UFC Fight Night 119 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 119 is one of those cards that is great for betting, but it also requires us to take some calculated gambles because there aren’t any “safe bets” on this event. I see a ton of value throughout the whole card, but to take advantage of this, we are going to have to roll the dice a little more than we usually do.

Remember that there is no way to be sure about what will happen in an MMA fight because every living organism on earth has a survival instinct hard-wired into our DNA. We will fight to the death to preserve our survival. When you throw two animals into a cage with this deep-rooted survival instinct, anything can, and it usually does happen. That’s why we love MMA…

We might crash and burn on this event. It’s possible. But it’s equally plausible that we could make a huge profit. The most likely outcome is that we will end up somewhere in the middle.

I feel great about my bets for this event. In fact, each of them is an excellent bet based on my research, but I am also not naive enough to ignore the fact that all these bets could lose.

Whether you tail my bets on this event or not will depend on your risk tolerance and pain threshold. If you are in this for the long haul and you are prepared to stick with me through the good times and the bad, through the upswings and the downswings, then I strongly urge you to tail these bets. These are the events where we make our big gains. Unfortunately, they can also be the events where we make our big losses.

If you see betting as a way to make a quick buck, then you should probably pass on these bets. If you feel a need to make money regularly and get frustrated by losses, then you should also pass on these bets. But if you see betting more as a long-term investment and you understand the importance of taking calculated gambles for long-term success then this is the time where you should pull the trigger.

A critical part of successful investing is knowing when to take calculated risks and having the mental strength not to let losses affect you when the calculated risks don’t work out in your favor.

We will put our money in some very strong positions at UFC Fight Night 119, but that doesn’t automatically mean we’ll make a profit. When you learn to understand this powerful concept, you will take a huge step towards becoming a profitable long-term bettor and investor.

I hope you decide to come with me on this journey. Good luck.

Pedro Munhoz vs Rob Font Betting Tip and Prediction

This is one of those situations where I believe the bookies have capped the odds after taking a quick glance at Wikipedia, without taking the time to consider where this line should be set.

The odds on the fight between Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font to last longer than 2.5 rounds is currently set at 1.77 | -130 | 77/100, which is reasonable when you take into account the number of times their matchups have ended inside the distance.

It’s not until you delve deeper into how both these guys matchup that you will start to see why the most likely outcome is that this fight will go the distance.

It cannot be denied that the majority of Font and Munhoz’s fights have ended inside the distance, but Font and Munhoz have been the ones doing the finishing. This is a profound discovery because neither guy has ever been finished in a combined total of 32 pro fights, despite the fact that they rarely go to a decision.

It’s also worth noting that the only times they have gone the distance is when they have faced high-level competition. For example… Munhoz has gone the distance with guys like Raphael Assuncao and Jimmie Rivera, while Font has gone the distance with John Lineker.

When you match these guys up skill for skill, there are also clues that suggest this fight is likely to go the distance. Munhoz is tough and relentless, always moving forward aiming to break his opponent, but he lacks KO power, and most of his finishes come by submission on the ground.

Font, on the other hand, is very technical and sound defensively, but he’s not great at landing significant strikes while moving backward and Munhoz will almost certainly force him to fight on the backfoot.

This dynamic suggests that this fight will most likely go the distance. What I’m trying to say is… Font is too good defensively to get finished, and Munhoz is too tough to get finished. Therefore at the current odds, I believe the over is a great value bet. Could someone get caught with a flash KO or submission? Absolutely. Munhoz and Font are two great fighters, but for me, the risk is definitely worth the reward because the odds are decent on a fight that I see going the distance the majority of the time.

Reasons for betting on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs Max Griffin Betting Tip and Prediction

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos is a throwback Brazilian fighter who is tough, good everywhere and has the cardio to fight at a high pace for 15 minutes. There was a time when all Brazilians ticked these boxes, but they have become rare since USADA was introduced into the UFC.

We don’t know a lot about Max Griffin yet because he has only fought twice in the UFC and one of those fights ended very quickly, but from what I’ve seen Dos Santos should be able to beat him quite convincingly. To familiarise yourself with the threats that Griffin brings to the table I recommend watching his fight from around two years ago against Randall Wallace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cn_P3Q5ItlA

Two years is a long time in MMA and it’s possible that Griffin might have improved a lot since then, but in his recent performance against Colby Covington he showed flashes of the same weaknesses that we can observe in his fight against Wallace. These weaknesses make this a good matchup for Dos Santos and it also indicates that Griffin has not yet improved to the point where he’ll be able to win this fight.

