We’re currently on a 7 month winning streak and I feel confident that we can extend that winning run by banking another profit from our bets for UFC 209.
UFC 209 looks like a decent event for betting with several good opportunities to make money. I will also be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC 209, so make sure you join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom where I’ll be posting free betting tips throughout the event.
Live Betting on the UFC is the easiest, fastest and safest way to make money. You only have to take a look at our results over the last year to see that there is serious money to be made in Live Betting.
I personally recommend betting on MMA at Ohmbet because they offer Live Betting on MMA and they also publish odds for MMA events much sooner than any other betting website.
Ohmbet currently have odds available for several upcoming fights including:
Alexander Gustafsson vs Glover Teixeira
Junior Dos Santos vs Stipe Miocic
Chris Weidman vs Gegard Mousasi
Ohmbet have also already published the full odds for the upcoming events UFC Fight Night Brazil – Belfort vs Gastelum and UFC Fight Night London – Anderson vs Manuwa.
You can also get a free 100% deposit bonus if you sign up for an account using this link. Just be sure to enter the promo code MMABT100 when signing up or you won’t qualify for the promotion. Ohmbet accepts players from Europe, Asia, Canada, Australia and New Zealand so there’s no reason why you can’t sign up now and start making money…
Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.
Betting Tip 1: Tony Ferguson to beat Khabib Nurmagomedov
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]George St Pierre once said that fighting is 90% mental and 10% physical and you only have to look at what Tony Ferguson has achieved to see that he was right. Afterall, Ferguson is nowhere near the most skilled fighter in the UFC’s lightweight division, but he has still managed to climb to the top of the most competitive weight class in the UFC on sheer toughness, heart and a never say die attitude. Ferguson cannot be broken and he never slows down no matter what you throw at him.
Khabib Nurmagomedov is an exceptionally good fighter, but it’s going to be tough for any man to keep up with the pace that Ferguson sets over a 25 minute fight. If this matchup was only 3 rounds, Khabib would be a great bet, but the extra 10 minutes in the cage for this Championship fight changes EVERYTHING.
I don’t know how this matchup is going to play out because there are so many variables, but what I do know is that the bookies are only giving Ferguson a 35% chance of winning based on their current odds, which is crazy when you take into consideration how competitive this fight is likely to be. At worst this fight is 50 / 50, which means we’re getting a good amount of value by betting on Ferguson to win.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson is extremely tough and extremely difficult to finish.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has a 6 inch reach advantage over Khabib Nurmagomedov.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]It’s very difficult to back Tony Ferguson up. This is demoralising for his opponent’s because they can’t do anything to create the time or space they need to catch their breath or get comfortable in the Octagon. Ferguson is constantly pushing the pace and staying in his opponent’s face and this is very difficult to deal with unless you have direct experience of fighting him. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has mastered the art of “Rockying” people… Rocky Balboa showed against Apollo Creed that heart, toughness and good cardio can go a long way and Tony Ferguson uses the same formula to break his opponent’s down and grind out wins. Most fighters slow down as the fight goes on, but Ferguson just seems to get stronger and stronger as the rounds tick by. This is extremely difficult for his opponent’s to deal with because it makes it very difficult for them to pace themselves. It’s also tough because Tony gets stronger, whilst they are getting weaker.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has incredible cardio. He never slows down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has a very unorthodox style of fighting. This makes it difficult for his opponent’s to work out what he is going to attack with. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has a wrestling background. His takedown defence isn’t great, but he does do a good job of exploding and scrambling back to his feet.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has high level Jiu Jitsu under Eddie Bravo. Khabib Nurmagomedov has never faced an opponent who will be as active and dangerous on the ground as Ferguson.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Khabib Nurmagomedov’s takedown entries now come in higher than they used to. This makes them less effective and easier to stuff because it gives his opponent’s more of a chance to secure underhooks. This change in Khabib’s style could be because his knee injuries have made it more difficult for him to get in low and deep on his opponent’s hips.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Khabib gives his opponent’s a lot of space to scramble back to their feet when he first lands a takedown. This is one of the reasons why Abel Trujillo and Rafael Dos Anjos were repeatedly able to get back to their feet. Ferguson does a great job of exploding out of takedown attempts, which means he should have a reasonable amount of success stuffing Khabib’s takedown attacks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Khabib Nurmagomedov is not a comfortable striker. Ferguson can win this fight if he can find a way to keep prolonged periods of this matchup standing. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Khabib Nurmagomedov does an excellent job of applying a ton of pressure, whilst controlling the distance. He is able to slide in and out of his opponent’s range, whilst constantly moving forward. This makes it difficult for his opponent’s to settle into a rhythm and get comfortable.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Khabib is excellent at chaining his takedown attempts together. He doesn’t waste too much energy going for one specific type of takedown. As soon as his opponent starts to stuff a takedown attempt, he’ll immediately switch to something else. This makes it really hard to defend against his takedowns because he is always coming at his opponent with new attacks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Khabib can land a massive amount of damage from top position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Ferguson has poor takedown defence and he sometimes gives up top position too easily whilst hunting for long shot submissions.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Tony Ferguson to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]2 Units
