UFC Fight Night 105 is a big event for us because we’re currently on a 9 event winning streak. This means that we will have made a profit on 10 consecutive events if we can bank another win from our betting tips for UFC Fight Night 105.
This is not a good event for betting, but I am still determined to grind out another profit so that we can extend our winning run to 10 consecutive events. My record for the most consecutive winning events currently stands at 12, so this is a great opportunity for us to break that record.
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Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.
Betting Tip 1: Travis Browne to beat Derrick Lewis
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]4 years ago I tipped Travis Browne to be the next big thing in the Heavyweight division. I felt that he had all the tools to become the UFC Heavyweight Champion and I felt certain that he would only get better whilst training at Jackson’s MMA.
Many people will roll their eyes at the suggestion that Browne could ever have been a top contender, but hindsight is a wonderful thing and back in 2013 Travis Browne was a wrecking machine in the Heavyweight division. Browne was in many ways the first wave of a new breed of Heavyweight who had good cardio, a good chin and well rounded skills in all areas. The majority of Heavyweight’s have historically had bad cardio or one dimensional skill sets, but Browne was a refreshing break from the sloppy big guys who either wanted to lay and pray for 3 rounds or KO you dead with one punch.
Travis Browne’s career in the UFC started strong going 7-1-1 in his first 9 fights. He also managed to pick up notable wins over Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett along the way. Despite this early success, Travis is now 2-4 in his last 6 UFC fights and he seems to be a fighter lacking in confidence and direction.
This is a risky bet because Travis Browne seems to have lost the aggression and will to win that helped him achieve so much success early in his career. In situations like this, I’d normally recommend passing on a bet, but I can’t ignore the fact that there is a huge skill gap between Travis Browne and Derrick Lewis. If you go and watch any of their recent fights you will see that Browne is significantly better than Lewis in every single aspect of MMA.
I’m not sure if Browne is going to show up and fight to his full potential against Lewis, but I do know that he is taking positive steps to get his career back on track after moving to Vegas to train full time with Ricky Lundell and Ray Sefo. I also know that he possesses the chin, cardio, toughness and skills to dominate Derrick Lewis.
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Derrick Lewis has some of the worst takedown defence in the UFC’s Heavyweight division. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Derrick Lewis has an extremely low level ground game. It’s not even White Belt level BJJ.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Travis Browne has strong wrestling and excellent takedown defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Travis Browne is very strong when he gains top position on the ground. His 6 ft 7 inch frame also enables him to generate a tremendous amount of power with ground and pound.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Derrick Lewis likes to wear on his opponents by grinding on them against the cage. This is a flawed fighting style because he doesn’t have the cardio required to sustain this grind for 25 minutes. Travis Browne is strong in the clinch and delivers a good amount of damage from this position. He also has significantly better cardio than Lewis. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Travis Browne has switched camps and is now training fulltime in Las Vegas with Ricky Lundell and Ray Sefo. He is no longer training at Glendale Fighting Club and Edmund Tarverdyan will not be in his corner at UFC Fight Night 105.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Travis Browne does a great job of countering his opponents with a powerful jab. Derrick Lewis has poor striking defence and wrecklessly rushes into his opponent’s range. Browne should be able to time this and pick Lewis off as Lewis tries to close the distance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Travis Browne is very tough and has great cardio for a Heavyweight. He also has a decent chin.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Travis Travis Browne is significantly better than Derrick Lewis in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Derrick Lewis has devastating knockout power.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Derrick Lewis has a killer instinct and winning mentality.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Derrick Lewis is very tough.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Travis Browne seems to be a fighter lacking in confidence. He needs to find himself again.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Travis Browne to win
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]2 Units
[2% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 2.00 Moneyline = +100 Fractional = 1/1
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that Travis Browne has a 50% chance of beating Derrick Lewis based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that Travis Browne has a 65% chance of beating Derrick Lewis based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 2: Cezar Ferreira vs Elias Theodorou: Over 1.5 rounds
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Cezar Ferreira and Elias Theodorou both like to counter strike and they both like to grapple. This means that neither guy initiates fight ending situations very often. When I initially saw this matchup I instinctively felt that it would go the distance, so I find it crazy that the over is set at 1.5 rounds instead of the standard 2.5 rounds. I expect this fight to go the distance which means that this bet should win easily…
Reasons for placing this bet...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both fighters like to counter strike, which makes a KO less likely.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Neither fighter possesses 1 punch KO power. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Neither fighter aggressively pursues the finish.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both fighters like to wrestle. They also favour position over going for submissions. This makes a submission finish less likely. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]3 of Theodorou’s last 4 fights have gone the distance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both fighters are very defensive. Neither of them like to take risks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anything can happen in MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Cezar Ferreira is a little chinny. This shouldn’t be an issue because Elias Theodorou does not have KO power.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Over 1.5 rounds
Stake
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3.5 Units
[3.5% of your bankroll]
Odds
[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.42 Moneyline = -238 Fractional = 21/50
Implied Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]The bookies believe that there is a 70% chance that this fight goes the distance based on their current odds.
Our Probability
[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]We believe that this fight has an 80% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on our extensive research and analysis.
