KSW 41 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

With no UFC events this weekend we turn our attention to KSW 41 which takes place this Saturday night. You can watch KSW 41 Live and in HD on KSW TV.

Fight	Betting Tip	Pick
Borys Mankowski vs Roberto Soldic	Researching	Researching
Pawel Rak vs Tomasz Oświeciński	No bet	Rak to win
Artur Sowinski vs Kleber Koike Erbst	3 units on Sowinski to win at odds of 2.00 \| +100 \| 1/1	Sowinski to win
Marcin Wrzosek vs Roman Szymański	No bet	Szymański to win
Antoni Chmielewski vs Damian Janikowski	Researching	Researching
Grzegorz Szulakowski vs Kamil Szymuszowski	No bet	Szymuszowski to win
Fernando Rodrigues vs Michał Andryszak	3 units on Andryszak to win at odds of 1.40 \| -250 \| 2/5	Andrysak to win
Gracjan Szadziński vs Maciej Kazieczko	Researching	Researching
Łukasz Rajewski vs Salahdine Parnasse	Researching	Researching

Artur Sowinski vs Kleber Koike Erbst Betting Tip and Prediction

When Artur Sowinski fought Kleber Koike Erbst the first time, it looked like a man was fighting a boy. Sowinski easily overpowered Erbst and was able to stay calm in all of the bad positions that Erbst was able to put him in. You can watch their first fight from back in 2015 below:

https://youtu.be/EQJAtHwCcP4

Since that match up took place, Sowinski and Erbst have both improved their wrestling, but Erbst’s cardio has not improved. He still slows down in the 2nd round of each fight, and by the 3rd round, he tends to gas out big time.

If this rematch was 3 rounds, I believe it would be much closer, but the fact that this is a 5 round fight makes this a great matchup for Sowinski. Erbst simply does not have the cardio to win the 4th and 5th rounds against Sowinski, and we saw in their first matchup how hard Sowinski is to finish.

The thing I like about Sowinski is that he is a tactical fighter. He doesn’t take any unnecessary risks. We saw in their first matchup how he fought smart and didn’t over commit to anything in case of being taken down. Since then his fight IQ has improved considerably.

Sowinski is currently the KSW Featherweight Champion. He’s very popular in Poland, and home advantage is huge in KSW. Erbst missed weight and has to win inside the distance to stand any chance of beating Sowinski. We saw in their first fight that it is not easy to submit Sowinski and for that reason, I believe he’s a great bet at the current odds.

Reasons for betting on Artur Sowinski

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Artur Sowinski has developed strong wrestling and solid takedown defense since his last fight with Erbst.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Artur Sowinski is a significantly better striker.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Artur Sowinski is primarily a grappler and he proved in his first fight against Erbst that he can hang on the ground with him.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Artur Sowinski has home advantage. Home advantage is huge in KSW.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kleber Koike Erbst has very bad cardio. He usually starts to gas out in round 1 and 2.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kleber Koike Erbst missed weight for this fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kleber Koike Erbst has no plan B. If he cannot take Sowinski down he will fade hard.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Erbst does not have the cardio to compete in a 5 round fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sowinski is very physically strong.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sowinski is very tactical and has good fight IQ. He doesn’t over commit to anything or put himself in unnecessary danger.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on Artur Sowinski

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Kleber Koike Erbst has a very high level ground game.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Kleber Koike Erbst has improved his wrestling since he last fought Sowinski.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]KSW are using the new judging criteria for this event. This favours Erbst because Erbst is very active off his back.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Sowinski to win

Recommended Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1

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Implied Probability

What is implied probability?

The bookies believe that Artur Sowinski has a 50% chance of beating Kleber Koike Erbst based on their current odds.

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Our Probability

How do you calculate your probabilities?

We believe that Artur Sowinski has a 75% chance of beating Kleber Koike Erbst based on our extensive research and analysis.