[2% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 2.70 Moneyline = +170 Fractional = 17/10
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Tony Ferguson has a 37% chance of beating Khabib Nurmagomedov based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Tony Ferguson has a 60% chance of beating Khabib Nurmagomedov based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 2: Darren Elkins vs Mirsad Bektic Over 1.5 Rounds
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Darren Elkins and Mirsad Bektic are two tough fighters who primarily like to grapple. Their fighting styles indicate that this fight has a good chance of going the distance. I believe this is one of those situations where the bookies have made a big mistake. I would personally cap the over on this fight at 2.5 rounds at odds of around 1.40 | -250. Instead, the bookies have capped the over at 1.5 rounds at odds of around 1.40 | -250. There’s a really good amount of value in this bet.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Darren Elkins has fought to a decision in 11 out of his last 13 fights.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both fighters are very tough and very durable. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both fighters are primarily wrestlers so I expect the majority of this fight to take place in the clinch or on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both fighters favour position over going for submissions. This makes a submission finish less likely. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Mirsad Bektic is significantly better than Darren Elkins in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Darren Elkins has very low level striking and poor striking defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Mirsad Bektic is a very high level fighter and dangerous from every position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Over 1.5 rounds
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3.5 Units
[3.5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.40 Moneyline = -250 Fractional = 2/5
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that there is a 71% chance that this fight lasts longer than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that this fight has an 80% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 3: Mirsad Bektic to beat Darren Elkins
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Mirsad Bektic reminds me of George St-Pierre because he’s great at everything and you never know what he is going to do next. When you think he’s going to strike he’ll land a reactive takedown and when you think he’s going to take you down, he’ll light you up with a lightning fast combo.
I barely give Darren Elkins any chance of winning this fight. Bektic should cruise to an easy win. The only way I see Bektic losing is if something freaky happens like a DQ, Doctor stoppage or injury.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic is significantly better than Darren Elkins in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic trains at American Top Team.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic is undefeated at 11-0. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic is an extremely strong wrestler. He has excellent reactive takedowns, strong top control and solid submission grappling skills. He also lands significant damage with ground and pound from top position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic never makes mistakes on the ground. He always favours positional control over going for submissions. He rarely gives his opponents an opportunity to improve their position on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Darren Elkins has very low level striking. Bektic has fast hands, power in his strikes and good technical Boxing. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic fights at a high pace. He doesn’t give his opponents a second to breathe. This makes it difficult for them to get comfortable and settle into a rhythm.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mirsad Bektic has excellent cardio. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Darren Elkins is very tough. He has a grinding style of fighting. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Darren Elkins has excellent cardio. He never slows down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Mirsad Bektic to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]5 Units
[5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.20 Moneyline = -500 Fractional = 1/5
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Mirsad Bektic has an 83% chance of beating Darren Elkins based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Mirsad Bektic has a 90% chance of beating Darren Elkins based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 4: Albert Morales to beat Andre Soukhamthath
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Albert Morales has had a tough start to his UFC career with his debut fight coming on less than 1 month’s notice against Alejandro Perez. He was then thrown to the Wolves in his second fight when he was forced to travel to Brazil to take on Thomas Almeida in Almeida’s home town.
These two matchups were a tough test, but Morales showed flashes of brilliance in both matchups that should see him comfortably beat a fighter like Andre Soukhamthath.
