JAKE SHIELDS vs ROUSIMAR PALHARES BETTING TIP
Rousimar Palhares is known for being a leg lock specialist who has won 11 out of his 23 career fights by Kneebar or Heel Hook. I’m not trying to take anything away from Palhares, but leg locks are generally easy submissions to defend for fighters who have high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Jake Shields is a very skilled submission grappler and I don’t believe that Palhares will be able to catch him in a leg lock. If you go back and take a look at Rousimar Palhares’ MMA record you’ll notice that apart from catching a 37 year old Jon Fitch in a Kneebar, he’s never finished a high level grappler with a leg lock submission. All of Palhares’ submission wins have come against opponents with a very basic ground game. I don’t believe that this fight will stay standing for long because neither guy feels comfortable striking and they will both probably feel that they have the advantage on the ground. This should favour Shields because he has better cardio and stronger top control. In a 5 round fight I believe Shields will be able to secure the more dominant positions and grind out a win. I believe Jake Shields will win this fight because he has high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Rousimar Palhares is very easy to gameplan for. Shields will know that Palhares will be looking for leg lock submission opportunities, so he will be able to identify risks early on and scramble out of bad positions. Everytime Palhares goes for a leg lock, it will give Shields an opportunity to scramble into top position and score big points on the judges scorecards. Rousimar Palhares has poor cardio and Shields is a more well rounded fighter who has always demonstrated good fight IQ. I believe Jake Shields will win this fight by securing dominant positions and grinding out an ugly decision win or by catching Palhares in a submission late in the fight when Palhares starts to fade. [adrotate banner=”86″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Jake Shields to win at odds of 1.61 | -164 | 61/100
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MARLON MORAES vs SHEYMON MORAES BETTING TIP
The skillgap between Marlon Moraes and Sheymon Moraes is huge. Marlon is simply better than Sheymon in every single aspect of MMA. Sheymon has a legit punchers chance of winning this fight because he does possess knockout power but he’s slow for a Bantamweight and far too inactive. Sheymon is not the type of fighter who adjusts well to being pressured and Marlon is very aggressive and does a great job of holding the centre of the Octagon. If this fight stays standing I see Marlon leaving a lasting impression on the judges scorecards by taking the centre of the Octagon and fighting more aggressively. In terms of technical ability Marlon and Sheymon are not that far apart, but Sheymon is far too tentative to cause Marlon a problem. On the ground Marlon Moraes has a huge advantage and it’s clear that his training with Frankie Edgar is starting to pay off. Sheymon Moraes is very inexperienced on the ground and Marlon should be able to pickup a submission win or at the very least dominate Sheymon on the ground. This is a relatively easy fight for Marlon Moraes. He should beat Sheymon easily. [adrotate banner=”27″]MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Marlon Moraes to win at odds of 1.29 | -345 | 29/100
