COSTAS PHILIPPOU vs GEGARD MOUSASI BETTING TIP
I don’t normally like to bet on heavy favourites but Costas Philippou doesn’t have a realistic chance of winning this fight and a bet on Gegard Mousasi gives us around a 20% return on our money. Mousasi should easily beat Costas Philippou unless he sustains an injury or gets caught with a freak strike that knocks him out cold. Philippou is the perfect opponent for Gegard Mousasi, because he has no wrestling, no ground game and he likes to stand and strike. This puts him at a big disadvantage in this fight because Mousasi is a significantly better striker. This is backed up by the fact that Mousasi lands an average of 30% more strikes per minute and he also gets hit half as much. Philippou has power in his hands but Mousasi has some of the best striking defence in the Middleweight division. He’s also faster, more well rounded and a lot more technical. Costas Philippou is now 35 years old and he’s talked about retirement in the past. This is never a good sign and I feel his one dimensional style of striking puts him at a big disadvantage against a more well rounded fighter like Mousasi. It feels like Gegard Mousasi has been fighting forever but he’s still only 29 years old, which means he’s currently competing in his prime. Mousasi is 6 years younger than Costas Philippou, which gives him another advantage in this fight. I know that some people feel uncomfortable betting big on heavy favourites, but Costas Philippou will need a miracle to win this fight. Gegard Mousasi is simply better than him everywhere. [adrotate group=”136″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Gegard Mousasi to win at odds of 1.22 | -455 | 11/50
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HYUN GYU LIM vs NEIL MAGNY BETTING TIP
Hyun Gyu Lim and Neil Magny both have an abnormally long reach for the Welterweight division. This has helped them to keep their opponent’s on the end of their punches and get the better of many stand up exchanges. This will be the first fight in a long time where both these guys face an opponent that they don’t have a significant reach advantage over. Hyun Gyu Lim appears to have decent Boxing, but I believe that his reach advantage over almost all of his previous opponents have resulted in him looking a lot better than he actually is. If you go back and watch his fight against Tarec Saffiedine, you’ll notice that Saffiedine struggles to deal with Lim’s reach in the 1st round. As soon as Saffiedine adjusted to the reach and managed to get inside, he picked Lim apart and repeatedly lit him up with big combos. Neil Magny has a 3 inch reach advantage over Lim, which means he won’t have a problem getting inside. Lim relies on his long reach to get out of the way of strikes and he won’t have that luxury against Magny. Lim actually has very bad striking defence and he’s extremely easy to hit. Neil Magny does a great job of staying all the way out of his opponent’s range or quickly closing the distance. You’ll hardly ever see him hanging around in his opponent’s striking range and this makes it extremely hard to inflict damage or slow him down. Recently we’ve see Tim Means wrecking people in the Welterweight division and just 12 months ago Magny was able to stay out of Tim’s range, work his jab and get inside frequently to clinch or land takedowns. Tim Means is a much more skilled fighter than Hyun Gyu Lim and he fights very long. I believe that Magny’s fight against Means is a blueprint for how his fight against Lim will play out. I really like betting on Neil Magny because he’s extremely well rounded, he has cardio for days and he’s a very intelligent fighter. I love betting on guys with good fight IQ and Magny understands the importance of winning rounds to win fights. His well rounded style of fighting also enables him to switch up his gameplan during a fight if things aren’t going his way. If he’s losing the striking exchanges he can clinch and take his opponents down and if he’s out matched on the ground he has the defensive wrestling and range to keep a fight standing. Magny’s well rounded style of fighting also gives him an edge because his opponent’s can never be sure what tactics he’s going to use in a fight. We absolutely know that Lim is going to try and walk Magny down and turn this into a brawl, but Lim has no idea what gameplan Magny is going to use. Magny’s unpredictability gives him a big advantage, especially when he fights one dimensional fighters such as Lim. Neil Magny should easily be able to win this fight by staying on the outside and keeping Lim out of striking range with his footwork and jabs. He should be able to use his superior grappling to steal rounds with clinch work and takedowns. I personally cap Magny at around 1.44 | -227, which makes him a good value bet at the current odds. [adrotate group=”62″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Neil Magny to win at odds of 1.87 | -115 | 87/100
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DHIEGO LIMA vs JINGLIANG LI BETTING TIP
I believe the odds on this fight are the wrong way around. I literally have no idea why Dhiego Lima is a favourite over Jingliang Li. The current odds of 2.70 | +170 on Li to win are superb value because I’d personally cap him at around 1.66. This is a really tough fight for Dhiego Lima because Li is tough as hell, he’s well rounded and he fights at a relentless pace. Lima has shown throughout his career that he wilts under pressure and his cardio has also let him down in the past. Li should be able to grind out a win by walking Lima down and outworking him over the duration of 3 rounds. I give Li the advantage in almost any area that this fight could take place. If it stays standing, Li can use his more technical striking to come out on top. Li also does a great job of catching opponents with crisp counter strikes. Lima’s striking defence is very poor and I can definitely see Li winning this fight by knockout or at the very least rocking Lima a few times with his big counter punches. Lima showed in his fight against Jorge Oliveira that he’s still very green on the ground. Li isn’t a highly skilled grappler either, but he is very strong, he does have decent Jiu Jitsu and he also has nasty ground and pound from top position. Li’s nickname is the “Leech”, which tells you all you need to know about his style of fighting and grappling technique. Li likes to apply constant pressure to his opponents, stick to them like a Leech and break them down until they wilt. Li is the exact type of fighter that Lima struggles against and it’s tough to see a way in which Lima could win this fight. You also have to take into account the fact that Lima is taking this fight on less than 4 weeks notice and the fact that he doesn’t have any experience competing in Asia. Li has competed all over Asia, so he should be a lot more comfortable competing in the Octagon come fight night. [adrotate group=”127″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Jingliang Li to win at odds of 2.70 | +170 | 17/10
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