Johny Hendricks vs Stephen Thompson Betting Tip Prediction for UFC Fight Night 82
Johny Hendricks and Stephen Thompson were originally scheduled to fight for 3 rounds in the co-main event of UFC 196. Then, on less than two weeks notice, their fight was changed to a 5 round main event after the original main event between Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum was cancelled. This means that Johny Hendricks and Stephen Thompson may have to fight for 25 minutes, when they have only trained to fight for 15 minutes. This sudden change will have a big impact on the fighter’s performances, because both guys will now be looking to conserve energy, just in case they have to fight for 10 minutes longer than they had originally planned. As a result, I expect both fighters to start slower, fight more tentatively and take a lot less risks than they normally would in the early stages of a fight. This change really does make it a lot more likely that this match up will go over 2.5 rounds… I also like this bet because the over / under betting line on this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, when I believe it should be set at 4.5 rounds. I believe that the bookies set the over on this fight when it was scheduled for 3 rounds and they haven’t bothered to adjust the line to 4.5 rounds, now that this has been changed to a 5 round fight. This gives us a great opportunity to capitalize on their mistake, because I believe that there’s a very good chance that this fight will go the distance, or at the very least cruise past the 2.5 rounds mark. When I bet on a fight to go over or under a certain number of rounds, I like to work through a checklist of the potential ways a fight could end inside the distance. I then like to consider the probability of each outcome and then determine if the payoff from the bet will be worth the risk of a fight finishing over or under the specified number of rounds. When deciding on whether an over or under bet is a good play, it’s important to consider how likely it is that either fighter will be able to win by knockout or submission… After researching the fighting styles of both Hendricks and Thompson, I believe that the chances of this fight ending by submission are extremely small. This opinion is largely based on the fact that Hendricks and Thompson only have 2 submission wins between them in a combined total of 32 pro MMA fights. It’s possible that a large portion of this fight could take place on the ground if Hendricks manages to secure his takedowns. Despite this, I don’t believe that he will be able to finish Thompson on the ground because he never goes for submissions and he’s not very aggressive with ground and pound either. I feel it’s unlikely that Hendricks will be able to finish this fight with strikes from ground and pound, because Hendricks favours a smothering, controlling style of wrestling as opposed to a style that looks to inflict damage from top position. [box type=”info” align=”aligncenter” class=”” width=””] We’ve already made 175.24 units of profit since we setup this website back in 2014. This means that betting just $10 a unit on each of our betting tips would have resulted in a profit of $1752. Betting $100 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $17,524 and betting $1000 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $175,240. Click here to see a more detailed breakdown of our Results…[/box] Hendricks and Thompson both have knockout power, but their fighting styles and the way they match up make it unlikely that we’ll see a knockout in this fight. Many people believe that Thompson stands a good chance of winning this fight by knockout, but Hendricks has never been knocked out in 20 Pro MMA fights. This is an impressive achievement when you take into consideration the fact that Hendricks has gone the distance with heavy hitters such as Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler. Stephen Thompson’s striking defence and durability is even more impressive, because he has never been knocked out in over 120 Kickboxing and MMA fights. Hendricks is known for his knockout power, but 6 out of his last 7 fights have gone the distance. Over the last few years we have seen that Johny’s power has been a lot less effective against higher level strikers and Thompson is undoubtedly the most elusive and technically skilled striker that Hendricks has ever fought. I’m not saying that Hendricks can’t knock Thompson out, but I’d be surprised if he did because he hasn’t won a fight by knockout since he KO’d Martin Kampmann back in 2012. Thompson will also have a 7 inch reach advantage over Hendricks, which will make it a lot easier for a highly skilled technical striker like Thompson to stay out of Johny’s range and avoid his power strikes. When you consider how these guys match up from a striking perspective, you start to see that a finish due to strikes becomes more and more unlikely for both guys. This is largely down to the fact that Hendricks will not be able to fight on the outside with Thompson, because the reach disadvantage will make it difficult for him to land on Thompson without Thompson using footwork to circle out of danger or use head movement to evade Johny’s strikes. In order for Johny to land on Thompson, he’s going to have to work his way inside and fight in a phone booth. Thompson is lethal in this range and Hendricks will know this, so when he does enter Thompson’s range he will be looking to tie Thompson up. Strikes from the clinch and close range don’t pose that much threat of a knock out, which makes the chances of Hendricks winning this fight by knockout extremely slim. What I’m trying to say is… Johny’s reach disadvantage is too substantial for him to land a knockout strike from the outside and he won’t want to strike in close range with Thompson because Thompson has very dangerous counters from close distance. This means that Johny will need to tie Thompson up and grind on him to avoid being knocked out. When these two guys are in a clinch position, there is very little chance that either of them will be able to inflict that much damage with strikes. With all the information that we have available, I believe that the over 2.5 rounds on this fight is a great bet. I believe the majority of this fight will take place in the clinch, where neither guy is at risk of being knocked out. Both Hendricks and Thompson are very good defensively and I’d be really surprised if this fight ended under 2.5 rounds. Don’t forget to stop by our MMA Betting Forum and join in the discussion on UFC Fight Night 82. I will also be in the Chat Room during the event to talk about the fights live. I look forward to seeing you there!Click here to read my VIP betting tips for UFC Fight Night 82 – Hendricks vs Thompson.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
So when do you post your picks for the entire card?
Hi man,
Hope you’re having a good day.
I am writing up all the breakdowns now. I will be posting them very soon. 🙂
Cool, thanks for the update :good: