UFC 223 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

The recent three-week break in the UFC calendar has been amazing. During this downtime, I used some of the money we have recently made from betting to buy a new car. I decided to go for the BMW E92 M3. It is, quite honestly a masterpiece. If ever you are thinking of buying a car you should give one a test drive. It will sell itself. This is the one I ended up buying:

This is a picture of my son. As you can see, he is struggling to hold back how much he wants me to buy it!!!

And this is me looking very stressed because I really want to buy the car, but my head is telling me that there are much smarter ways to spend £20,000!!!

The problem with being a professional gambler and having a mindset that is always focused on making smart financial decisions is that it can get in the way of you having fun. I am not a wealthy man, but I do earn a very generous amount of money from betting, and I have been able to afford to buy a new car for a long time. I have in the past decided not to buy a new car because there are always “smarter” things that I could spend money on. It would have been much smarter for me to pay off some money on the mortgage, buy crypto or pump more money into stocks and shares. But after giving this a lot of thought, I decided that life is for living! We have crushed it in betting for the last 4 months, so I decided to reward myself by buying a new car. I’ve also booked a trip to Rome for my family next week. I am going to hopefully vlog this trip and post it on my new Youtube channel; Diary of a Pro Gambler.

So why am I sharing this with you?

Many of us right now are making a lot of money from betting. Life changing amounts of money. In this environment, it is very easy to get comfortable and complacent. I have a goal this year that my wife will be able to quit her job. My long-term goal is to set up a research facility where I can run private research projects to learn more about Rheumatoid Arthritis and eventually develop a treatment programme for people suffering from the disease.

I am not going to achieve either of those goals unless I am very motivated. I need to be earning a lot more than I am now before my wife can quit her job and I need to be making a boatload of money every month before my dreams of setting up a privately funded research facility can become a reality.

During every long break in the UFC calendar, I get valuable spare time to reflect on where I am at right now, where I want to be in the future and the steps I need to take to get there. I use this time to carry out essential maintenance and improvements on the website, and I also go back through my betting results to try and identify ways in which I can improve and become more profitable.

Before buying my new car, I was sweating that it was a big, indulgent purchase and that I should be spending my money on something “smarter” instead. But, as I drove back from Hampshire, with the V8 engine roaring, I was incredibly motivated to “earn” the right to drive a car like that by busting my ass and making more money. I was determined to find fresh betting accounts to use, I was determined to improve prefight betting results, and I was determined to continue crushing it in Live Betting.

I had a rejuvenated level of drive that I had not experienced before because deep down I didn’t feel like I deserved to own a car as great as the M3. I still had the underdog mentality. I still had the mindset of a guy who struggled to pay rent and buy groceries just 7 – 8 years ago.

I have come a long way since then, but my brain still works in the same way. It’s hard to spend 20 grand on a car when less than ten years ago there were some weeks when I had to choose between paying the gas or the electricity bill.

What I have learned over the last few years is that setting goals can be an incredibly powerful motivator. It has helped me to get to where I am now. However, in the last few weeks, I also learned that rewarding yourself can also be a very powerful motivator. I’ve never really rewarded myself in the past, so this was something pretty incredible to learn.

Have you rewarded yourself lately? Are you still hungry to learn? Are you still hungry to earn more? If you’re not hungry, what could you do to force yourself into feeling hungry again? For me, it was wiping a huge chunk off my bank balance buying a car, but for you, it might be something different? Maybe it’s time you quit your job because it’s holding you back? Maybe it’s time you took some money to set up the business that you’ve already dreamt of owning. What can you do right now to make you feel more motivated than ever before?

Ask yourself right now where you want to be in 5 years and how you can set goals today that can help you get to where you want to be. Can you be more active in sourcing additional betting accounts? Could you be more disciplined in betting and stop dumping off profits betting other sports? Could you make more money if you stopped placing your own bets on UFC and stuck to the tips I provide? Could you be more active at using compound interest to grow your bankroll?

How can you use the money you make from betting to secure your future? Can you think of a business to set up? Some investments to make? Are there charitable causes you would like to be more active in helping?

What I am trying to say is that there is no point in us making significant amounts of money unless we use it as a tool to make a real difference to our lives and the lives of others.

Start thinking about ways that you can use the money we make from betting to make significant changes to your life. Set goals to help you get there. Reward yourself with something crazy to ignite your determination to stay disciplined and make good decisions. Plan for the future…

I hope you found this post useful. I am confident that we will continue to crush it. But now I am also focused on finding sustainable ways that will enable us to keep making significant amounts of money, even if the bookies pull the plug on us one day.