If you watch Griffin’s fights against Wallace and Covington, you’ll see that he has some of the worst takedown defense in the division. Dos Santos is primarily a striker, but he has shown a willingness to grapple in each of his UFC fights, usually shooting for a takedown on more than one occasion in each matchup. Dos Santos is not a strong wrestler, but you don’t need to be to hit a takedown on Griffin because his defensive wrestling is so bad. He’s like a 2017 version of Art Jimmerson.

Dos Santos will also have a significant edge in the striking because of a few subtle weaknesses in Griffin’s technique that Dos Santos will be able to exploit. The first weakness is that Griffin enters and exits striking exchanges with his chin up high and exposed. When he gets into an exchange, he is frozen like a Rabbit caught in the headlights. Dos Santos has bad striking defense too, but he is much more comfortable, durable and technical in the exchanges. Freezing like a scared rabbit in exchanges makes you extremely prone to knockouts and even though Griffin has not suffered many KO losses thus far in his career, he will start to get knocked out regularly if he does not tighten up this flaw in his overall skillset.

The second weakness that Griffin demonstrates is a cardinal sin in MMA and something that you don’t usually see at UFC level. In fact, out of all the fighters in the top 15 of the Welterweight division, Neil Magny is the only fighter I can think of who shares this weakness. The weakness I am talking about is Griffin’s tendency to show pain. If he gets hit or hurt, you’ll see him wince and react to the strike. This is suicide against a fierce, aggressive striker like Dos Santos because you are essentially signaling to him what strikes are effective and what he should continue doing to cause you maximum pain and suffering. This is not something that is quickly improved, and Griffin has shown this weakness in almost all of his fights. Dos Santos is a stoic, stone-faced warrior and he’ll no doubt be able to use this vulnerability to his advantage.

If this fight was taking place anywhere else in the world I’d be a little nervous because Griffin carries abnormal power for the weight class, but Dos Santos has a good chin and he’s tough so I don’t see him losing to someone like Griffin in Brazil. Home advantage is huge in Brazil and I expect Dos Santos to win this fight relatively comfortably.

Reasons for betting on Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos

Colby Covington vs Demian Maia Betting Tip and Prediction

Imagine this…

You are 29 years old. You have traveled to Brazil to fight a Legend in front of his hometown fans. When you arrive you notice that the air feels different, the food is different and you’re surrounded by people that want to see you fail.

On fight day you warm up in the back while you hear the roar of the crowd cheer for their Gladiators. The chant “Uh Vai Morrer” [You are going to die in Portuguese] echoes around the arena. It doesn’t sound that loud on TV, but the sound in the stadium is so deafening that it is making your whole body vibrate with nerves.

As you get closer to the time of your fight, the crowd gets louder and louder as the intensity of their excitement grows stronger and stronger. You are fighting one of their heroes, Demian Maia. A man who grew up in Sao Paolo, which is the city where UFC Fight Night 119 takes place.

The event seems to last for an eternity, but eventually, it’s your turn. It’s time to make the walk…

As you walk to the Octagon, your heart is beating out of your chest. You can cut through the hatred in the air with a Knife. Even breathing feels more difficult in the intense atmosphere created by the Brazilian fans. Suddenly the world weighs heavily on your chest.

Finally, you get into the Octagon and while your opponent walks to the cage, you start to think about how the fight might go. This is the biggest fight of your life. You remember that you’ve talked a massive amount of trash online and this makes you feel even more pressured to win this fight.

Then you remember that you are fighting one of the best grapplers in the history of the UFC. When you’ve found yourself in tough positions in the past, you’ve always been able to turn to your wrestling to get you out of trouble, but that won’t work this time. You know that if you make one mistake in 15 minutes, your opponent will capitalize on it and you’ll get mounted or your back taken. You cannot afford to make a single mistake in 15 minutes. There are no second chances with this guy.

As the fight starts, your opponent comes rushing across the cage at you and throws himself into a scrappy takedown attempt. The crowd goes wild, and you have no time to settle. No time to find your rhythm and get comfortable. This is it. You’re in a dogfight now. A fight to the death. A fight for your life. If you make one mistake, your back will get taken, or you’ll get mounted.

Do you think you can do it? Do you really think you can avoid making one mistake under this amount of pressure? Against one of the greatest grapplers in the history of MMA? In an arena full of 10,000 people that want to see you fail? With millions of people at home watching who have seen you talk all kinds of trash on Social Media?

It takes a special kind of person to be able to perform to their full potential in this situation. This type of person normally develops this skill over many years of experience competing in high-pressure situations. Based on Colby Covington’s career I am not convinced that he has the skills or experience to thrive in the pressure cooker of Sao Paulo on Saturday night.

