UFC 207 is the last UFC event of the year, so I really hope that we can end 2016 with a profit. This event looks great for betting so I do feel confident that we can make some money on Friday night.
Don’t forget to take advantage of our Live Betting Tips which we will be posting in our Live Betting Tips chatroom during UFC 207. We’ve already made over 135 units of profit this year and I expect to add to that at UFC 207. Our Live Betting Tips are completely free and the fastest, safest and easiest way to make significant amounts of money betting on MMA.
Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips for UFC 207 as we get closer to the time of the event.
Betting Tip 1: Amanda Nunes vs Ronda Rousey
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]The fighting styles of both Amanda Nunes and Ronda Rousey make for a fight that simply cannot last more than 7.5 minutes. This is because if the fight stays standing, Ronda cannot take Amanda’s power and if it goes to the ground, Amanda cannot hang with a dangerous submission grappler of Ronda’s level. I don’t have a strong opinion on who I believe we will this fight, but I do feel very confident that it will end in the 1st round.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]14 out of Ronda Rousey’s 15 career fights have ended in less than 1.5 rounds. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ronda Rousey has only ever fought past 7.5 minutes one time in her entire career.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Amanda Nunes has 7 1st round finishes in her last 11 fights.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ronda Rousey has very poor striking defence and Amanda Nunes has the power and technique to hurt her if the fight stays standing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ronda Rousey is a super high level submission grappler. Nunes does not have the skills to defend herself from being submitted if the fight goes to the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rousey and Nunes are both super aggressive fighters who both possess the skills to end this fight in the very first exchange.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]This is a high pressure, high stakes fight which means that both girls may choose to fight more tentatively than they usually do.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anything can happen in MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Under 1.5 rounds
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units
[3% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.48 Moneyline = -208 Fractional = 12/25
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that this fight has a has a 68% chance of lasting less than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that this fight has a 70% chance of lasting less than 1.5 rounds based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 2: Tim Means to beat Alex Oliveira
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Tim Means is one of those super skilled fighters that is highly underrated due to a few poor performances that occurred earlier in his career. The reason for these poor performances is part mental and partly down to the fact that Means is huge at 6 ft 2 and chose to compete at Lightweight when he first came into the UFC. If you go back and take a look at Means’ past performances, you’ll see that he has only ever underperformed when competing in the Lightweight division. Like many fighters who move up in weight class, Means has looked absolutely incredible since he stepped up and started to fight at Welterweight.
The Tim Means that we have seen competing at 170 pounds is tough, great at everything and fights at a relentless pace. He is like a whirlwind of violence and guys like this are extremely difficult to deal with unless you can match their violence and output head on. Matt Brown was able to beat Tim Means by fighting fire with fire but Oliveira does not possess the technical skills, cardio or toughness to implement this kind of gameplan.
There is a small chance that Alex Oliveira could wet blanket Tim Means for 3 rounds, but I feel like it’s far more likely we’ll see Means win this fight by breaking Oliveira down with a tidal wave of violence. Tim Means is one of the most exciting up and coming fighters in the Welterweight division because he is one of the few guys who is great at everything. I expect him to make a big statement at UFC 207 by putting in a dominant performance against Oliveira.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means is super aggressive and fights at a relentless pace. He never gets tired and he never stops trying to hurt his opponent. He is constantly throwing elbows, kicks, punches and knees. He doesn’t give his opponent a break and it’s extremely difficult to deal with this type of opponent unless you can meet them head on and fight fire with fire. Alex Oliveira doesn’t have the cardio, technique or heart to meet Tim Means head on. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means lands a much higher volume of strikes per round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means throws a much wider range of strikes than Alex Oliveira.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Alex Oliveira is a low level grappler. He has poor wrestling technique and low level Jiu Jitsu. He does everything with bull power and strength. He doesn’t use proper technique. This kind of fighting style uses up a lot of energy. For this reason Oliveira will become significantly less effective the longer the fight goes on.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means doesn’t waste much time defending takedowns against the cage. He prefers to give up takedowns and then uses his length to quickly stand back up. This is demoralising for his opponents because they have to use a lot of energy to get him down, only to see him immediately stand right back up.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Alex Oliveira has poor top control. Tim Means does a great job of using his length to post and stand back up when he gets taken down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means is much more technical on the ground and he’s very active off his back. Oliveira might be the one who initiates the grappling exchanges, but I feel like Means is the guy who will have the advantage on the ground. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means is dangerous from every position. He can finish the fight standing up, on the ground or in the clinch.