UFC on FOX 20 Betting Tips & Picks – Holm vs Shevchenko

UFC on FOX 20 is another bad event for betting because the entire card is full of inconsistent fighters or fighters with huge holes in their overall set of skills.

This month has been really bad for betting on the UFC and I honestly cannot remember the last time we had so many events in such a short space of time that were full of such a low level of fighter. These last few UFC events haven’t been that much better than a Bellator card and I really hope that the new UFC owners understand that fighters like Valentina Shevchenko should not be headlining the main event of a FOX card for the “Superbowl of Mixed Martial Arts”. What disappoints me the most about this event is that the UFC used to stack their FOX cards with top talent, but now their priorities seem to have shifted because low level fighters like Felice Herrig, Bojan Mihajlovic and Kailin Curran have found their way onto the main card of a major UFC event. None of these fighters should be anywhere near a main card of a UFC on FOX event, but the UFC continue to put on shows that are packed full of very low level fighters.

The good news is that everything seems to go back to normal next week because UFC 201 looks great for betting. I have also taken a look at the UFC events coming up in August and they also look great for betting.

After spending most of this week researching UFC on FOX 20, I believe I’ve found 2 solid bets that should return us a healthy profit. I will also be offering my highly lucrative Live Betting Tips for UFC on FOX 20. We’ve already made almost 8 units of profit this month, so don’t miss out on your opportunity to win some big money tonight. You can buy access to my Live Betting Tips by clicking here.

Good luck for tonight. I look forward to seeing you in the Chat Room!

Edson Barboza takes on Gilbert Melendez in the Co-Main event of UFC on FOX 20 and we believe that Edson Barboza is a great bet.

The blueprint on how to beat Edson Barboza was written by Michael Johnson and successfully followed by Tony Ferguson. Both these guys showed that if you can stay in Barboza’s face and pressure him, he struggles to find the time and space to get off his devastating kicks. Gilbert Melendez has tried to use this high pressure style of fighting in the past, but his cardio has always let him down. This is Melendez’s first fight back after a year long layoff after serving a 12 month suspension for failing a drugs test, which means it’s extremely unlikely that his cardio will have improved in this new UFC era under USADA. This means that Barboza is a good bet here, because it’s extremely unlikely that Gilbert Melendez will show up with good enough cardio to implement the one strategy that has been known to cause Barboza a problem.

We also have to take into consideration the fact that fighting Edson Barboza is no picnic, even when you do have the cardio to keep up a high pressure style of fighting for 15 minutes. Both Michael Johnson and Tony Ferguson had to put themselves in extreme danger to stay in Barboza’s face and I doubt that many UFC Lightweight’s would have been able to take the kind of damage that Tony Ferguson sustained against Barboza. Even if we see Melendez come into this fight with the best cardio of his career, it still might not be enough to win, because he’s going to have to take a lot of damage if he wants to wear Barboza down.

A big reason why I believe Edson Barboza is such a good bet is the current career trajectory that both guys are on. Barboza is coming into this fight on the back of the best performance of his career against Anthony Pettis, whilst Melendez is coming back off a 1 year layoff due to being suspended for using a banned substance. It’s also worth noting that Melendez has only won 1 fight in the last 4 years. This sole victory was an unimpressive decision win over Diego Sanchez. All of the momentum is with Edson Barboza right now and he appears to be full of confidence.

The outcome of this fight depends on whether or not Gilbert Melendez can stay in Barboza’s face for 15 minutes and whether or not he can take him down or control him against the cage for significant periods of this fight. I don’t believe he can control Barboza against the cage because Barboza has excellent footwork and movement and he’s very difficult to tie up. I also believe it’s unlikely that Melendez will be able to take Barboza down and control him on the ground because Melendez is not a strong wrestler and Barboza has excellent takedown defence. This is backed up by the fact that Barboza has defended 84% of all takedown attempts in 15 fights in the UFC.

If this fight stays standing I expect Barboza to blast Melendez from the outside with his devastating range of kicks. Melendez stays very heavy on his lead leg which will open him up to Barboza’s fight ending leg kicks. Barboza showed great footwork and movement in his fight against Tony Ferguson and he showed an improved ability to land powerful strikes in close range whilst moving backwards. Melendez isn’t as comfortable as Ferguson when imposing a high pressure style of fighting, so I expect to see Melendez sustain a significant amount of damage when trying to close the distance.

It’s also very unlikely that Gilbert Melendez will in this fight by knockout because he doesn’t have knockout power and hasn’t won a fight by KO in almost 7 years. Gilbert’s last win by KO came against Mitsuhiro Ishida back in 2009. It’s also worth noting that Barboza seems to have answered all the questions about his chin over the last few years, by showing a strong ability to take a punch in his recent fights. Barboza hasn’t been knocked out since 2012.

I believe that Edson Barboza will win this fight by using his high level striking to blast Melendez from the outside. Barboza is very difficult to tie up and very difficult to hold down, so I believe we’ll see Melendez turn into a panic wrestler after spamming takedowns early in the fight. This will most probably lead to Melendez gassing out like he has done in his last 2 fights, which means Barboza winning by late finish could be a good bet.