UFC Fight Night 91 Betting Tips & Picks – Lineker vs McDonald

UFC Fight Night 91 gives us an opportunity to get back on the horse just days after going through our biggest losing week of all time. The bad news is that this event doesn’t give us an opportunity to put a significant dent in our losses because it is a very bad event for betting. In fact, it might actually be the worst UFC event on paper that I have ever seen.

After suffering a big loss it’s important to re evaluate our strategy and not be tempted into chasing our losses and placing bets which aren’t rock solid. Our mantra of only betting on fighters who hold significant advantages over their opponent’s was relaxed on UFC 200 and we paid the price by betting on fighters who only held marginal advantages. Even though we had our money in some strong positions, we got punished for not staying true to the strategy that has got us this far. As a result, I’m going back to basics on UFC Fight Night 91 and from now on I will only be betting on guys who hold significant advantages over their opponents. I don’t care how much “value” there may appear to be in the odds, we need to go back to betting on solid guys, who have a multitude of advantages over their opponents.

This week I’ve gone back over our performance this year and I’ve made several adjustments to my strategy which I feel confident will dig us out of this horrendous hole. Losing is unfortunately a part of any kind of gambling and not much has gone our way this year. The good news is that I’ve been doing this a long time and I’ve dug my way out of much worse situations than this. I believe I’ve identified a few ways that we can dramatically improve our profitability and get our year back on track. This all starts with our betting tip for UFC Fight Night 91.

I will also be offering Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC Fight Night 91, for anyone that is interested.

Kyle Noke takes on Keita Nakamura at UFC Fight Night 91 and we believe that Kyle Noke is a very solid bet.

I’ve been waiting to bet on Kyle Noke all week and our patience has finally paid off as his odds have improved from 1.39 | -256 right up to 1.65 | -154 at the time of writing this breakdown.

Japanese fighters have a long history of underperforming when they compete outside of Japan and this held true when Nakamura last fought back in February against Tom Breese in London. Nakamura did not look good at all in that fight. He looked nervous and tentative, physically weak and a more aggressive fighter would have destroyed him. Kyle Noke is a well rounded veteran with good cardio and a lot of heart. He also has several advantages which I believe will serve him well in this fight. I also think Noke is a good bet because he fought under the new USADA drug testing programme back in January and went 3 hard rounds without gassing out or looking weak.

Keita Nakamura is primarily a grappler, but he struggles to get fights to the ground and he doesn’t have very strong top control. His biggest weakness is that he has very low level striking and he doesn’t setup his takedowns properly. He either bum rushes his opponent looking for a takedown or he shoots in from way too far out. This gives his opponent’s an opportunity to see him coming and begin stuffing the takedown very early. Kyle Noke’s wrestling has never been his strong point, but he is very good at scrambling back to his feet when he does get taken down. He has also developed solid takedown defence since training at Jackson-Wink MMA. This has seen him defend 70% of all takedowns in his 11 fights in the UFC. Noke also has very good submission defence and a good awareness on the ground. Keita Nakamura has a bad habit of giving up position on the ground and leaving too many openings when trying to improve his position. Noke is very good at identifying opportunities to scramble and this should serve him well if Nakamura does manage to get this fight to the ground. It’s also worth noting that Noke is strong from top position and has very nasty ground and pound. Nakamura is tricky on the ground, but Noke is by no means outmatched entirely.

I believe that Kyle Noke has the takedown defence to keep the majority of this fight standing, where he will have a significant advantage over Nakamura. Over the last couple of years I feel like we’ve seen a career resurgence in Noke and this is shown in his striking which has dramatically improved. He now throws a very diverse range of strikes at a high volume and does a good job of attacking his opponent’s body and legs from outside of their striking range. Noke lands a much higher volume of strikes per minute than Nakamura and he should be able to chip away at Nakamura and pick him apart.

Nakamura is an awkward, single shot striker who does not look comfortable when the fight is standing. He also has poor striking defence and he’s very, very tentative. Nakamura barely threw a strike against Tom Breese back in February and I believe he’ll be the same against Noke because Noke is way more active and way more aggressive than Breese.

I believe Kyle Noke is a good bet in this fight because he has the grappling skills to stay competitive on the ground and the striking skills to dominate the stand up exchanges. I also like how he holds a size advantage over Nakamura and how we’ve already seen him put in a decent performance under the new USADA drug testing programme. At the current odds I feel like Kyle Noke is a very solid bet.

All of these Prop Bets were placed at either Paddy Power, Unibet or 5 Dimes.

[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Johny Lineker vs Michael McDonald

Michael McDonald to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 10.00 | +900
John Lineker to win by KO at odds of 2.80 | +180
John Lineker to win by decision at odds of 3.75 | +275

Landon Vannata vs Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson to win inside the distance at odds of 1.40 | -250
Landon Vannata to win by KO at odds of 14.00 | +1300

Josh Samman vs Tim Boetsch

Josh Samman to win by KO at odds of 3.60 | +260
Tim Boetsch to win by decision at odds of 5.00 | +400

Daniel Omielanczuk vs Oleysiy Olynyk

Oleysiy Olynyk to win by decision at odds of 6.00 | +500

Kyle Noke vs Keita Nakamura

Kyle Noke to win by decision at odds of 2.25 | +125
Kyle Noke to win by KO at odds of 5.50 | +450
Kyle Noke to win in round 3 by KO at odds of 21.00 | +2000

Ben Nguyen vs Louis Smolka

Ben Nguyen to win by decision at odds of 4.50 | +350
Louis Smolka to win by submission at odds of 5.00 | +400

Lauren Murphy vs Katlyn Chookagian

Lauren Murphy to win by decision at odds of 2.20 | +120

Eric Spicely vs Sam Alvey

Sam Alvey to win by KO at odds of 2.20 | +120
Eric Spicely to win by submission at odds of 10.00 | +900
Eric Spicely to win by decision at odds of 4.33 | +333

Cody Pfister vs Scott Holtzman

Scott Holtzman to win by decision at odds of 2.20 | +120

Devin Clark vs Alex Nicholson

Devin Clark to win by decision at odds of 3.10 | +210

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]