I’ve found this three week period extremely useful to reflect on where we are at right now. Take some time this week to do the same and use some of the money we’ve earned to start planning for the future. 2018 is going to be huge for us. Let’s continue to crush it, and let’s try to take things to the next level by setting big goals that will help us achieve big things. It’s not all about Lambo’s and Las Vegas. Let’s secure our future, forever. This opportunity to take big money from the bookies may not be around forever, so let’s maximize this opportunity while we still can!

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Max Holloway Betting Tip and Prediction

When fighters suffer devastating, prolonged beatings we often find that they are never the same again.

Cub Swanson was never the same after Frankie Edgar took him down and repeatedly smashed him for an entire 25 minutes.

Junior Dos Santos was never the same after Cain Velasquez bullied him against the cage for almost 25 minutes.

Jake Ellenberger was never the same after his wars with Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann.

I could go on and on. There are countless examples of how fighters have permanently declined after enduring a brutal beating.

Max Holloway is a talented young fighter with the potential to become a huge star. He has an entire nation behind him in Hawaii, and there’s no one at 145 who has the skills to hurt him. He has all the attributes required to become a dominant champion, and even if he does suffer some losses along the way, those losses are unlikely to be so devastating that he could not bounce back from them.

The UFC should be doing everything in their power to nurture his career and help him achieve his potential. They did this with Conor McGregor, and it paid off bigtime. If you go back and look through Conor’s career, you will see that the UFC did a great job of protecting him for many years. It was always clear that his takedown defense and ground game was lacking and because of this, the UFC’s matchmakers shielded him from fighting grapplers. The only time he ever fought a wrestler was when he fought Chad Mendes. Chad took the fight on just six days notice and fought with a broken foot and yet Conor still struggled badly.

The UFC should be protecting Holloway in the same way that they protected Conor. Instead, at UFC 223 on Saturday night, they are throwing him to the Wolves by matching him up with the worst stylistic opponent imaginable.

One of Max Holloway’s biggest strengths is that he is incredibly tough, but sometimes that can work against you…

Joe Lauzon is known for being an exciting fighter who has won more post-fight bonuses than almost anyone else in the history of the UFC. But now he is just 32 years old, and he looks totally shot. He is a shadow of himself. All those wars have caught up with him and he just isn’t the same guy.

If you toss young fighters like Max Holloway into matchups against guys like Khabib Nurmagomedov where he is almost guaranteed to take a significant beating, he is going to end up like Joe Lauzon. Holloway is just 26 years old, and he should not be fighting guys like Khabib. This matchup is totally pointless. Khabib fights at 155. Max fights at 145. They should not be fighting. I understand that Max wants to take this fight, but sometimes you have to save fighters from themselves. This is irresponsible matchmaking by the UFC.

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the best grappler I have ever seen in the UFC. He is unbearable for opponents. He always favors position over submission, and this makes it almost impossible for his opponent to improve their position. There is no window of opportunity to create a scramble because he ties up your legs, ties up your arms, establishes half guard or side control where you can’t hurt him and he goes to work. He is a total nightmare.

Max Holloway is a lean 26-year-old striker who competes in the Featherweight division. He hasn’t fought a strong grappler since losing a split decision to Dennis Bermudez back in 2013. He’s also taking this fight against Khabib on just 6 days notice after suffering an ankle injury that kept him out of his title fight against Frankie Edgar just 6 weeks ago.

Today Holloway’s nutritionist, George Lockhart came out and said that this would be a brutal weight cut for Holloway because he hasn’t been training due to his injury:

Max Holloway’s weight cut will be the biggest he has ever done

If Holloway was taking this fight against Khabib on a full camp, where he was fully prepared, I still think Khabib would ragdoll and dominate him. The fact that Holloway is taking this fight on just six day’s notice and hasn’t been doing any training due to his injury makes me feel like he virtually has no chance of beating Khabib.

To stand a chance against a guy like Khabib, you have to be able to hurt him and gain some respect. The risk of a flash KO has to be present. We saw this in Khabib’s fight against Michael Johnson. Unfortunately, Max Holloway does not have one punch KO power. When he stops his opponent’s, he does it by breaking them down with volume. Khabib can afford to eat a shot from Max to close the distance, and this makes this a very easy matchup for Khabib. Max simply does not have the power to hurt him.

It is possible that Max Holloway may have world-class takedown defense. He could turn Khabib into a panic wrestler and find a way to win. This is not impossible. It could happen. But based on everything I know about MMA I have to say that it is highly improbable. The odds are seriously stacked against Max here. It’s hard for me to see a realistic scenario in which a lean, 145-pound fighter taking a fight on 6 day’s notice could develop the kind of takedown defense required in a small gym in Hawaii to shut down the takedowns of the strongest grappler in the UFC.

