Early Bird Betting Tips for UFC 195 – Condit vs Lawler

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December 21, 2015

Here are my Early Bird Betting Tips for UFC 195 – Condit vs Lawler. The odds on almost all of our betting tip will decline significantly the closer we get to the time of the event, so please place your bets as soon as possible to maximise your profits. I will be updating this article with more tips as I research each of the fights. Please check this article regularly for updates. I will be writing my detailed breakdowns for each of these bets closer to the time of the event. [divider]

Early Bird Betting Tips for UFC 195 – Condit vs Lawler

Carlos Condit	vs	Robbie Lawler	2 Units on Carlos Condit to win at odds of 2.10 \| +110
Stipe Miocic	vs	Andrei Arlovski	5 Units on Stipe Miocic to win at odds of 1.45 \| -224 and 3 Units on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.69 \| -145
Alex Morono	vs	Kyle Noke	No bet
Albert Tumenov	vs	Lorenz Larkin	3.5 Units on Albert Tumenov to win at odds of 1.50 \| -200
Diego Brandao	vs	Brian Ortega	No bet
Michael McDonald	vs	Masanori Kanehara	No bet
Justine Kish	vs	Nina Ansaroff	2 Units on Nina Ansaroff to win at odds of 3.35 \| +235
Drew Dober	vs	Scott Holtzman	No bet
Abel Trujillo	vs	Tony Sims	No bet
Dustin Poirier	vs	Joe Duffy	2 Units on Dustin Poirier to win at odds of 3.00 \| +200
Joe Soto	vs	Michinori Tanaka	No bet
Edgar Garcia	vs	Sheldon Westcott	No bet

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21 Comments

Upwabo

December 21, 2015

I don’t agree with that Poirier vs Duffy pick. Joe Duffy beat Conor And Conor TKO ed Poirier in the first round.. I know there’s speculation that the weight cut was affecting Dustins performances, but Joe Duffy is a great MMA boxer and I believe will out strike Dustin.. But we will see soon!

Static

December 22, 2015

Although I agree that Duffy takes it, I don’t agree with your reasoning. Duffy beat Connor years ago via sub and mmath doesn’t mean much

Code_Zero

December 22, 2015

McGregor & Duffy were completely different fighters back then tho so that’s not really a fair example, I think either guy could win. If it was evens I’d pass but the line on Poirier is what makes him appealing imo

Puczi

December 22, 2015

MMA isnt math, and the fight youre talking about was in 2010. 5 years ago Rumble was a can, who lost to Josh Koscheck, Machida was undefeated and Lesnar was the king of the UFC.

Allsopp

December 22, 2015

It used to be very easy to rack up a lot of wins on the regional MMA circuit in Europe if you had a dangerous ground game, because most fighters in Europe at the time had a striking base, with hardly any ground game at all.

Joe Duffy came into MMA with very good Jiu Jitsu, when no one else was really that skilled on the ground. His ground game was very far ahead of everybody else on the European circuit and that’s why he won so many fights by submission early on in his career.

His fight against Conor McGregor is completely irrelevant now because it was so long ago. Both fighters have evolved a lot since then.

I’ve been watching Joe Duffy for many years and he tends to break and fade when the going gets tough. Dustin Poirier is several levels above anyone that he has ever faced before. It’s easy to look good against guys like Jake Lindsay and Ivan Jorge, but this is a massive step up for Duffy and he has no real life experience competiting against a high level, well rounded guy like Poirier, who will fight out of the Southpaw stance and get in his face from the very 1st second of the fight.

Poirier would have looked equally impressive against the guys that Duffy has beaten up until this point in his career. I don’t see Duffy as having any clear advantages over Poirier, his record is one of the most padded MMA records I have ever seen.

People criminally underate Poirier because of his poor performance against Conor McGregor… But there’s a lot more to him than that. He’s an excellent fighter and he’s a really tough match up for Duffy. I think Poirier is a great bet at the current odds.

avalente99

December 25, 2015

Hi Upwabo and everybody,

I see your point. You are thinking form a perspective of predicting a winner, or something similar. And form that start, your thinking seems quite logical.

