EVAN DUNHAM vs ROSS PEARSON BETTING TIP
Ross Pearson has evolved into a fast technical Boxer with knockout power under the guidance of Eric Del Fierro at Alliance MMA. The evolution of his skillset from a compact brawler to a technical knockout artist make Evan Dunham the perfect type opponent for him to showcase his new skills. Evan Dunham is wide open standing up. His striking defence is terrible and he is a knockout waiting to happen. His style is perfectly engineered to walk right into one of Pearson’s powerful right or left hook counter’s. Dunham maybe a Southpaw, but it’s not going to help him here… He just doesn’t have the technique to take advantage of all the things that make fighting out of the Southpaw stance dangerous. Dunham only has 2 elements to his game. He’s either bouncing around on the outside trying to think of his next move or he’s recklessly stepping into his opponent’s striking range in an effort to land a lazy hook or jab. If he tries to do this against Pearson, he’s going to get knocked out with one of Pearson’s brutal left or right hook counter’s. Anyone who has studied footage on Evan Dunham and Ross Pearson will tell you that Dunham is probably going to get countered and knocked out. I’m sure that Dunham and his coaches have studied footage of Pearson and they’re also aware of this, but I don’t know what adjustments they could make to stop it from happening. Dunham’s wrestling is so ineffective and his striking is so one dimensional, that I don’t give him much of a chance of winning this fight. Ross Pearson has been a little inconsistent throughout his career, but even in his worst performances he always shows up to fight and even his worst performance should be good enough to beat Dunham. He should be able to wait for Dunham to engage, before picking him apart with his more technical striking. Pearson has the skills to land BOMBS and the power to put Dunham away. This should be an easy fight for Pearson. [adrotate group=”111″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Ross Pearson to win at odds of 1.43 | -231 | 43/100
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JOE DUFFY vs IVAN JORGE BETTING TIP
When I first saw the odds for this fight I couldn’t believe that Joe Duffy was such a big favourite. Then I watched footage of both guys and immediately placed a big bet on Duffy. This is another fight in a long list of matchups throughout July which are total squash matches. There’s just no way that these two should be in the same Octagon together. Ivan Jorge has no striking, no cardio and no ability to take his opponent’s down. He’s also 34 years old and unlikely to have improved since his last fight. Joe Duffy should be able to blast Jorge with strikes and easily win this fight by knockout. Jorge can’t block punches and he can’t use footwork or head movement to make himself difficult to hit. Duffy has been gifted an easy win here. [adrotate group=”95″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Joe Duffy to win at odds of 1.11 | -900 | 11/100
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CORTNEY CASEY-SANCHEZ vs JOANNE CALDERWOOD BETTING TIP
Before you read this betting tip I want you to watch the following video… Joanne Calderwood had a lot of hype behind her when she first entered the Ultimate Fighter house, but I can’t help but feel that the hype might have been down to the fact that she was the first Scottish fighter to have a realistic chance of winning a title, as opposed to justified hype because of her talent. Calderwood has not lived up to her hype since she was signed by the UFC and there comes a point where we must accept that a fighter is not as good as we thought they were. If you look at her career timeline in the UFC, you’ll see that she has underperformed in every matchup. She first won a majority decision in a relatively close fight against Emily Kagan in a fight that she should have been able to win a lot easier. She then got destroyed by Rose Namajunas and put in a laboured performance against Seo Hee Ham. Most recently she was submitted in under 2 minutes by Maryna Moroz, who was making her UFC debut. The best fighters in the world will tell you that fighting is 50% physical and 50% mental and Jo Calderwood does not look like someone who who the mentality to compete at the highest level of this sport. In the video above she looks nervous, broken and lacking in confidence. She openly admits to having a bad camp and she says that she didn’t learn anything from her last performance. In that 5 minute video, Jo Calderwood gave me almost every single red flag that I need in order to bet against a fighter. The deck is stacked against Cortney Casey in this fight. She’s not supposed to win. She’s taking this fight on short notice, it’s her UFC debut and Calderwood also has home advantage on her side. The passionate Scottish fans are going to do their best to create an intimidating atmosphere and support Calderwood, but this could also put a lot of pressure on Calderwood and break her. I’ve watched a lot of footage on Cortney Casey this week and I can tell you that she’s tough, well rounded and very aggressive. From the very first second of the fight, she’s going to put it on Calderwood and look to turn this into a war. She doesn’t take a backward step and she’s also strong on the ground. Take a look at some of her recent fights… Calderwood has decent Muay Thai striking, but she’s very inexperienced on the ground. She just doesn’t have the skills to mix it up with a strong wrestler or submission grappler. If Casey can get this fight to the ground things are going to get very interesting. Casey’s “go to move” appears to be the armbar. She’s won several fights by armbar and she even caught Rachael Cummins in a flying armbar submission… Take a look… Casey’s ability to quickly lock in armbar submissions gives her a huge advantage in this fight because Calderwood seems to lack the ability to defend any type of arm lock submission. Calderwood openly admitted to not learning anything from her last fight, which suggests she hasn’t been working on her ground game or submission defence. This leads me to believe that Calderwood is still a sitting duck on the ground, which makes her very vulnerable against a dangerous submission artist like Cortney Casey. This is a tough fight for Casey, but given the circumstances I do believe she’s a good bet at underdog odds. I believe she can win this fight by keeping the stand up exchanges competitive and causing Calderwood all kinds of problems on the ground. This bet is by no means a lock, but if you’re looking for value, you won’t find much better value on this card than Cortney Casey. [adrotate group=”127″]MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on Cortney Casey-Sanchez to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1
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LEON EDWARDS vs PAWEL PAWLAK BETTING TIP
I’ve been following Leon Edwards his whole career and the guy is an absolute beast. At just 23 years old I feel he’s the UK’s best chance of having a UFC Champion one day. Edwards has elite striking, he’s very fast and he also possesses knockout power. It’s also nice to see a British fighter with such a strong ground game. Edwards is primarily a striker, but he has no problem mixing it up on the ground and he’s very strong from top position. Pawel Pawlak is primarily a striker but he’s nowhere near Leon’s level. This fight is a complete mismatch and Edwards should have no problem picking Pawlak apart. Leon Edwards fights out of the Southpaw stance and his striking is good enough to cause most UFC Welterweights a big problem. Pawlak never looks to take his opponent’s down, which means this fight will most likely be contested standing up. If the fight does go to the ground, I give Edwards a significant advantage, because he has decent wrestling and a good submission game. Leon Edwards should easily be able to win this fight by destroying Pawlak in the stand up exchanges. [adrotate group=”127″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Leon Edwards to win at odds of 1.29 | -345 | 29/100
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PADDY HOLOHAN vs VAUGHAN LEE BETTING TIP
I am a big fan of Vaughan Lee, but it’s tough to see a way in which he could win this fight. He’s just not active enough to outstrike Holohan or outwork Paddy on the ground. The UFC has moved on a lot since Lee first started fighting in the promotion back in 2011 and I don’t feel like he’s evolved enough to stay competitive with most of the guys currently competing at Flyweight. Paddy Holohan should be able to win this fight by being more aggressive in the stand up exchanges and on the ground. Paddy should be able to control the centre of the Octagon, pressure Lee and land the more significant strikes. Paddy should also be able to steal rounds from Lee with takedowns and cage control. Paddy has underperformed in his last couple of fights, but Vaughan Lee is a good matchup for him and I’m hoping he puts on an impressive performance. [adrotate group=”127″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Paddy Holohan to win at odds of 1.69 | -144 | 69/100
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