UFC Fight Night 78 is one of the worst UFC events to bet on in a long time because the entire card is packed full of inconsistent fighters. I’ve spent a lot of time researching this event and there’s no one I’d feel comfortable betting on at their current odds. As a result, I only have two betting tips for this event, but it’s important to remember that we shouldn’t bet just for the sake of betting. The thing that separates a good bettor from a great bettor is knowing when to the pull the trigger and when to keep things tight and this is definitely one of those events where we need to keep things tight. Our primary goal is to make as much money as possible and I don’t want to risk losing some of our hard earned cash by betting on inconsistent fighters who cannot be trusted with our money.
One of the things that makes this event so difficult to bet on is the fact that you cannot accurately predict how TUF Latin American fighters will look when they fight on a live event. In the past we have frequently seen guys look completely different in live events to how they looked on the show and this makes betting on these kinds of fights extremely difficult.
It’s also worth noting that UFC Fight Night 78 is taking place at altitude, which means certain fighters may have prepared for this and have a distinct advantage over fighters who have not. It’s really difficult to fight at altitude and this card is packed full of inexperienced fighters on the low end of the pay scale who may not be able to afford to go to Monterray early to adjust to the different altitude levels. Mexican events are also governed by an athletic commission that are famous for making terrible judging decisions. These issues make this event extremely difficult to bet on and it would probably be easier to predict the outcome of a Roulette Wheel spin than to predict the outcome of most of these fights…
Kelvin Gastelum vs Neil Magny Betting Tip Prediction
I have no idea who is going to win this fight because Kelvin Gastelum is going to find it very difficult to cut to 170lbs and then rehydrate now that IVs are banned. If Gastelum could fight to his full potential for 25 minutes, I’d be all over him, but with his difficult weight cut and the fact that this fight takes place at altitude I have serious doubts as to whether he will be able to keep up with a cardio machine like Neil Magny for 5 rounds.
Whilst I may not feel confident betting on either guy to win this fight, I do feel confident that this fight will go to a decision, which makes a bet on the over 3.5 rounds at almost even money a good bet…
This will be the first time that Gastelum and Magny have ever competed in a 5 round fight and fighters often start a lot more tentatively and try to pace themselves in 5 round fights, which means that these matchups are a lot more likely to go the distance.
This fight is also taking place at altitude, which means Magny and Gastelum will be conscious of conserving their energy, just incase they have to fight for the full 25 minutes. This means that they will be less likely to over commit and fight aggressively because fighting in these ways requires a lot of energy.
Fighting at altitude also zaps the energy out of fighters quickly, which means it’s significantly less likely that they will be able to land a knockout blow, complete a takedown or lock in a submission the longer the fight goes on. It’s very unlikely that either of these guys will be able to hurt the other after the first couple of rounds because they’ll both be too tired to do any significant damage.
I also feel that both these guys lack the power to hurt each other standing up. Gastelum will probably take the centre of the Octagon and walk Magny down, whilst Magny stays on the outside and looks to control the distance with his jab. Magny doesn’t really have the power in his hands to hurt Gastelum and Magny stays too light on his feet, has too big of a reach and moves backwards too much to get hit with a powerful strike from Gastelum. It’s also worth noting that Gastelum doesn’t possess one punch knockout power and Magny’s excellent cardio means that he can recover very quickly if he gets rocked.
Both these guys have decent grappling, but their skills are far more geared towards defence and control than offensive grappling which could see either guy pickup a win via submission. Neither guy has particularly dangerous offensive Jiu Jitsu and I feel it’s extremely unlikely that this fight could end via submission.
I believe that this fight will go the distance because I believe that both these guys will try to pace themselves in a 5 round fight and I also believe that they lack the power and offensive skills to win this fight inside the distance.
MY BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 3.5 rounds at odds of 1.91 | -110 | 91/100
Diego Sanchez vs Ricardo Lamas Betting Tip Prediction
Diego Sanchez could easily be going into this fight on a 6 fight losing streak if it wasn’t for some very questionable judging decisions in his fights against Ross Pearson, Martin Kampmann and Takanori Gomi. The opening odds of 1.14 | -714 | 7/50 on Ricardo Lamas were a little too low for me to take a shot on him, but since the weigh ins the odds have improved to 1.21 | -476 | 21/100, so I now feel that he’s worth a bet because he holds significant advantages over Diego Sanchez in every single aspect of MMA. A bet on Lamas now gives us a 21% return on our money, which is a solid investment when you take into consideration how big the skill gap is between these two fighters.
Diego Sanchez was easily outstruck by Myles Jury and Ross Pearson in his last two fights and both those guys used a counter striking gameplan to pick Diego apart for 3 rounds. Ricardo Lamas has a counter striking base and he’s a better counter striker than Jury and Pearson, so he should have no problem dominating Diego in the striking exchanges. Sanchez has had some success in the past by applying a lot of pressure, but Lamas prefers to fight going backwards, which means Diego won’t be able to take Lamas out of his comfort zone by utilizing an aggressive gameplan.
If this fight stays standing, I expect Lamas to stay on the outside and pick Diego apart with his superior speed and technique. Lamas is several levels above Diego when it comes to striking and Diego lacks the knockout power to cause an upset with a lucky punch.
Lamas is also a strong wrestler with some of the best takedown defence in the Featherweight division. There’s no way that Diego will be able to take him down and keep him down. I think there’s a possibility that Lamas could employ a grind heavy gameplan and look to take Diego down and control him against the cage to secure a win. If Lamas chooses to grind on Diego, there’s nothing that Diego will be able to do to stop him.
Diego Sanchez is now 33 years old and the only guy left competing from the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. I’ve always been a big fan of Diego Sanchez, but the sport has evolved a lot since he first came into the UFC and I don’t believe that he has evolved with it. This is an easy fight for Ricardo Lamas and he should be able to dominate every single aspect of this matchup. Sanchez’s wreckless forward pressure won’t work against Lamas who has excellent counter striking and great defence.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Ricardo Lamas to win at odds of 1.21 | -476 | 21/100
UFC Fight Night 78 Picks
|Kelvin Gastelum||vs||Neil Magny||Gastelum to win|
|Diego Sanchez||vs||Ricardo Lamas||Lamas to win|
|Henry Cejudo||vs||Jussier Formiga||Cejudo to win|
|Enrique Marin||vs||Erick Montano||Marin to win|
|Enrique Barzola||vs||Horacio Gutierrez||Barzola to win|
|Efrain Escudero||vs||Leandro Silva||Escudero to win|
|Erik Perez||vs||Taylor Lapilus||Perez to win|
|Bartosz Fabinski||vs||Hector Urbina||Fabinski to win|
|Alejandro Perez||vs||Scott Jorgensen||Jorgensen to win|
|Andre Fili||vs||Gabriel Benitez||Fili to win|
|Alvaro Herrera||vs||Vernon Ramos||Ramos to win|
|Cesar Arzamendia||vs||Polo Reyes||Reyes to win|
|Michel Prazeres||vs||Valmir Lazaro||Lazaro to win|