Looking from the perspective of odds – value – and chances, i think that the picture changes a little. The odds says that Poirier has around 35% of winning this fight. As Allsopp i do not see this number being right. To me it is a closer fight than that. So, i see some value on Poirier. And this time the fight takes place in Vegas.

And i see no value o Duff at all, paying just 1.45.

The odds are in european format.

Lets see what happens….

B-)

s0ppie

December 22, 2015

@Puczi dropping knowledge also…. please don’t reveal the tips in the comments section.

Puczi

December 22, 2015

I thought comments are hidden for logouts 🙁
Btw I haven’t refreshed the page before posting, and didn’t see Static already answered.

Quapsy

December 22, 2015

Comments are definitely available to those who are signed up to the site but don’t pay for VIP.

Puczi

December 23, 2015

About 3 units bet – betsafe offers 1.80, if anyone can bet there :good:

Nordicflight

December 23, 2015

Thanks Puczi, I appreciate that you tell us when BetSafe have the best odds. I am not good at checking with them, but I will bet there on this one for sure.

nVme

December 26, 2015

hopped on this train for this year as you appear to do a lot of researxh and provide insight which i do not have time for due to work, looking forward to a good year !

Nordicflight

December 27, 2015

Congratulations nVme, on a great decicion. Let´s go 2016!!!

nVme

December 27, 2015

only issue so far that i see is, a lot of juice is being laid down on these fights, has the op not considered parlays onstead of straight betting with heavy juice?

Allsopp

December 27, 2015

Thanks a lot for signing up mate, I really appreciate it. If you stick to the unit sizes and follow every bet, you will consistently make money.

Don’t worry about laying juice on some fighters because unconventional ways of doing things are often the most successful and my strategy is very unconventional…

A common misconception amongst people who bet on sports is that laying heavy juice on big favourites is a bad idea and you’re better off parlaying them together. Problem is… 95% of people who bet on Sports never make money because their theories on Sports betting are not effective.

Parlays are the biggest earner for the Bookies. This is where they make most of their money. When you add another leg to a parlay, you introduce a massive amount of risk to that bet for hardly any additional gain. There are no benefits to placing a parlay over individual straight bets, except for the fact that there isn’t as much of your bankroll at risk when you place a parlay. [but if you’re confident you’re going to profit from your straight bets, why should this be a problem?]

If ever I recommend betting on a fighter at odds worse than 1.40 | -250… It means that I have identified in my research that they have almost no way of losing. Of course anything can happen in MMA and we will always lose some bets, but we have one of the highest win rates in the history of Sports Betting, because we don’t ever gamble or try and take unessessary risks. We fire big and aggressively on fighters who hold significant advantages over their opponent’s and we try to put our money in the least amount of risk possible.

If we recommend a bet on a particular fighter, you can be sure that at least 2-3 hours of research has gone into that particular bet.

:good:

nVme

January 2, 2016

ye makes sense thats what i thought haha as long as we don’t have to lay juice on 1.1 odds (rousey vs holms), 1.4-1.5 are doable if the bet is super strong, heavy weight fights are the main fights where i’d be scared of laying heavy juice, literally anything can happen with the big boys
thanks for the reply allsopp

DivMuzza

December 27, 2015

Parlays are too risky mate. You can still place them just go alot smaller on them. Feel free to post them in Parlay lovers thread too. But why risk adding all them together in the one bet then one looses you lose everything. This way if one or 2 loose you can still profit.

Nordicflight

December 27, 2015

Parlays don´t change anything at all in regards to the value of a certain pick. It changes strategy, staking and variance, but you don´t create any extra value by parlaying.

I personally play a lot of parlays when the odds are low, but I still feel there is value. But if you pick bet´s that are +ev, you are a long term winner and if you don´t, well then you are not.

I am amazed over the many faulty ideas about parlays (not saying you see them wrong, just in general). I think it comes down to personal preference and betting style.

nVme

January 2, 2016

main reason for a parlay would be if the matches occur at the same time, not relevant for fighting i guess though