UFC 204 is a decent event for betting with several good opportunities for us to make some money. There are several fighters competing at UFC 204 who hold significant advantages over their opponents which means that banking a profit on this event should be relatively easy.
Our strategy for making money on UFC 204 is simple. We’re going to bet big and aggressively on a few fighters who are significantly better than their opponents and we’re also going to place 1 or 2 riskier bets where the payoff in the odds is definitely worth the implied risk. I see a good amount of value in some of the betting odds for UFC 204 and I am hoping that we can capitalize on the oddsmaker’s oversight by betting on the fighters where there is clear value.
I will also be giving out Live Betting Tips during UFC 204 in our
Live Betting Tips Chatroom. We have already made 86 units of profit in Live Betting since February of this year.
Don’t forget to share your bets for this weekend in our
UFC 204 Betting Discussion thread.
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UFC 204 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions
|
|
|
Current lean |
Implied probability |
Our probability |
Final bet |
| Dan Henderson |
vs |
Michael Bisping |
5 Units on Fight does NOT go the distance |
74% |
95% |
5 Units on Fight does NOT go the distance at odds of 1.36 | -278 |
| Gegard Mousasi |
vs |
Vitor Belfort |
3.5 Units on Gegard Mousasi to win |
74% |
85% |
3.5 Units on Gegard Mousasi to win at odds of 1.33 | -303 |
| Jimi Manuwa |
vs |
Ovince St-Preux |
2 Units on Jimi Manuwa to win |
42% |
60% |
2 Units on Jimi Manuwa to win at odds of 2.40 | +140 |
| Daniel Omielanczuk |
vs |
Stefan Struve |
2 Units on Stefan Struve to win |
63% |
65% |
2 Units on Stefan Struve to win at odds of 1.60 | -166 |
| Brad Pickett |
vs |
Iuri Alcantara |
No bet |
|
|
No bet |
| Mirsad Bektic |
vs |
Russell Doane |
No bet |
|
|
No bet |
| Damian Stasiak |
vs |
Davey Grant |
No bet |
|
|
No bet |
| Albert Tumenov |
vs |
Leon Edwards |
3 Units on Albert Tumenov to win |
69% |
75% |
3 Units on Albert Tumenov to win at odds of 1.46 | -217 |
| Danny Roberts |
vs |
Mike Perry |
No bet |
|
|
No bet |
| Adriano Martins |
vs |
Leonardo Santos |
No bet |
|
|
No bet |
| Lukasz Sajewski |
vs |
Marc Diakiese |
No bet |
|
|
No bet |
** The odds posted are correct at the time of publishing this article. **
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UFC 204 Picks
[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]
| Dan Henderson |
vs |
Michael Bisping |
Bisping to win |
| Gegard Mousasi |
vs |
Vitor Belfort |
Mousasi to win |
| Jimi Manuwa |
vs |
Ovince St-Preux |
Manuwa to win |
| Daniel Omielanczuk |
vs |
Stefan Struve |
Struve to win |
| Mirsad Bektic |
vs |
Russell Doane |
Bektic to win |
| Brad Pickett |
vs |
Iuri Alcantara |
Pickett to win |
| Damian Stasiak |
vs |
Davey Grant |
Grant to win |
| Albert Tumenov |
vs |
Leon Edwards |
Tumenov to win |
| Lukasz Sajewski |
vs |
Marc Diakiese |
Diakiese to win |
| Danny Roberts |
vs |
Mike Perry |
Roberts to win |
| Adriano Martins |
vs |
Leonardo Santos |
Santos to win |
