Having two UFC events in one week seems to have made the Bookies lazy because some of the odds on the fights taking place at the TUF 25 Finale are insane. I believe that there are several great opportunities to make money on this card.
I also want to remind you that this weekend is a HUGE opportunity to make money in Live Betting. On Friday and Saturday we have 24 different fights to look forward to and I’m sure we’re going to end the weekend with a massive profit. I hope you join us in our Live Betting Feed during the fights to take advantage of our highly profitable Live Betting Tips.
Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.
[box type=”warning” align=”aligncenter” class=”” width=””]
DO NOT PLACE BETS ON ALL OF OUR PICKS
In the table below we give our pick / prediction for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.
These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.
The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.
[/box]
Drakkar Klose vs Marc Diakiese Betting Tip and Prediction
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]When I first saw the odds for Drakkar Klose vs Marc Diakiese I was blown away. I believe this is one of those fights where the Bookies have not done their homework and set the odds completely wrong. After watching footage on both Klose and Diakiese I personally would cap Klose at around a 1.44 | -227 | 11/25 favourite, so I cannot believe that he opened up as a 3.40 | +240 | 12/5 underdog.
Drakkar Klose is your typical MMA Lab fighter. He’s not particularly good at anything, but he’s tough, consistent and aggressive. He comes forward, he looks to push you up against the cage and make the fight ugly. These kinds of fighters tend to be Kryptonite for guys like Marc Diakiese who have poor cardio and rely on their explosiveness.
Diakiese is extremely dangerous in the 1st round, but Klose has a great chin and he’s very tough. If he can weather the early storm he should go on to comfortably win this fight in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. There’s a chance that Diakiese has made massive improvements in the short time he has been training at American Top Team, but he relies too much on his explosiveness and his cardio is really bad. ATT would have had to completely overhaul his technique to tighten up this hole in his game and I don’t see them being able to help Diakiese make those wholesale improvements because he has only been training with them for just over 6 months.
It’s always a gamble when we bet against guys like Diakiese who have explosive KO power, but Klose is a nightmare matchup for him and I strongly feel like this is a great bet. I expect the odds to crash hard on Klose over the next few hours, so please lock in your bets ASAP.
Reasons for betting on Drakkar Klose to beat Marc Diakiese...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese has poor takedown defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese has bad cardio.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese has bad fight IQ and bad pacing. He sprints in the 1st round and then fades hard in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese relies too much on power and explosiveness. His technique is not fluid or efficient. This causes him to get tired fast. He isn’t dangerous past the 1st round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese throws a lot of high risk, low reward strikes that leave him wide open to getting knocked out or taken down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese reaches a lot when throwing strikes and throws wild looping hooks. This opens him up to big counters and leaves him wide open to getting taken down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Drakkar Klose has great fight IQ. He is a grinder. He does what he needs to do to win. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Drakkar Klose is tough, aggressive and consistent.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Drakkar Klose smothers his opponent’s with constant pressure.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Drakkar Klose is a strong grappler with decent Boxing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marc Diakiese is very low level on the ground. He makes a lot of mistakes.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk factors with betting on Drakkar Klose to win...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Marc Diakiese is extremely dangerous in the 1st round, he has explosive KO power in every strike.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]ATT is the best MMA gym in the world and it’s impossible to tell how much Diakiese has improved in his time training with them.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Drakkar Klose to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units
[3% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 3.20 Moneyline = +220 Fractional = 11/5
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Drakkar Klose has a 31% chance of beating Marc Diakiese based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Drakkar Klose has a 70% chance of beating Marc Diakiese based on our extensive research and analysis.
C.B. Dollaway vs Ed Herman Betting Tip and Prediction
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Ed Herman was on season 3 of the Ultimate fighter and he’s been in the UFC for 11 years. There are only 3 fighters left in the UFC who competed on the first three seasons of the Ultimate Fighter. They are Michael Bisping, Diego Sanchez and Ed Herman…
Herman has had a good career, but in the last 2 years he has experienced a notable decline in cardio and athleticism. There aren’t many oldschool Ultimate Fighter alumni left in the UFC because Father time catches up with everyone and having watched Herman’s last few fights I can’t help but feel that Father time has been knocking on his door for a while.
Betting on C.B. Dollaway to win this fight isn’t totally risk free because this is his first fight back in 18 months, but Dollaway is younger, more athletic and more skilled than Herman in every single aspect of MMA. If it wasn’t for Dollaway’s long layoff this would undoubtedly be a 5 unit bet. Dollaway’s lay off is a slight concern, but he should still be more than capable of beating Herman.
