It took me 4 days to research UFC Fight Night 61, but all that work ended up counting for nothing because hardly any of the fights played out like I thought they would. If you would have told me that our bets on Adriano Martins and Frank Mir would win, but we would still end up making a loss on this event, I would have told you that you were crazy!!! I guess that’s one of the reasons why we love MMA. Anything can happen!
Judging by the forum it seems like most of us made some good money on this event through live betting. I found that I was able to place decent sized bets on Frankie Saenz, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michael Johnson all at underdog odds, when it was clear that the fights were going in their favour. This isn’t new for live betting and I make good money on almost every event from betting on fighters at underdog odds when it’s clear that the fights are going their way. An example of this was Frankie Saenz. Early in his fight against Iuri Alcantara, he landed a powerful takedown and it was clear that Alcantara wasn’t going to be able to get back up easily. I looked at the live betting odds and you could still bet Frankie Saenz to win at +550 | 6.5 | 11/2. These kinds of odds were insane when you take into consideration the fact that Alcantara has poor takedown defence and Saenz is a strong wrestler. It’s no surprise that the online betting websites lost so much money when they were offering up odds like this. Here’s an article which talks more about Bovada losing around $1 million dollars on this event…
Online Betting Website Bovada losses close to $1 Million on UFC Fight Night 61
The thing is. This is nothing new. I’ve been making good money from betting live on the UFC for a long time and I’m really surprised that it’s taken this long for the online betting websites to have a big losing night. I’m just hoping that nothing changes and that they don’t tighten up too much. Unfortunately, I fear the live betting odds are going to be under much tighter controls in the future. I also urge you to sign up to our forum. We’ve established a great community that is dedicated towards helping each other make money betting on MMA. Together we can help each other maximise our profits and minimise our losses during events.
I’m really sorry for letting you down if you made a loss following my betting tips for this event. I’ve been betting on MMA for such a long time that I honestly do not feel the highs of the wins and the lows of the losses anymore. What I really enjoy is knowing that I helped you guys make extra money and I feel equally devastated if I let you guys down and cost you money. Knowing that I caused you to lose money seriously bothers me and it’s one of the reasons why I put so much time and effort into researching my tips. I set this website up because I love helping people and it gives me great pleasure knowing that I help people earn extra money. When I cause you to lose money, it kills me and that’s why I work hard to try and prevent that from happening.
Whenever I make a loss, I like to go back and look at my losing bets to see if there’s anything that I can learn from them, which will prevent me from making similar mistakes in the future. We didn’t make a big loss on this event, but I’m still hoping that there will still be some opportunities for improvement.
My plan to make a profit on this event was to win 3 out of my 4 bets on Cezar Ferreira, Cody Gibson, William Macario and Edson Barboza and then for either Frank Mir or Adriano Martins to win. This would’ve resulted in us making a good profit on this event.
I’ll start out by breaking down my biggest losing bet which was 5 units on William Macario to beat Matt Dwyer. Macario’s performance in this fight was very strange. In his fights against Bobby Voelker and more importantly Neil Magny, he showed excellent Boxing and an incredible ability to get in and out of his opponent’s range without taking damage. Unfortunately, he completely abandoned the skillful Boxing that he had displayed in his last 2 fights and looked flat footed and slow against Dwyer. I personally felt that William Macario would win this fight, even if he significantly underperformed, because Dwyer is just no where near UFC level. Brian Stann kept talking about Dwyer’s reach advantage throughout the broadcast, but if he would’ve done his research he would have seen that Dwyer didn’t have a reach advantage in this fight. I actually spoke about this in my original betting tip, so I have no idea why Macario struggled to get inside on Dwyer, when he was easily able to get in and out of Neil Magny’s range, who fights a lot longer than Dwyer and has an additional 6 inches of reach. This loss was very disappointing and with home advantage on his side, I felt like Macario was a very solid bet.
I also lost money on Cody Gibson to beat Douglas Silva. I watched Silva’s last 4 fights and he looked really slow and tentative in each of them. I felt like Cody would be able to use his wrestling to grind on Silva, which would cause Silva to gas out after the first round. Silva did gas, but not until the third round and this was probably a direct result of Gibson’s inability to take Silva down or work him against the cage. I got this fight completely wrong, but I have to say that Silva looked much better against Gibson than he ever has done before. Silva’s gas tank held up for the majority of the fight and he looked really good, which was extra impressive considering it was very hot and humid in the arena.
It was also brutal losing money on the Sam Alvey vs Cezar Ferreira fight. I guess I made the mistake of giving Ferreira too much credit for his fight IQ. All Ferreira had do to win, was take Alvey down and control him on the ground. This shouldn’t have been difficult because Alvey’s takedown defence is BAD and Ferreira has excellent takedowns. This would have been an easy path to victory for Ferreira. Instead, he came out throwing his spinning Capoeira shit and he ended up getting knocked out. I personally felt that a knockout in this fight was very unlikely, because they’re both Southpaws and both have relatively low level striking. When you get two Southpaw’s facing each other, you often see a tentative striking matchup, because they’re not used to fighting fellow Southpaws and it takes them longer to adjust. A knockout is also a lot less likely when Southpaws fight fellow Southpaws, because they’re naturally moving away from the power left hand of their opponent. Southpaw strikers like Sam Alvey and Johny Hendricks often appear to have a lot more power than they actually do, because they fight against Orthodox stanced fighters in the majority of their fights and Orthodox stanced fighters naturally move towards their power left hand. This power is largely negated when Southpaws fight Southpaws and that’s why I was very surprised that Sam Alvey managed to knock Ferreira out. Ferreira’s willingness to stand and strike with Alvey, showed us very bad fight IQ, because he had a clear advantage over Alvey when it came to grappling.
My final loss was on Edson Barboza to beat Michael Johnson and I don’t really know what to say about this fight. Johnson fought his ass off and looked incredible. He just didn’t give Barboza the space or time to get his kicks off and he took some vicious kicks to the body and still kept coming forward. This fight took place in a hot and humid arena and Johnson kept bringing it for 15 minutes. This was a seriously impressive performance and it looks like the year off gave Johnson the time to make massive improvements.
I’m also starting to feel like the crackdown on PED’s might be having a big impact on the performances of some fighters. How else could so many athletes turn up and under perform on the same night?
Last week, the UFC held a press conference where they revealed their plans to rid the sport of Performance Enhancing Drugs. Then, just 3 days later, 10 underdogs won out of 11 at UFC Fight Night 61. Surely this can’t be a coincidence? A lot of guys seriously underperformed at UFC Fight Night 61 and I wonder if this trend will continue, as the UFC aims to clamp down on the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs.
Here are my betting results for UFC Fight Night 61:
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