UFC 198 is a very difficult event to bet on because there are several factors at play which increase the chances of fighters underperforming or fighting in a way that is not consistent with their past performances. These extra risk factors make it almost impossible to predict how the majority of fights at UFC 198 will play out.
Here are the main reasons why UFC 198 is such a difficult event to bet on…
1. USADA
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]In my opinion, the introduction of robust drug testing under USADA is the biggest change to the UFC since fighters were forced to start wearing gloves.
On the surface it may appear like everything is the same, but we’ve never seen so many fighters get injured, so many fighters perform inconsistently and so many fighters gas out after just 1 or 2 rounds. It’s almost mandatory now that 3 or 4 fights get cancelled in the 2 weeks leading up to an event and it seems like too much of a coincidence that this has started to happen at the same time that USADA have ramped up their drug testing programme.
USADA testing is causing more fighters to get injured because they can’t use performance enhancing drugs or banned supplements to help their bodies recover during training. This leads to more fights being cancelled and more fighters fighting injured. When fighters fight injured, they naturally underperform, which means extra caution must be taken when betting on fighters who appear to be at extra risk of being effected by the new USADA drug testing programme.
USADA drug testing makes it very difficult to feel confident in many of the fighters competing at UFC 198 because the event is packed full of Brazilian fighters and Brazilians have a long history of using performance enhancing drugs.
It’s also worth noting that the new USADA regulations prevent fighters from using an IV to rehydrate after cutting weight. This is a big problem on events like UFC 198 because UFC 198 is taking place in Curitiba and Curitiba is a 12 hour flight from most parts of the United States. Travelling a long distance, staying in a strange country, fighting in a different timezone and having to eat different foods will all effect a fighter’s weight cut. A bad weight cut can lead to a fighter being dehydrated when they fight which ultimately has an adverse effect on their cardio, strength and power which causes them to underperform.
USADA have had a big impact on the performances of many fighters in 2016 and I expect it to once against wreak havoc at UFC 198…
2. Home Advantage
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]It’s never easy fighting a Brazilian in Brazil, but to make matters worse, UFC 198 is taking place in a sold out football stadium where at least 45,000 Brazilian fans will be turning up to show their support for the Brazilian fighters. This is a massive factor to take into consideration because most UFC events in Brazil take place in arenas that only hold between 5000 – 10,000 people. If home advantage is a big deal in front of 5000 Brazilians, imagine how much of a big deal it will be in front of 45,000!!!
You also have to take into consideration the fact that the fights at UFC 198 will have Brazilian judges and Brazilian judges are historically biased towards Brazilian fighters. Non Brazilian fighters are going to have to either win inside the distance or completely dominate in order to win a decision in Brazil.
Brazilian referees also add to the benefits of home advantage because we’ve seen over the years that they are very quick to stand fights up when Brazilian fighters get taken down. They also separate fighters quickly when Brazilians are being controlled against the cage and they are more likely to deduct points from Non Brazilian fighters.
All these factors point towards this being a very tough night for any non Brazilian fighters competing at UFC 198…
Here are some examples of how home advantage in Brazil can effect the outcome of some of the matchups taking place at UFC 198…
Do you think that Patrick Cummins has a good chance of beating Little Nog? Well imagine how he’s going to feel everytime one of his takedown attempts gets stuffed and 45,000 Brazilians roar in celebration. Imagine how he’s going to feel when Little Nog plods forward pumping his jab in his face and the crowd go wild with every strike. Imagine how he’s going to feel everytime he lands a takedown and 45,000 Brazilians start booing him in an effort to pressurize the referee into standing them up. Imagine how he’s going to feel after working hard to complete a takedown and then the referee stands them back up in less than a minute because he feels pressured by the boos of the crowd. On the surface, this should be an easy fight for Patrick Cummins, but there are several external factors at play which actually make this a very tough fight for him…
Now take Corey Anderson vs Shogun Rua as another example. On the surface it might appear like this is a relatively easy fight for Anderson, but Shogun is a legend in Brazil and he has an unnatural ability to drag people into crazy wars. Corey Anderson is still young and inexperienced at only 26 years old. Do you really think he’s ready to be dragged through hell by Shogun? This fight is on the main card of UFC 198 and the sound in the arena will be deafening when they fight. Shogun is a former Pride Grand Prix Champion and this is not his first high stakes rodeo in a jam packed arena. He’s been here before, he’s got the T-Shirt and he’s also got a couple of belts and trophies which prove that he can perform under these extreme conditions. Can the same be said about Corey Anderson? Can we trust him to perform to his full potential under these extreme circumstances? I doubt it…
I could go on all day about how home advantage could influence the outcome of each of the fights taking place at UFC 198, but I’ll end on the fight between Fabricio Werdum and Stipe Miocic.
On the surface, it appears like Stipe Miocic could be a good bet, but how do we know he’s going to be able to perform to his full potential in an arena full of Brazilians, who will all be wearing Fabricio Werdum masks whilst chanting “You are going to die” in Portuguese.
