KELVIN GASTELUM vs NATE MARQUARDT BETTING TIP
Kelvin Gastelum put in the performance of his career the last time he fought in Mexico and I’m expecting a similar performance from him at UFC 188. Gastelum is of Mexican descent and he had a good reception from the Mexican fans when he fought at UFC 180 back in November. I expect the Mexican fans to get right behind him this weekend, which will give him a big advantage over Nate Marquardt. Kelvin’s skills in the Octagon have never been in question. He’s a well rounded fighter, with strong wrestling, decent Boxing and a big heart. He’s also shown good cardio throughout his career, despite the fact that he fights at a very high pace and has weight cutting issues. Not being able to make the Welterweight weight limit has been a huge black cloud that has hung over Kelvin since he first won the Ultimate Fighter at Middleweight back in 2013. That won’t be an issue in this fight, because he’s fighting Nate Marquardt at Middleweight, NOT Welterweight. Fighting at Middleweight means that Kelvin will be able to focus on his performance as opposed to his weight cut and it should enable him to fight at an even higher pace than what we normally see from him. Nate Marquardt has looked a shadow of his former self since he stopped using TRT. He’s lost 4 out of his last 5 fights and he looked really bad in his last fight against Brad Tavares. Kelvin Gastelum is 13 years younger than Nate Marquardt and the younger fighter wins around 70% of the time when there is a 13 year age gap in a fight. Nate Marquardt is coming to the end of his career, whilst Kelvin Gastelum has a bright future ahead of him. MMA has moved on so much since Marquardt was a top contender and I don’t believe that he’s evolved enough to compete against the next generation of MMA fighter like Kelvin Gastelum. I really don’t see what Marquardt can do to win this fight. Gastelum has better striking, he throws a higher volume of strikes and he’s also a lot faster. It’s difficult to say whether he has better wrestling than Marquardt, but at this stage of their careers, he certainly has the strength and cardio to stuff any of Marquardt’s takedown attempts and keep the fight on his terms. Kelvin Gastelum’s biggest weapon in the Octagon is the pace at which he is able to fight at. Gastelum is relentless and I don’t believe that Marquardt has the skills to slow him down or match the younger fighter at this stage in his career. I know that the odds on Gastelum to win are bad, but I feel he’s worth a bet when you take into consideration all the advantages that has he has in this fight. [adrotate group=”83″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Kelvin Gastelum to win at odds of 1.27 | -365 | 27/100
[divider]
CHICO CAMUS vs HENRY CEJUDO BETTING TIP
Chico Camus and Henry Cejudo are both well rounded and they’re both tough to finish. This is reflected by the fact that 11 of Chico Camus’ last 12 fights have lasted longer than 2.5 rounds and Cejudo’s last 4 fights have all gone to a decision. Some people believe that this will be an easy win for Cejudo, but I disagree. I do believe that Cejudo will win, but Camus is tough enough and well rounded enough to make this fight competitive. Fights that take place at altitude are more likely to go the distance because fighters get tired faster. This means there are a lot less finishes because strikes aren’t thrown with as much speed, technique or power. This obviously makes knockouts at altitude significantly less likely. Fighters also tend to sweat a lot more, which makes it more difficult to lock in submissions. Camus and Cejudo are both tough and well rounded and they regularly fight to a decision. As a result, I recommend that you bet on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds. [adrotate group=”125″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.45 | -222 | 9/20
[divider]
FRANCISCO TREVINO vs JOHNNY CASE BETTING TIP
I don’t normally like to bet against fighters who are undefeated, because being undefeated can often mean that you’re tough as hell and refuse to lose. This might be the case with Francisco Trevino [12-0], but I still have to bet against him because he’s clearly second best to Johnny Case wherever this fight takes place. When I first watched footage of some of Trevino’s recent fights, I was surprised that he held an impressive undefeated MMA record of 12-0. His performances didn’t reflect this impressive record, so I started to evaluate the credentials of each of his past opponents. After examining Trevino’s MMA record more closely, I found that his 12-0 record consisted mainly of wins against a very low level of opponent. Most of the guys he has defeated only had 1 or 2 fights when he fought them. The rest of the guys he has faced either had poor winning records or losing records of 4-6 etc. Being able to identify that Trevino had an extremely padded record made me feel more comfortable about betting against an undefeated 12-0 fighter. Skill for skill, Johnny Case is better everywhere. He has more technical striking, he’s more active and he’s in a different league on the ground. If this fight stays standing, I expect Case to pick Trevino apart with his more diverse range of strikes and higher volume. Trevino is in big trouble if this fight goes to the ground. This is bad news for him because he doesn’t have very good takedown defence and Case likes to mix up his striking with takedowns. Johnny Case is 8 years younger than Francisco Trevino and the younger fighter wins around 68% of the time when there’s an 8 year age gap in a fight. I know the odds on Case to win are bad, but he holds significant advantages over Trevino which should make this an easy fight for him. [adrotate group=”52″]MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Johnny Case to win at odds of 1.30 | -336 | 3/10
[divider]
DREW DOBER vs EFRAIN ESCUDERO BETTING TIP
