The UFC used to be marketed as the Super Bowl of Mixed Martial Arts. It was supposed to be a Premier League for the best fighters in the world. But as the sport has grown, a greater need to grow MMA in new countries has led to an influx of lesser skilled fighters who wouldn’t even make it into Bellator or the World Series of Fighting.
Guys like Yao Zhikui [2-3] and Ning Guangyou [5-2] now fill up the cards of the biggest MMA promotion in the world, whilst young, super talented beasts like Will Brooks and Justin Gaethje have to stick to competing in the minor leagues. UFC events have only started to fill up with low level fighters in the last couple of years, but it does mean that these regional events will become more and more difficult to bet on.
Our strategy for making money has always been the same. We aim to bet on fighters who hold significant advantages over their opponents, whilst at the same time have very few ways in which they could lose. This means that we consistently grind out wins and it’s also the reason why we have one of the highest win rates in the history of Sport Handicapping at 68%.
The problem with betting on events like UFC Fight Night 79, is that it consists of local talent and inexperienced fighters that have a lot of holes in their overall skillset. These holes can often be exploited by their opponents, but it’s difficult to bet on their opponent’s, because they also have holes in their game and they don’t always have the level of coaching or fight IQ required to capitalize on someone’s weaknesses.
Making money from betting on an event like this can often involve just as much luck as making money playing games like Roulette and Craps, because we really have no way of knowing how these fights are going to play out. It really depends on which fighter shows up with the best gameplan and no matter how well you know the sport, it’s impossible to predict which guys are going to show up the best prepared.
Out of the 11 fights at UFC Fight Night 79, there’s only one guy who I feel has significant advantages over his opponent… I only have one betting tip for this event, but it should easily win…
Alberto Mina vs Yoshihiro Akiyama Betting Tip Prediction
I have no idea why Alberto Mina is in the UFC. This guy is so bad that I doubt he’d even make it onto the Ultimate Fighter. He may be Brazilian and hold an impressive record of 11-0, but he lives in Hong Kong and these wins have come against a very poor standard of opponent. I am guessing that Mina left Brazil, because he’d get absolutely destroyed competing on the regional MMA circuit in Brazil.
The only reason why the UFC has guys like Alberto Mina on the roster, is so that they can throw them into squash matches against popular local fighters like Yoshihiro Akiyama. Mina is terrible in all aspects of MMA, but his 11-0 record goes some way towards hiding the massive skill gap that is present between him and Akiyama. Akiyama isn’t Korean, but he is a big celebrity in that part of Asia and he has starred in popular TV shows and Movies in Korea. He will be the biggest star competing at UFC Fight Night 79 and it’s no surprise that the UFC have matched him up against a very easy opponent that he should easily be able to beat.
Before I break down this fight, you should take some time to watch some footage of Mina’s last few fights. You can watch his most recent fight against Shinsho Anzai on UFC Fight Pass and trust me, it doesn’t get any better than what you’re about to see…
Yoshihiro Akiyama is now 40 years old, but that doesn’t concern me too much because it’s not like Mina is a young, hungry fighter who could beat him with pure athleticism. Mina is 33 years old, which means he doesn’t have that much of an advantage when it comes to being younger and healthier. It’s also worth noting that Mina has only competed twice in the last 4 years and this inactivity is bad for someone with only 11 Pro MMA fights at this stage in their career. Mina has not spent enough time in a competitive environment to become comfortable in the cage and this level of inactivity is often a sign of a lack of commitment.
When Akiyama fought Amir Sadollah just over a year ago he looked outstanding and I’m expecting a similar performance from him against Alberto Mina because he looked incredible at the weigh ins. Sadollah is a much better fighter than Alberto Mina and if Akiyama shows up and performs any where near that level he will win this fight easily.
Akiyama has always demonstrated an incredible chin and if this fight stays standing, he should be able to walk Mina down and use his powerful Boxing to land the more significant strikes. Mina’s striking technique is very poor. He wings punches and telegraphs everything that he does. There’s no way that Mina’s basic striking skillset will be able to cause Akiyama a problem.
Yoshihiro Akiyama is almost impossible to take down having defended 94% of all takedown attempts in the UFC. This guy has one of the strongest cores I have ever seen and his high level Judo base makes him an extremely difficult opponent for a guy like Alberto Mina who likes to pull guard and fight on the bottom. Mina has a solid ground game, but Akiyama is so explosive when it comes to takedowns and he’s so strong from top position. I see most of this fight playing out with Mina on the bottom, whilst Akiyama blasts him with his powerful ground and pound.
Alberto Mina looked terrible in his UFC debut against Shinsho Anzai and he’s now facing a huge step up in competition against Yoshihiro Akiyama. Mina started to gas out in the 1st round of his fight against Anzai and I’ve noticed that he does slow down a lot the longer a fight goes on. Akiyama looks to be in incredible shape for this fight and I don’t believe that Mina is anywhere near his level of athleticism.
Yoshihiro Akiyama will win this fight unless he has a serious injury, does something really stupid or decided not to train for this matchup. His advantages over Alberto Mina are so significant, that there’s no way that these two should be in the same Octagon together. In order for Mina to win this fight in Korea, he’s going to have to either beat Akiyama inside the distance or outwork him and win a decision beyond all reasonable doubt. It’s extremely unlikely that Mina will be able to finish Akiyama and even less likely that he’ll be able to win a decision against a popular Asian fighter in Korea.
This is clearly a squash match that the UFC have setup so that a 40 year old Akiyama can win a fight in front of his Korean fans. This is an easy fight for Akiyama. Mina doesn’t stand a chance…
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Yoshihiro Akiyama to win at odds of 1.68 | -148 | 17/25
UFC Fight Night 79 Picks
|Benson Henderson||vs||Jorge Masvidal||Henderson to win|
|Dominic Waters||vs||Dong Hyun Kim||Kim to win|
|Alberto Mina||vs||Yoshihiro Akiyama||Akiyama to win|
|Doo Ho Choi||vs||Sam Sicilia||Choi to win|
|Dongi Yang||vs||Jake Collier||Collier to win|
|Mike De La Torre||vs||Yui Chul Nam||Torre to win|
|Leo Kuntz||vs||Tae Hyun Bang||Kuntz to win|
|Cortney Casey-Sanchez||vs||Seo Hee Ham||Casey-Sanchez to win|
|Freddy Serrano||vs||Yao Zhikui||Serrano to win|
|Marco Beltran||vs||Ning Guangyou||Beltran to win|
|Dominique Steele||vs||Dong Hyun Kim||Steele to win|