Another big factor to consider is the old combat sports adage that you need to dominantly beat a Champion in order to take his belt. If rounds are even remotely close in this fight, the Brazilian judges will score the round for Werdum. If Miocic only just edges a round, the Brazilian judges will score the round for Werdum. If Miocic clearly wins a round but Werdum ends the round with a late flurry, the Brazilian judges will score the round for Werdum. In order to win this fight, Miocic will have to finish Werdum inside the distance or win every round beyond all reasonable doubt. Be very careful if you’re thinking about betting on Stipe Miocic, because even if he does win this fight, it still might not be enough to win this fight…
3. Fighting in a large stadium
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]UFC 198 is taking place in a large arena and events in large arenas typically cause fighters to gas out a lot faster than they normally would. It doesn’t effect everyone, but I’m guessing it’s down to fighters adrenaline dumping because they’re not used to fighting in front of so many people.
We also see fighters look a lot more stiff and tentative than usual. I’m guessing this is down to the fact that fighters feel additional “Octagon Jitters” and “Stage Fright” when they’re fighting in a massive arena in front of a much greater number of people.
There are several fighters competing at UFC 198 who have experience of competing in large stadium events in PRIDE. I believe that these fighter’s have a significant advantage over their opponent’s heading into this event.
Live Betting Tips Forecast
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]UFC 198 should be an excellent event for live betting because the bookies always tend to struggle with events like this where there are several external factors at play. They really struggle to gauge how fights are going to play out when there is an increased chance of bad judging or a fighter gassing out.
I have conducted several days worth of research on all of the fights taking place at UFC 198 and I can use this knowledge to help us make big money in live betting. I will be posting my live betting tips in our live betting tips chatroom during each of the fights at UFC 198.
We’ve made a lot of money in live betting over the last few months and I’m predicting another big win on Saturday night…
Here are my betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC 198…
Betting Tip 1: Thiago Santos to beat Nate Marquardt
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Thiago Santos takes on Nate Marquardt at UFC 198 and we believe that Santos is a great bet…
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos has home advantage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos has legit KO power in every strike.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos is 5 years younger than Nate Marquardt.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos is a significantly better striker than Nate Marquardt. He throws a much wider range of strikes and lands with a much higher volume.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos does a great job of controlling the distance and using footwork to evade his opponent’s attacks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos is absolutely nasty in the clinch position. He does a great job of inflicting big damage with knees and elbows.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos has good takedown defence and he’s very good at scrambling back to his feet when he does get taken down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Thiago Santos has an excellent chin. He took some big shots against Uriah Hall and still managed to go the distance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt is on a very steep decline at 37 years old and has been proven to use Performance Enhancing Drugs. The new USADA regulations in the UFC will hit him hard.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt has suffered several knockout losses in recent years and Thiago Santos hits very hard.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt’s fighting style has become nervous, tentative and slow.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt doesn’t fight with a grinding style anymore.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Nate Marquardt has knockout power in his hands.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our betting tip and prediction...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Thiago Santos is one of those fighters that has only started to reach his full potential now that he is in his 30’s. For most of his career he was a one dimensional Kick Boxer, but he has rapidly improved in all areas of MMA since he started training at American Top Team. His late development as a fighter is probably down to the fact that he spent 7 years in the Brazilian Army and only started training in MMA 6 years ago. He also came from a poor area of Brazil where it was difficult for him to train properly and eat good food. All these factors mean that Thiago Santos is a talented young fighter in an older, wiser body. He essentially has the best of both worlds so it’s no wonder that he is improving at such a fast rate…
Nate Marquardt has had a long and successful career in MMA, but he’s now 37 years old and a proven user of Performance Enhancing Drugs. The new era of the UFC under USADA regulation is an unforgiving place for fighters like Nate, who can no longer use PEDs to boost their training and aid their recovery. USADA also makes it difficult for them because they can no longer use an IV to rehydrate after cutting weight.
Marquardt has been on a steady decline in recent years with only 2 wins in his last 7 fights. His slump in form is predominantly down to the fact that he appears to have lost his speed, aggression and explosiveness. He now fights with a nervous and tentative style that is very different to the style that brought him so much success.
Thiago Santos is 5 years younger than Nate Marquardt, which gives him a significant advantage when it comes to speed and athleticism. 32 is still relatively old for an MMA fighter, but it’s worth noting that Santos is a very young 32 year old because he only started training in MMA 6 years ago. Before that he was in the Brazilian army for 7 years and wasn’t able to focus on MMA full time. This means that Thiago’s “age advantage” is amplified by the fact that he hasn’t suffered anywhere near as much damage as the average 32 year old fighter in the UFC.