Reasons for betting on C.B. Dollaway to beat Ed Herman...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ed Herman is currently on a very rapid decline.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ed Herman has lost his speed, power and explosiveness.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ed Herman has lost his athleticism. This means that he now stands rigid and flat footed.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ed Herman is very slow and he has poor reflexes and movement.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]C.B. Dollaway is tough and well rounded.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ed Herman is 36 years old and has a ton of MMA miles on the clock.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]C.B. Dollaway is 3 years younger than Herman. They are both at a point in their careers where this slight age difference can make a big difference. The male body starts to produce less and less Testosterone from age 33 onwards, which means Dollaway hasn’t quite reached the point where where his body will start to physically decline as rapidly as Herman’s has. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]C.B. Dollaway is significantly better than Ed Herman in every single aspect of MMA at this point in their careers.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ed Herman has very poor striking defence and Dollaway has KO power.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Dollaway looks like he is in incredible shape going into this fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Herman has no clear path to victory.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk factors with betting on C.B. Dollaway to win...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]This is Dollaway’s first fight back after an 18 month layoff.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Herman has KO power.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]C.B. Dollaway to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units
[3% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.54 Moneyline = -185 Fractional = 27/50
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that C.B. Dollaway has a 65% chance of beating Ed Herman based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that C.B. Dollaway has a 75% chance of beating Ed Herman based on our extensive research and analysis.
Justin Gaethje vs Michael Johnson Betting Tip and Prediction
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Before I give you my reasons why I believe Michael Johnson is an excellent bet, I’d like you to see it for yourself. Take a look at some of Justin Gaethje’s most recent fights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51uBIiNwtxU
As you can see, Gaethje is a tough, aggressive, well-rounded fighter, but you should also be able to see that his fighting style is deeply flawed. You can get away with fighting like this against a lower level opponent in smaller promotions like the World Series of Fighting, but in the UFC it is not an effective strategy. There is a reason why guys like Diego Sanchez and Leonard Garcia struggled to compete against more technically skilled opponents throughout their entire careers.
There is no denying that Gaethje has the heart of a Champion and that he is as tough as they come, but Michael Johnson has outstruck super high-level strikers like Edson Barboza and Beneil Dariush. Based on Gaethje’s performances over the last three years, I honestly cannot see any plausible situation where he could cause Michael Johnson a problem.
Gaethje’s style of fighting is only effective when you can apply relentless pressure in the way that someone like Stipe Miocic can. Crowding your opponent and not giving them space to work is an effective strategy in MMA, but Gaethje doesn’t fight like this. Instead, he comes forward flat footed and fights in bursts. He doesn’t cut angles, and he is very poor at managing range and distance. Michael Johnson has some of the best footwork and movement in the UFC’s Lightweight division, and he should be able to dance around Gaethje all night long.
This is a very easy fight for Michael Johnson. If he can weather the early storm, I expect him to dominate Justin Gaethje…
Reasons for betting on Michael Johnson to beat Justin Gaethje...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson is a significantly better striker than Justin Gaethje.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has excellent takedown defense having defended 79% of all takedowns across 17 fights in the UFC. This is an extremely impressive statistic when you take into account the fact that Johnson has fought skilled grapplers such as Beneil Dariush, Gleison Tibau, Dustin Poirier, Jonathan Brookins, Danny Castillo, Reza Madadi, Tony Ferguson, Myles Jury, Joe Lauzon and he even did a much better job than most of defending takedowns against Khabib Nurmagomedov.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson is one of the fastest fighters in the UFC’s Lightweight division. He will be significantly faster than anyone that Gaethje has ever fought.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has pinpoint accuracy with his strikes and deadly combos.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson is a dangerous Southpaw with KO power in his hands.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has excellent distance control and timing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has some of the best footwork and movement in the UFC’s Lightweight division. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Justin Gaethje is making his UFC debut. Fighters coming from other promotions usually underperform in their debut.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has experience competing against a much higher level of opponent than Justin Gaethje.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Justin Gaethje has bad fight IQ and bad pacing. He sprints in the first round and then slows down considerably after that.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Justin Gaethje has questionable cardio. He slows down a lot from round to round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Justin Gaethje has awful striking defense. He is a sitting duck to getting knocked out.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Justin Gaethje is flat footed and utilizes no head movement or footwork.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Justin Gaethje is too reckless and wild. This style of fighting is not effective against top 10 opponents in the UFC.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk factors with betting on Michael Johnson to win...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Justin Gaethje is a former NCAA Div 1 level wrestler.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Justin Gaethje pushes his opponent’s hard and fights at a relentless pace.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Justin Gaethje is extremely tough. You practically have to kill him to beat him.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Justin Gaethje is very aggressive. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Michael Johnson to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3.5 Units
[3.5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.69 Moneyline = -145 Fractional = 69/100
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Michael Johnson has a 59% chance of beating Justin Gaethje based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Michael Johnson has an 80% chance of beating Justin Gaethje based on our extensive research and analysis.


