EDDIE ALVAREZ vs GILBERT MELENDEZ BETTING TIP
When I first started to research the fight between Eddie Alvarez and Gilbert Melendez I was completely torn on who would win. After-all, Alvarez done pretty well against Donald Cerrone and it concerned me that Melendez seemed willing to take a punch to land a punch in some of his recent fights. This type of fighting style can often be dangerous against a guy like Alvarez, who has good technical striking and knockout power. As the hours past, I spent more and more time watching footage on Alvarez and Melendez and the more I watched them the more I became convinced that Melendez would win… Gilbert Melendez is perfectly setup to win this fight because Eddie Alvarez likes to stay on the outside and pick his opponent’s off as they try to close the distance. I believe he does this because he has a short reach for a Lightweight and initiating striking exchanges with a short reach, would often lead to him getting hit as he tried to exit the range of a longer opponent. In contrast, Melendez is very aggressive and he loves to hold the centre of the Octagon. This striking dynamic between the two fighters will mean that they both get to fight in the positions they feel most comfortable and I believe that this will lead to both fighters putting in a performance consistent to what we have seen from them throughout their careers. In a well balanced fight, you always have to favour the more aggressive guy who can hold the centre of the Octagon because judges award points for aggression and Octagon control. Eddie Alvarez will be happy to give up the centre of the Octagon to Gilbert Melendez, which means Melendez will be scoring points and winning the fight from the very first second. In order for Eddie Alvarez to win this fight, he’s going to have to finish Melendez, clearly outstrike Melendez from the outside or have big moments in the fight which will put his stamp on rounds. I don’t believe that he will be do any of those things and that’s the reason why I’m betting on Melendez to win… [box type=”info” align=”aligncenter” class=”” width=””] I’ve already made 50.50 units of profit in 2015. This means that betting just $10 a unit on each of my betting tips over the last 5 months would have resulted in a profit of $505 Betting $100 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $5050 and betting $1000 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $50,500. My results in 2015 are tracked and verified by Cappertek, a 3rd party bet tracking platform. Click here to checkout my Cappertek verified results for 2015…[/box] I don’t believe that Eddie Alvarez can beat Gilbert Melendez inside the distance because Melendez has a strong ground game and he’s never been finished by knockout or TKO. I don’t believe that Alvarez will be able to clearly outstrike Melendez from the outside, because Melendez is an aggressive, high volume puncher who will match Alvarez strike for strike. I also don’t believe that Alvarez will be able to put his stamp on rounds, because Melendez has a good chin, power in his hands and he can steal rounds with takedowns and cage control. You also have to take into consideration the fact that Gilbert Melendez is of Mexican descent, which means he’ll have the crowd on his side at UFC 188. This effectively gives Melendez home advantage, which will make it even harder for Alvarez to steal rounds. If rounds end up being close [which its very likely they will be], you have to think that the judges will be swayed by the crowd and score the fight in favour of Melendez. I don’t think that this fight will be easy and I don’t think Melendez will dominate, but I do believe that he’ll be the man who gets his hand raised in victory at the end of the fight. I believe that Melendez will control the centre of the Octagon and use his 4 inch reach advantage to match Alvarez strike for strike. I believe that it will be very difficult for Alvarez to do enough in this fight to take a decision away from Melendez in Mexico. I believe that Melendez will win this fight with forward pressure, aggression and volume. I don’t expect this bet to be an easy winner, but I do expect it to win and making money is the only thing that matters. This won’t be one of those blow out wins where we make some easy cash, but I do expect Melendez to win. [adrotate group=”74″]Click here to read more of my betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC 188 Cain Velasquez vs Fabricrio Werdum.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Gilbert Melendez to win at odds of 1.58 | -173 | 29/50