Morales is only 25 years old and he’s already reasonably good at everything. Andre Soukhamthath is a decent fighter, but not particularly skilled or particularly dangerous in any area. I believe Morales will win this fight by using his aggressive fighting style to overwhelm Soukhamthath for three rounds.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Albert Morales is very aggressive. He does a great job of taking the centre of the Octagon and applying constant pressure to his opponent.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Albert Morales lands a high volume of strikes per round. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Albert Morales fights at a high pace. It will be difficult for Soukhamthath to keep up with him over 3 rounds in his UFC debut.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Albert Morales is very tough and has a great chin. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath fights heavy on his lead leg and Morales does a great job of chopping his opponent’s down with leg kicks. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath has never fought a fighter as aggressive as Morales.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]This is Andre Soukhamthath’s first fight in the UFC.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath has very poor takedown defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath lacks power in his hands.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath spends too long defending takedowns against the cage. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath has a low level ground game.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Andre Soukhamthath trains at the Blackzilians. An MMA camp that is currently in turmoil.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Albert Morales is very aggressive. This means that he sometimes gets drawn into wreckless exchanges.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Albert Morales gassed out in the 3rd round of his UFC debut against Alejandro Perez. I am hoping that this was because he suffered an adrenaline dump fighting in the UFC for the first time ever.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Albert Morales to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]2 Units
[2% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.80 Moneyline = -125 Fractional = 4/5
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Albert Morales has a 56% chance of beating Andre Soukhamthath based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Albert Morales has a 65% chance of beating Andre Soukhamthath based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 5: Stephen Thompson to beat Tyron Woodley
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Fighters who get knocked down in the first round and survive, go on to win around 65% of the time. This happens because the fighter that gets knocked down gains a lot of confidence from the fact that they took their opponent’s best shots and survived. The fighter who scored the knockdown tends to fade because they threw everything they had at their opponent and their best wasn’t enough to get the job done. This has a big negative impact on their confidence.
When Stephen Thompson fought Tyron Woodley back in November, he had his nose broken, ate two of Woodley’s bombs, got knocked down, got taken down and got caught in a tight guillotine and STILL managed to win 3 out of 5 rounds. Thompson will take a lot of strength from this because he has been able to come through everything that Woodley has thrown at him.
Woodley on the other hand will be feeling insecure going into this fight knowing that he gave everything in the first matchup and still couldn’t get the job done.
In the aftermath of the first fight between Thompson and Woodley, everyone was calling for a rematch, whilst Woodley was seeking matchups against almost everyone apart from Thompson. He was calling out Conor McGregor, George St-Pierre and even entertained the idea of fighting Michael Bisping. To me this was a clear sign that he didn’t want to fight Thompson again. This could be a sign that Woodley is insecure over this matchup and lacking in confidence…
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson has super high level striking, which is backed up by an impressive undefeated Pro Kickboxing record of 57-0.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson has not been finished in over 70 Pro Kickboxing and MMA fights.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson is extremely tough and has great cardio.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson has extremely good takedown defence which is backed up by the fact that he has defended 78% of all takedowns across 10 fights in the UFC. This is very impressive when you take into consideration the fact that he has fought strong wrestlers such as Johny Hendricks, Rory MacDonald and Tyron Woodley. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson fights with his hands low. This enables him to secure underhooks early when his opponent’s shoot in for takedowns. This makes it extremely difficult for Thompson’s opponent’s to take him down. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson is a significantly better striker than Tyron Woodley.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tyron Woodley fights with his back tight to the cage. This means that he can only avoid strikes by moving sideways. He cannot move backwards. This leaves him more susceptible to getting knocked out. Thompson has spoken in interviews about it taking him a while to find his range against Woodley, but he now believes he’ll be able to open up much sooner than he did in their first fight. If this happens I believe he’ll win by KO.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stephen Thompson has survived Woodley’s best shots. This will give him a lot of confidence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Tyron Woodley has KO power in his hands. He also has excellent speed and timing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Tyron Woodley has excellent reactive takedowns.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Tyron Woodley is very strong from top position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Stephen Thompson to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]2 Units
[2% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.80 Moneyline = -125 Fractional = 4/5
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Stephen Thompson has a 56% chance of beating Tyron Woodley based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Stephen Thompson has a 65% chance of beating Tyron Woodley based on our extensive research and analysis.