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]All of Oliveira’s takedowns come from the clinch. He spends alot of time trying to take his opponents down against the cage. This is one of the positions where Tim Means is the most dangerous. Means is able to inflict a lot of damage in the clinch with elbows, knees and short punches. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Alex Oliveira is a very easy fighter to gameplan for. He has no plan B. You know that he is going to try and pin you on the cage and grind on you for 3 rounds. Tim Means will be prepared for this tactic and will likely have a strategy in place to beat it.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tim Means is significantly better than Alex Oliveira in every single aspect of MMA. Means will dominate this fight if he can keep the majority of the matchup standing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Alex Oliveira likes to wet blanket people and Tim Means gives up takedowns easily. There’s a slight chance that Oliveira could smother Means for 3 rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Tim Means to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3.5 Units
[3.5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 2.25 Moneyline = +125 Fractional = 5/4
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Tim Means has a 44% chance of winning this fight based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Tim Means has a 80% chance of winning this fight based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 3: Dominick Cruz to beat Cody Garbrandt
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Cody Garbrandt is a good fighter, but he doesn’t have have the skills, footwork, movement or technique that TJ Dillashaw has. In fact, his skill level is not even close to TJ’s. I have highlighted this point because TJ is in a different league than Cody in terms of skills and yet TJ struggled to stay composed and land anything significant on Dominick Cruz when they fought. TJ found it very difficult to stick to a gameplan and keep up with Cruz’s output and I feel that Garbrandt will fall into the same trap of walking Cruz down and mostly swinging at air.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Cody Garbrandt has a short reach for Bantamweight and wings his punches. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Dominick Cruz has more weapons. He does a great job of breaking his opponents down by mixing up his attacks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Garbrandt relies too much on his Boxing. This results in him spending most of his time walking his opponents down. This is an easy style for Cruz to beat because he can chip away from the outside and get out of range before Garbrandt has a chance to counter.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Cody Garbrandt is an emotional fighter and Cruz does a great job of frustrating his opponents with footwork and movement. Cruz also does a great job of sticking to a gameplan and not putting himself in any unnecessary danger. Cruz will not be sucked into a dogfight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Cruz does a great job of mixing up his attacks. You never know whether he’s going to shoot for a takedown or throw an overhand right.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Dominick Cruz is a very difficult opponent because you cannot work out his patterns. Cody Garbrandt is relatively inexperienced and will probably struggle to find his range against such an unorthodox opponent. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Cody Garbrandt hits very hard and Dominick Cruz does get hit a lot.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Dominick Cruz to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units
[3% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.48 Moneyline = -208 Fractional = 12/25
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Dominick Cruz has a 68% chance of winning this fight based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Dominick Cruz has a 70% chance of winning this fight based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 4: TJ Dillashaw to beat John Lineker
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]John Lineker is a tough opponent for many fighters in the UFC’s Bantamweight division, but he is an easy opponent for a guy like TJ Dillashaw because he is very one dimensional and very predictable. I expect TJ Dillashaw to win this fight easily by using his footwork and diverse range of attacks to chip away at Lineker over 3 rounds.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]TJ Dillashaw lands more strikes per minute than anyone else in the UFC. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]TJ Dillashaw fights at a relentless pace and never gets tired.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]TJ Dillashaw is significantly better than John Lineker in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]TJ Dillashaw has a much wider range of weapons to use against Lineker. He can dominate the standup exchanges and mix in takedowns.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]John Lineker is very slow and predictable. He telegraphs everything.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Dillashaw’s trainer, Duane Ludwig is a master at putting together strategies and gameplans and Lineker is a very one dimensional fighter who is easy to gameplan for. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Dillashaw does a great job of using leg kicks in his combinations. He can use these to chip away at Lineker as Lineker moves forward. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]John Lineker is very slow and he wings punches. Dillashaw is very good at using movement to evade strikes. Lineker will find it difficult to trap Dillashaw and land anything significant. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Lineker is aggressive. He may win a scrappy decision with forward pressure if we end up with bad judges.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]TJ Dillashaw to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]5 Units
[5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.53 Moneyline = -189 Fractional = 53/100
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that TJ Dillashaw has a 65% chance of winning this fight based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that TJ Dillashaw has a 90% chance of winning this fight based on our extensive research and analysis.