In the past I would have been worried about the possibility of Marquardt grinding on Santos for 3 rounds, but Marquardt has lost his grind in recent years and Santos showed in his last fight against Elias Theodorou that he has excellent takedown defence and he’s very dangerous in the clinch. Santos also does a really good job of scrambling back to his feet if he does get taken down.
If this fight stays standing I expect Marquardt to get dominated because he doesn’t have the speed, striking defence or chin to survive against someone like Thiago Santos anymore. Santos is simply too fast and too powerful. Santos also throws a much wider range of strikes and lands around 30% more strikes per minute.
This is a really difficult fight for Nate Marquardt because he’s at constant risk of being knocked out if the fight stays standing and he’s going to take significant damage if he tries to fight Santos in the clinch. This means he’s going to have to try and get this fight to the ground, but that won’t be easy because Santos is a big, strong guy with excellent takedown defence and good scrambles. If someone like Elias Theodorou couldn’t take Santos down and hold him down, the chances of a 37 year old Nate Marquardt being able to take Santos down are extremely slim.
Nate Marquardt hasn’t looked good in a long time and now he’s fighting a strong, well rounded Brazilian fighter in a Soccer stadium full of 50,000 Brazilian fans who will all be doing their best to spur Santos on to victory. This is a really tough night at the office for Marquardt and I don’t expect it to end well…
The odds aren’t great on Thiago Santos to win, but Marquardt has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight and that’s about it. I expect Thiago Santos to win this fight easily…
Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Thiago Santos to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]5 Units
[5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.29 Moneyline = -345 Fractional = 29/100
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Thiago Santos has a 78% chance of winning this fight based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Thiago Santos has a 90% chance of winning this fight based on our extensive research and analysis.
Prop Bets for UFC 198 - Miocic vs Werdum
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]All of these Prop Bets were placed at either Paddy Power, Unibet or 5 Dimes.
[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]
Fabricio Werdum vs Stipe Miocic
Fabricio Werdum to win by decision at odds of 6.50 | +550
Fabricio Werdum to win submission at odds of 3.30 | +230
Stipe Miocic to win by KO at odds of 4.50 | +350
Ronaldo Souza vs Vitor Belfort
Vitor Belfort to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 6.00 | +500
Ronaldo Souza to win inside the distance at odds of 1.50 | -200
Fight ends in round 1 at odds of 2.00 | +100
Christiane “Cyborg” Santos vs Leslie Smith
Cyborg to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 6.50 | +550
Corey Anderson vs Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
Shogun to win by KO at odds of 7.00 | +600
Shogun to win by decision at odds of 6.00 | +500
Bryan Barberena vs Warlley Alves
Bryan Barberena to win in round 3 at odds of 26.00 | +2500
Warlley Alves to win by decision at odds of 3.60 | +260
Demian Maia vs Matt Brown
Matt Brown to win in round 3 by KO at odds of 26.00 | +2500
Matt Brown to win in round 2 by KO at odds of 18.00 | +1700
Matt Brown to win in round 1 by KO at odds of 15.00 | +1400
Demian Maia to win by decision at odds of 3.10 | +210
Nate Marquardt vs Thiago Santos
Thiago Santos to win in round 1 by KO at odds of 2.29 | +129
Thiago Santos to win in round 2 by KO at odds of 7.00 | +600
Francisco Trinaldo vs Yancy Medeiros
Francisco Trinaldo to win by decision at odds of 2.70 | +170
Yancy Medeiros to win in round 3 at odds of 17.00 | +1600
John Lineker vs Rob Font
John Lineker to win by decision at odds of 4.50 | +350
Rob Font to win by KO at odds of 5.50 | +450
Rob Font to win in round 3 at odds of 18.00 | +1700
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Patrick Cummins
Patrick Cummins to win by decision at odds of 2.00 | +100
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to win by KO at odds of 6.50 | +550
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to win by decision at odds of 9.50 | +850
Renato Moicano vs Zubaira Tukhugov
Renato Moicano to win by decision at odds of 4.50 | +350
UFC 198 Picks
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]
| Fabricio Werdum | vs | Stipe Miocic | Werdum to win |
| Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza | vs | Vitor Belfort | Jacare to win |
| Christiane “Cyborg” Santos | vs | Leslie Smith | Cyborg to win |
| Corey Anderson | vs | Mauricio “Shogun” Rua | Shogun to win |
| Demian Maia | vs | Matt Brown | Maia to win |
| Bryan Barberena | vs | Warlley Alves | Alves to win |
| Nate Marquardt | vs | Thiago Santos | Santos to win |
| John Lineker | vs | Rob Font | Font to win |
| Antonio Rogerio Nogueira | vs | Patrick Cummins | Nogueira to win |
| Francisco Trinaldo | vs | Yancy Medeiros | Trinaldo to win |
| Luan Chagas | vs | Sergio Moraes | Moraes to win |
| Renato Moicano | vs | Zubaira Tukhugov | Moicano to win |
Great new layout Allsopp
It looks clean, professional and most importantly, it is very easy to follow.