Khabib should dominate this fight. I just hope that Max doesn’t take too much damage because he is tough and sometimes being tough is not good when you are fighting a guy like Khabib.

Reasons for betting on Khabib Nurmagomedov

Kyle Bochniak vs Zabit Magomedsharipov Betting Tip and Prediction

Kyle Bochniak vs. Zabit Magomedsharipov is a squash match of epic proportions. Scott Coker would be proud of this one.

From a stylistic point of view, this is a terrible matchup for Bochniak because he doesn’t have the power to back Zabit up or the takedown defense to keep the fight standing. On the ground, he will drown in deep waters, and if the fight stays standing, he’ll be vulnerable to Zabit’s unorthodox and deadly attacks.

There’s is virtually no way that Bochniak can win this fight unless something crazy happens. If you want to see what I am talking about for yourself, go and watch Bochniak’s recent fight against Jeremy Kennedy:

Kyle Bochniak vs Jeremy Kennedy

Then go and watch any of Zabit’s fights in the UFC:

Zabit Magomedsharipov’s fights on UFC Fight Pass

As you can see, Magomedsharipov is quite honestly spectacular and he demonstrates all the skills required to be a future Champion. It’s chilling to think that once Max Holloway has got through one scary Dagestani on Saturday night in Khabib Nurmagomedov, there is another scary Dagestani in Zabit Magomedsharipov who is rapidly rising up through the Featherweight rankings.

Based on their past performances Bochniak does not have the skill to outstrike Zabit, he does not have the power to hurt him standing, he does not have the takedown defense to keep the fight standing, and he does not have the grappling credentials to cause Zabit a problem on the ground. To put it mildly; Bochniak is screwed. There is nowhere that he can take this fight where he will have an advantage. He also lacks the power to score a flash knockout and he does not have the technical ability on the ground to pull off a random submission.

The only way that Zabit Magomedsharipov could lose this fight is if something crazy happened like a bad weight cut, an injury or a disqualification. This is MMA, and all of those things are possible, but they are very unlikely to occur. Zabit Magomedsharipov to beat Kyle Bochniak is as close to free money as we are ever going to get.

Reasons for betting on Zabit Magomedsharipov

Al Iaquinta vs Khabib Nurmagomedov Betting Tip and Prediction

When Max Holloway pulled out of his fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov, he also destroyed our 5 unit parlay accumulator bet on Khabib Nurmagomedov and Zabit Magomedsharipov to win. We now have to roll with a 5 unit straight bet on Magomedsharipov at odds of just 1.15 | -588 | 3/20, which is extremely frustrating because I would never have bet 5 units straight on him at these odds. If you haven’t locked in your bet yet, I would pass on our first betting tip for UFC 223 completely.

With all the chaos surrounding UFC 223, I honestly did not expect to have any pre-fight betting tips for this weekend. Then, while scanning through the Prop Bets this afternoon, there was one bet that jumped out at me. At first, I thought it must have been a mistake, but then I noticed that it was listed on almost all betting websites…

I am talking about the over on the fight between Al Iaquinta vs Khabib Nurmagomedov being set at 2.5 rounds. Some bookies even have over 1.5 rounds available!!! This is a huge mistake!

If your betting website has the over 1.5 rounds available, I recommend betting that for 4 units. Win or lose that is an excellent bet! The odds on the over 1.5 rounds should be capped much closer to 1.36 | -278 | 9/25. Instead, the odds on the over 1.5 rounds is currently set at 2.10 | +110 | 11/10 at Bet365.

If your betting website DOES NOT offer over 1.5 rounds, betting the fight to go over 2.5 rounds is still an excellent bet.

The over 2.5 rounds is going to have to be my official betting tip because not all betting websites are offering the over 1.5 rounds; however, I do firmly believe that the over 1.5 rounds is a much better bet. To summarise:

If your betting website is offering the over 1.5 rounds line… Bet that for 4 units.

If your betting website DOES NOT have over 1.5 rounds available, bet over 2.5 rounds for 3 units instead.

My official tip is Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Al Iaquinta Over 2.5 rounds, simply because not all betting websites will offer Over 1.5 rounds at decent liquidity.

With UFC 223 starting in less than 2 hours, I don’t want to spend too much time writing a super detailed breakdown of the reasons why this is a great bet. Instead, I’ve stuck to a simple bullet point format that you can read below.

If you have any questions about this bet, please do not hesitate to contact me in the Chat Room or by < a href="https://mmabettingtips.com/user/?profiletab=messages">Private Message.

Reasons for betting on the over 2.5 rounds