I’m not sure why Efrain Escudero was brought back into the UFC. His performances on the regional circuit weren’t that impressive and he hasn’t looked very good in his last few fights. Escudero currently trains at the MMA Lab and he’s apparently turned a corner in his career after hiring a Nutritionist and taking the sport more seriously. That sounds great and it’s possible that he could show up and put in the performance of his career at UFC 188, but based on his past performances he should struggle against Drew Dober. Efrain Escudero is described as a strong wrestler, which has always confused me because he’s never shown strong wrestling in any his fights. His takedowns are lazy and he often chooses to stand and strike with his opponent’s even when it’s clear that his only path to victory is taking his opponent down. If this fight stays standing, I expect Dober to win comfortably, because he’s a much better striker than Efrain Escudero. He also throws a higher volume of strikes, he’s more powerful and he fights at a very high pace. Dober also has a significant advantage in this fight because he’s a natural Southpaw, which means his strikes will come from different angles and confuse a low level striker like Escudero. Escudero’s only chance of winning this fight is to take Dober down and control him on the ground. He certainly could do this, but his past performances suggest that he won’t. He’s far more likely to want to stand and strike with Dober and this will almost certainly result in him losing the fight. Most of Escudero’s takedown attempts are lazy and this is reflected by the fact that he only successfully completes 55% of all takedown attempts. He also only completes 1.27 takedowns per fight. These statistics indicate that the majority of this fight is likely to take place standing. Dober has reasonably good takedown defence having defended 69% of all takedown attempts in the UFC and his takedown defence should be good enough to stuff the majority of Escudero’s takedown attempts or at least make Escudero work for them. UFC 188 takes place at altitude which I believe is another big advantage for Drew Dober. I feel this way because Escudero has had cardio issues throughout his career and slows down a lot as the fight goes on. In contrast, Drew Dober has excellent cardio and fights at a relentless pace. I don’t believe that Escudero will be able to keep up with Dober’s pace and I believe that Escudero will gas out after trying to match Dober’s output in the 1st round. Efrain Escudero is of Mexican descent which means the crowd will be behind him at UFC 188. This is obviously a big disadvantage for Drew Dober, but Dober has experience fighting in enemy territory and the crowd doesn’t appear to have an impact on his performances. [He fought Nick Hein in Germany and he fought Leandro Silva in Brazil] I believe that Drew Dober has the skills to keep the majority of this fight standing, which will give him a big advantage over Escudero because Dober is a significantly better striker. Dober should be able to win this fight with volume and aggression. I expect Escudero to gas out by midway through the second round, which will enable Dober to take over the fight and put his stamp on the final two rounds. In addition to betting on Drew Dober to win, I recommend that you place a bet on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds. Betting on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds is a good move because Dober and Escudero are both tough and they’re both well rounded. Escudero might have cardio issues, but he still hangs in there and he’s tough to finish. It’s also worth noting that 14 out of Escudero’s last 15 fights have lasted longer than 2.5 rounds and 3 out of Dober’s last 4 fights that weren’t ruled a “No Contest” have also gone the distance. [adrotate group=”91″]MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Drew Dober to win at odds of 1.66 | -151 | 33/50
MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.42 | -238 | 21/50
[divider]
ALBERT TUMENOV vs ANDREW TODHUNTER BETTING TIP
Albert Tumenov is a murderer. He’s the worst kind of guy to fight because he’s great at everything. He’s also tough as nails and dangerous from every position. Andrew Todhunter is taking this fight on just 10 days notice and I feel bad for him. Todhunter’s camp would only except this fight if the UFC gave him a 4 fight contract and I believe that this is because Todhunter expects to lose. Fighting a guy like Albert Tumenov is always going to be difficult, but it’s even more difficult when you have to fight him on short notice. Todhunter will be taking this fight without having a proper training camp, without being in shape and with the added pressure of having to lose 30lbs in just 10 days! In order to lose 30 lbs in 10 days you have to starve yourself, dehydrate yourself and sweat… A LOT. This kind of process is extremely stressful on the body and I expect Todhunter to look like a shell of a man when he steps on the scales to weigh in for UFC 188. There’s no way that Todhunter will be able to lose 30 lbs of weight by Friday and then fully recover in time for his fight on Saturday night. It’s just not going to happen. The fact that this fight is taking place at altitude is absolutely brutal, because Todhunter’s body will already be struggling and fighting at altitude will also mean that his body will be starved of vital Oxygen. I respect Todhunter for being a warrior and taking the fight on short notice, but I’d seriously consider betting on Tumenov to beat any Welterweight in the world under these circumstances. I’ve watched footage on Todhunter and whilst he appears to be a decent wrestler, he struggles to hold people down. Tumenov has ungodly takedown defence and he does a really good job of springing back up when he gets taken down. If Todhunter does manage to take Tumenov down, I don’t believe he will be able to hold him there for more than 10 – 20 seconds, which means he’ll gas out fast trying to keep Tumenov on the ground. If this fight stays standing, Todhunter is at constant risk of being knocked out. There are few people in the UFC that cover distance and land 3 – 4 punch combos with the speed, accuracy and technique that Tumenov can land them. I doubt that Todhunter has even sparred with anyone in the same league as Tumenov when it comes to striking. This fight is a total mismatch and Todhunter is second best everywhere. I expect him to go flat out in the first couple of minutes to try and win the fight before Tumenov takes over and destroys him. I have no idea how Henry Cejudo is a bigger favourite over Chico Camus than Tumenov is over Todhunter, but I don’t care, I’ll take the value. Unless something absolutely crazy happens, this will be an easy fight for Tumenov. [adrotate group=”91″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Albert Tumenov to win at odds of 1.25 | -394 | 1/4
[divider]
