Here are my Early Bird Betting Tips for UFC 191 – Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson. I will update this post with more betting tips as I finish researching each of the fights.
Please take some time to jump on the
forums and join in the discussion for this event.
EARLY BIRD BETTING TIPS FOR UFC 191
| Demetrious Johnson |
vs |
John Dodson |
No bet |
| Andrei Arlovski |
vs |
Frank Mir |
No bet |
| Anthony Johnson |
vs |
Jimi Manuwa |
5 Units on Anthony Johnson to win at odds of 1.21 | -476 |
| Corey Anderson |
vs |
Jan Blachowicz |
No bet |
| Alex Chambers |
vs |
Paige VanZant |
No bet |
| Paul Felder |
vs |
Ross Pearson |
5 Units on Paul Felder to win at odds of 1.30 | -331 |
| Francisco Rivera |
vs |
John Lineker |
No bet |
| Jessica Andrade |
vs |
Raquel Pennington |
No bet |
| Clay Collard |
vs |
Tiago Trator |
No bet |
| Joe Riggs |
vs |
Ron Stallings |
No bet |
| Joaquim Silva |
vs |
Nazareno Malegarie |
No bet |
Not looking like a good night for the Brits
I hate betting against British fighters and I’m a big fan of Pearson and Manuwa, but I feel like they are both being thrown to the Wolves here.
Felder and Johnson are really difficult opponents for their styles 🙁
What about Arlovski at -170? Or is heavyweight just too much of a gamble? I would think Arlovski is just clearly the better fighter at this point in their careers.
Hey man
I spent a lot of time researching Mir vs Arlovski, but in the end I don’t feel comfortable betting on either guy.
Arlovski and Mir are both 36 years old now and they’ve both taken a ton of damage throughout their careers. Arlovski has been knocked out 7 times in his career and Mir has also been knocked out a total of 7 times. It’s only going to take 1 clean strike to put either guy away and they’re both more than capable of landing that killer knockout blow.
Arlovski is far too willing to stand in the pocket and trade and whilst he has looked good recently, he’s still a 36 year old Heavyweight that’s suffered a ton of head trauma throughout his career.
It’s always risky betting on Heavyweight fights and Mir can fight comfortably out of the Southpaw stance which is also scary. I hate betting against heavy hitting Southpaws because you only have to drop your guard for a second and they can land a strike that you didn’t see coming from an angle you’re not used to defending. Mir has fought out of the Orthodox stance recently, but the option to switch to Southpaw is always there and I feel that gives him a big advantage.
I think Arlovski will win, but I don’t want to risk money on a fight that he could easily lose. By the same token, I see paths to victory for Mir, but I don’t feel there’s enough value in the odds for us to take a risk on him as a slight underdog. If he was closer to 3.50 | +250 I might take a shot on him but his current line of 2.50 | +150 doesn’t get me excited. I don’t think the payoff is high enough for the risk we’re undertaking.
How do you see the fight playing out mate?
Good analysis mate, after thinking about it more carefully I do agree that Arlovski’s chin is too big a question mark to just pick him up at this price.
On the other hand Mir is indeed too expensive atm. It seems best to just pass or maybe get a prop on this one not going the distance/someone getting a KO. Heavyweights… :negative:
Thanks a lot man…
I look at it like this…
There are only 2 UFC events in September and they’re both pretty crappy for betting. Any losing bet will put a significant dent in our profits for the month, because we won’t have many opportunities to make up for it with winning bets, since there are only 2 events.
I’m going to keep September very tight and not take any unessessary risks. I’m going to stick to betting on rock solid fighters to give us the best chance of earning a good profit for the month.
I hope this makes sense. :good:
at 1st i was all over AA as he seems like the obvious pick, but im gonna wait for the public to drive franks price up, il concede that allsops right in that this one is too risky for him to tip, it really could go either way, AA is quite fast for a big man, and we saw in the browne fight AA is hyper aggressive once things get going, franks left hand (if he can stay conscious long enough to land it) really might be the difference in those exchanges.
