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs Yoel Romero Betting Tip Prediction
I personally feel like this fight will go to a decision, so I was shocked to see the betting line set at over 1.5 rounds instead of the usual 2.5 rounds.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Yoel Romero both have a habit of starting slow and they’re also both tentative standing up. On the ground Jacare is obviously very dangerous, but it’s going to be almost impossible to hold down an explosive, high level wrestler like Yoel Romero. Romero’s core is simply too strong and he’s too compact. His ability to scramble out of bad positions is world class and I don’t see anyone in the Middleweight division being able to hold him down.
Jacare and Romero both have good chins and they will both recognise that there is a lot at stake for this fight. I expect there to be a long feeling out process and I’d truly be shocked if this fight ended under 1.5 rounds.
It’s also worth noting that Yoel Romero’s last 5 fights have all gone into the 3rd round and his footwork and movement will make it difficult for Jacare to land anything significant on him. I believe the over 1.5 rounds is a great bet in this fight…
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.61 | -163 | 61/100
Jeremy Stephens vs Max Holloway Betting Tip Prediction
Jeremy Stephens has always struggled against technical strikers and now he’s facing probably the most technical striker he has ever fought in Max Holloway. Stephens is sold as a big power puncher, but he only has 6 wins by knockout in 20 fights in the UFC. Max Holloway has a good chin and great striking defence and I believe the chances of Stephens catching him with a knockout blow are very unlikely. Holloway is simply too fast and too technical to get caught by a slower, more basic striker like Jeremy Stephens.
Stephens and Holloway are both primarily strikers, which means that this fight will most likely be contested standing up. It’s possible that we may see Stephens shoot for some takedowns as Max starts to get the better of the striking exchanges, but it’s unlikely that Stephens will be able to get Holloway down because Max has developed some of the best takedown defence in the Featherweight division having defended 78% of all takedowns across 13 fights in the UFC. Max also does a great job of scrambling back to his feet when he does get taken down and I can’t see Jeremy Stephens being able to to maintain top position against him for too long.
I heavily favour Max Holloway in this fight because it should be stand up contest and Holloway lands almost double the amount of significant strikes per minute than Stephens does. Holloway also does a great job of keeping his opponent’s guessing by effortlessly switching between the Orthodox and Southpaw stance. This makes him very unpredictable and difficult to work out.
Jeremy Stephens is a very slow and basic fighter and I expect Max Holloway to easily win this fight by picking Stephens apart with his more technical striking.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Max Holloway to win at odds of 1.21 | -476 | 21/100
Kevin Lee vs Leonardo Santos Betting Tip Prediction
Kevin Lee is 13 years younger than Leonardo Santos and holds a significant advantage over Santos in every single aspect of MMA apart from pure Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I’m not too worried about Leonardo Santos’ high level BJJ playing a big factor in this fight because Kevin Lee is very physically strong with solid takedown defence and excellent wrestling. Lee should be able to get the better of any grappling exchanges and use his physicality to gain top position.
Kevin Lee has a big advantage when it comes to striking and I expect him to exercise this advantage by applying a lot of pressure to Santos and lighting him up with significant strikes. Lee is very fast and powerful and Santos doesn’t possess the power in his hands to back him up. I expect Lee to dominate the standup exchanges by walking Santos down and picking him apart.
Santos has been largely protected so far in his UFC career because this will be the first time that he has fought outside of Brazil since winning the Ultimate Fighter 2 years ago. This is significant because Santos doesn’t have that much experience travelling a long distance and competing in a different country. Kevin Lee lives and trains in Las Vegas, which means he will have home advantage on his side which gives him a significant edge over Santos in this fight.
Leonardo Santos has shown that he has really poor cardio and I don’t believe he will be able to keep up with a young, hungry bull like Kevin Lee. Lee is very physically strong and he fights at a fast pace and I don’t believe that Santos will be able to deal with Lee’s aggressive style of fighting.
I believe that Kevin Lee will be able to use his strong wrestling and physical advantages to keep this fight on his terms where he can either blast Santos in the standup exchanges or beat him up on the ground with his vicious ground and pound. It’s also worth noting that Kevin Lee is 13 years younger than the 35 year old Leonardo Santos and the younger fighter wins around 70% of the time when there is a 13 year age gap in a fight. Kevin Lee should win this fight easily.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Kevin Lee to win at odds of 1.21 | -476 | 21/100
UFC 194 Picks
|Conor McGregor||vs||Jose Aldo||McGregor to win|
|Chris Weidman||vs||Luke Rockhold||Rockhold to win|
|Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza||vs||Yoel Romero||Jacare to win|
|Demian Maia||vs||Gunnar Nelson||Maia to win|
|Jeremy Stephens||vs||Max Holloway||Holloway to win|
|Frankie Saenz||vs||Urijah Faber||Faber to win|
|Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger||vs||Tecia Torres||Jones-Lybarger to win|
|Colby Covington||vs||Warlley Alves||Covington to win|
|Kevin Lee||vs||Leonardo Santos||Lee to win|
|Joe Proctor||vs||Magomedov Mustafaev||Mustafaev to win|
|John Makdessi||vs||Yancy Medeiros||Medeiros to win|
|Court McGee||vs||Marcio Alexandre Jr||Alexandre Jr to win|