Most people that bet on UFC 210 will be doing their best to predict the outcome of the fights between Anthony Johnson and Daniel Cormier and Chris Weidman vs Gegard Mousasi, but I’ve studied both those fights in great detail this week and I still don’t have any idea who is going to win. As a result, I’m going to pass on both those fights and focus more on the rest of the card where their appears to be several good opportunities to make money.
I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC 210. Live Betting is the easiest, fastest and safest way to make money. You only have to take a look at our results over the last year to see that there is serious money to be made in Live Betting. I will be posting my live betting tips for free in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC 210.
The next few months look amazing for betting on MMA, with several good opportunities for us to make money. Ohmbet have already started to release the odds for many of the big upcoming fights including:
Alexander Gustafsson vs Glover Teixeira
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Jessica Andrade
Junior Dos Santos vs Stipe Miocic
Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
You can get a free 100% deposit bonus if you sign up for an account with Ohmbet using this link. Just be sure to enter the promo code MMABT100 when you sign up or you won’t qualify for the promotion. Ohmbet accepts players from Europe, Asia, Canada, Australia and New Zealand so there’s no reason why you can’t sign up now and start making money…
Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.
Betting Tip 1: Kamaru Usman to beat Sean Strickland
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Sean Strickland has a deceptively good MMA record of 18-1, which has helped us get a little more value in the odds on Kamaru Usman than I think we should be getting. Usman’s current odds of around 1.30 | -333 don’t seem that attractive, but I actually think they offer us a great return because I expect Usman to dominate this fight. I was surprised by the odds on Usman, I expected him to be a much bigger favourite.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman is very aggressive. He does a great job of taking the centre of the Octagon and holding it. It’s extremely difficult to back him up.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman fights at a relentless pace and never slows down. He does a great job of breaking his opponent’s with a smothering, high pressure style of fighting.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman has super human cardio. He fights at a high pace and never seems to get tired.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman has an excellent poker face. He does a great job of disguising when he’s hurt by instantly firing back if his opponent lands a good shot.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman punishes his opponent’s for everything that they do to him. If he gets hit, he fires back with a 3 punch combo. If he gets kicked, he’ll shoot in on them and try to take them down. If they turn up the pressure on him, he’ll flip it back on them and fight twice as hard. This makes it difficult for his opponent’s to settle into a rhythm and it also makes them second guess their attacks because they know he’s coming back at them twice as hard if they land anything significant. This style of fighting breaks people and it is also extremely effective at scoring points on the judges scorecards because Usman’s opponent’s never pull away from him. He always has the momentum on his side.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sean Strickland is a very passive fighter. If you get aggressive with him, he tends to go into a defensive shell.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sean Strickland is inconsistent and flakey. His Pro MMA record of 18-1 is very deceiving.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sean Strickland has the quit in him and can be broken.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sean Strickland leaves his chin up high and exposed when exiting striking exchanges.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sean Strickland does not react well to pressure.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman is an extremely strong wrestler.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kamaru Usman makes significant improvements from fight to fight. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Kamaru Usman trained at the Blackzilians and Blackzilians fighters have not looked good since the camp broke up.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Kamaru Usman has a wreckless style of fighting.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Kamaru Usman has poor striking defence. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Kamaru Usman to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]5 Units
[5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.31 Moneyline = -323 Fractional = 31/100
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Kamaru Usman has a 76% chance of beating Sean Strickland based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Kamaru Usman has a 90% chance of beating Sean Strickland based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 2: Anthony Johnson to beat Daniel Cormier
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]The current set of USADA drug testing and weight cutting rules were introduced into the UFC in January 2016. Since then, we’ve seen many fighters move up in weight class to avoid a tough weight cut. We’ve also seen countless fighters suffer a tough weight cut and either pull out of a fight or go on to underperform in their matchup. Gone are the days when a fighter could kill themselves to make weight and then stick an IV in their arm and be back to full strength within a matter of hours.
At Friday’s early weigh-in Daniel Cormier looked absolutely terrible. His stomach was bloated, his face was drawn out and he’d clearly had a tough weight cut. I can’t think of a single fighter since USADA came into effect who looked that bad at a weigh in and went on to win. Take a look at the video below to see Cormier’s weigh in for yourself:
If Anthony Johnson and Daniel Cormier both showed up and fought to their full potential, I’d personally cap this fight at a probability of 50 / 50, but there are several X Factors at play in this matchup which makes me lean towards Johnson winning.
The first factor is of course Cormier’s tough weight cut. In contrast, Johnson looked excellent on the scales and it was visibly clear who was the healthier fighter.
The second factor is age. Daniel Cormier is now 38 years old. He has had almost 20 MMA fights and he has spent thousands of hours training in the gym and competing in high level wrestling contests at State, NCAA and Olympic level. There’s only so much a human body can take before it starts to break. Fighters tend to significantly decline from year to year after they reach the age of 33, which means that Cormier is well past his prime. Johnson and Cormier’s first fight was almost 2 years ago and a lot can change in that time when you’re in the tail end of your career.
The third factor is Cormier’s injuries. Cormier has suffered a lot of injuries and surgeries in recent years. Unlike in the pre USADA era, fighters can no longer use HGH to aid their recovery and many supplements are also banned. This is another factor which strongly indicates that Cormier won’t be the same guy that fought Rumble two years ago.
Of course it’s possible that Cormier could show up and look just as good as he did back in 2015, but over the last 12 months we have learned that older fighters and fighters who have had tough weight cuts tend to badly struggle on fight night. At odds of around 1.80 | -125, I think Anthony Johnson is a good bet based on all the information we have available.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Daniel Cormier had a tough weight cut.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Daniel Cormier is now in the tail end of his career at 38 years old.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Anthony Johnson is 5 years younger than Daniel Cormier. The younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is a 5 year age gap in a fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Anthony Johnson has a big size advantage over Daniel Cormier. He also has a 6 inch reach advantage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Daniel Cormier has not been able to train with Luke Rockhold or Cain Velasquez for this fight. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Daniel Cormier has suffered injuries and had surgeries since he last fought Anthony Johnson.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Daniel Cormier will have been unable to use HGH and supplements to aid his recovery from injuries since the new USADA drug testing came into effect.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Anthony Johnson came close to KOing Daniel Cormier several times in their first fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Anthony Johnson has looked incredible since he last fought Daniel Cormier.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Anthony Johnson has the power to win this fight with 1 clean strike landing at any time.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Anthony Johnson has shown excellent takedown defence in recent years. He made a few mistakes in their first fight which gave Cormier opportunities to take him down. He should have been able to easily rectify these mistakes. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Daniel Cormier is extremely tough and has historically displayed amazing cardio.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Daniel Cormier has never been knocked out.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anthony Johnson used to train at the Blackzilians. Blackzilians fighters have not looked good since the camp broke up. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anthony Johnson can be broken.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anthony Johnson tends to gas out if you make him work hard. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Daniel Cormier has super high level wrestling. He chains his takedown attempts together better than almost anyone else in the UFC.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Anthony Johnson to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units
[3% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.80 Moneyline = -125 Fractional = 4/5
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Anthony Johnson has a 56% chance of beating Daniel Cormier based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Anthony Johnson has a 65% chance of beating Daniel Cormier based on our extensive research and analysis.
I watched a lot of footage on this fight Usman/Strickland before the odds were released but was disappointed with the odds i was hoped we would gt 1.50 on Usman but agree with everything said.