But if you were frank wouldnt you be thinking, lets get AA to comit to something, duck under his strike and put him on his back?
long story short , the closer to 3$ frank gets the more playable he becomes imo
allsop , i just hope your as keen on fransisco rivera as i am. im looking at hitting him for between 3-5 units, but as always i like to get other bettors perpsective before commiting
BOO i just saw your not betting rivera 😥
im keen for your thoughts on that one regardless
I really do like Francisco Rivera here mate, but I can’t bet on him for the same reason I can’t bet on Andrei Arlovski.
I do favour Rivera quite a bit, but just like Arlovski I can also see him losing. Imagine if I tipped Arlovski and Rivera to win and they both ended up losing? We dont want to risk that kind of hit to our bankroll after losing big in the last event. Right now I want to focus on getting back on track and putting some money in the bank. We need to make a profit in September so I’m going to keep things tight and only bet on guys who have a rock solid path to victory.
I think Rivera will win because Lineker is undersized for a Bantamweight at just 5 ft 3 which means Rivera should have a huge physical advantage over him.
Lineker’s striking is also very predictable and very bad. It’s looked impressive so far in the UFC, but that’s mainly because he’s been fighting guys who aren’t very good themselves and all of his past opponents have lacked the power to back him up. This means he’s been able to plod forward and throw bombs without having to worry about striking defence. His flat footed stance and the way he over commits to strikes will leave him wide open to getting KTFO’d.
Lineker’s striking is very poor because he loads up on all his strikes and telegraphs his power right hook with a left hook that measures distance. If you go watch any of his previous fights you’ll see him do this with almost every power strike he throws. A strong technical striker would wreck Lineker, but I’m not sure if Rivera is the guy to expose his weaknesses because Rivera has shown poor fight IQ throughout his career.
My problem with Rivera is that he gets sucked into brawls and this causes him to take unessessary risks and damage. His willingness to stand and bang has also exposed cardio issues and he slows down a lot in the second half of a fight.
I like Rivera quite a bit here but it’s still a risky bet at 2.00 | +100. With only 2 UFC events in September we don’t really have the room to take a gamble on him.
My 2 cents.
I’m pretty big on Arlovski here provided he comes looking the same as he did vs Travis Browne. I will look to hedge if he doesn’t. Arlovski hasn’t been KO’d in 11 fights including Anthony Johnson breaking his jaw. At the same time, I completely understand not tipping it, but the only path to victory I see for Mir is a finish in rd 1 outside of a very unlikely bananna peel slip later in the fight by Andre. He hasn’t stopped anyone outside of rd 1 since ’08. Furthermore, I think AA has made way more tangible improvements and has WON fights rather than facing a decrepite TRT-less Bigfoot and DUFFEE.
I actually see the odds as being closer due to Mir’s name value and the fact that people are fading Heavyweight Favorites at this point.
I’m leaning AA too. He looks quicker than Mir am I correct? My only concern is that chin.
I would go all in on Anthony Johnson but worried about the “gym incident” fallout being inside his head and distracting him on fight night. And Jimi Manuwa looks like a legitimate knockout artist.
AJ has a chin tho right?
I’m a big fan of Jimi Manuwa and when I first saw the match up I thought it was a pass because both guys have KO power.
As soon as I started watching footage of both guys I changed my mind and now I heavily favour Anthony Johnson. The guy is just a beast. He covers distance so fast for a big guy and he has such incredible power. He has the fastest hands in the division and this is a big step up for Manuwa after struggling against a journeyman like Blachowicz.
Anthony Johnson is a big problem for any fighter in the UFC who can’t take him down. I think Manuwa gets KO’d here.
cheers allsop! ill measure my expectations of rivera a bit.
are we putting the fade on ol man riggs here?
No bet on MM? That’s surprising.
I´m fading Riggs for a small bet now.