To break this fight down, we must evaluate each area where the fight could take place. Let’s start with striking…

From what I have seen, Maia is a better striker defensively and Covington is better offensively, but there’s not a massive difference between the two. Maia does a great job of controlling the center of the Octagon by applying just enough pressure to put his opponent in a defensive state of mind without putting on too much pressure that could get him into trouble. Maia is very good at moving in and out of his opponent’s range and avoiding damage. Covington is a nervous striker, who is not comfortable in exchanges, but he’s better offensively and he’s more active than Maia standing up. If the fight stays standing I believe it will be close. Covington will probably land more strikes, but Maia’s ability to apply constant pressure and hold the center of the Octagon will make it difficult for Covington to win a decision over the hometown favorite.

In the clinch, Covington has a significant advantage. He’s strong in this position and does a great job of maintaining back control against the cage, but does he really want to be in this position against Maia? Most of Maia’s takedowns come from trips against the cage and traditional wrestlers like Covington are not historically that skilled at defending takedowns from this position, because it’s not something they had to deal with in a conventional wrestling environment.

The final position for us to evaluate is the ground. From my research, I believe that Covington is a strong wrestler with average Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, while Maia is a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner with average wrestling.

So who comes out on top?

Based on what I’ve seen I believe Demian Maia will get the better of the grappling exchanges. I don’t think that Covington has the discipline or experience to avoid instinctively using his wrestling. At some point, he’ll have a lapse in concentration and go to his comfort blanket, which is wrestling.

If Covington were comfortable striking, I would not be saying this. But all of his striking is done to set up his wrestling, and he looks awkward and nervous in striking exchanges. I believe he’ll panic and engage in grappling at some point in this matchup because this is a habit he’s built up in his fights and I don’t think he has enough experience to break that habit yet. As humans, we are creatures of habit, and we like comfort. Colby’s only path to victory is to keep this fight standing, but he’s not comfortable from this position. He’s not like Masvidal, Condit or Brown who would do anything to avoid a grappling exchange. He will, at some point, more than likely want to gain comfort from a grappling exchange, and this is when Maia will be able to exploit his weaknesses in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

My main reason for betting on Maia is his ability to punish people for making small mistakes. When you compete against him you cannot make a single mistake, or he will take your back or mount you. It’s as simple as that. It doesn’t matter how many NCAA titles you have, if you make a mistake on the ground or in the clinch, he’s going to make you pay for it.

If you go back and watch Covington’s past fights, you’ll notice that he makes a lot of technical mistakes on the ground. His wrestling is incredible, but his positional and technical awareness is not. Dong Hyun Kim was able to gain positions on him that Maia would punish him for and even a low-level grappler like Max Griffin was able to create a scramble and reverse a position on Colby using a Kimura, which is a very easy reversal to prevent if you are an adept grappler. You simply cannot make these mistakes against Maia. If Colby makes the same mistakes, Maia will take his back. No question. No debate. Maia will take his back and secure a full body lock before Covington even knows what’s happening.

If this fight goes to the ground I give Maia a significant advantage.

If Colby can find a way to avoid trip takedowns and control Maia in the clinch then he’ll win easily.

If the fight stays standing, I think it will be very close.

At some point in the next couple of years, a young, hungry fighter like Colby Covington will beat Demian Maia because Maia is now 39 years old and he can’t continue to fight for much longer. Having said that, Maia still appears to be improving, and he seems to be in the best shape of his career. Bad cardio has held him back throughout his career, but his last fight against Woodley was one of his toughest matchups and his cardio looked great. Over and over again Woodley was able to shut down his takedown attempts, and this is exhausting. Previously, in a matchup like this Maia would have gassed out, but his new diet and training regimen seems to have given him a new level of cardio that we haven’t seen before.

Demian Maia is one of the best grapplers in the history of MMA and at 39 years old he appears to be entering his prime. He’s never looked this good. He is defying mother nature. Who knows when that will end, but I don’t see him losing to another grappler in his hometown. Covington is a fantastic wrestler, but his striking won’t pose Maia many problems and something tells me that Maia will find a way to take this fight to the ground. When it happens, I expect him to dominate.

Covington trains at the best gym in the world, and it’s possible that he has developed the skills and discipline required to drown out the crowd, take this opportunity in his stride and beat a Legend in front of his hometown fans. It could happen. But that Legend is incredibly good at making world-class, experienced fighters throw their gameplan out of the window and play his game. Maybe Covington can be the exception to the rule, but thus far he hasn’t shown us anything to suggest that he will be.

This bet is a gamble, but at the current odds, I think Maia is a great bet.

I just don’t see Maia losing to a less experienced grappler in front of his hometown fans. It could happen, but I believe it’s far more likely that Maia finds a way to make Covington compete on his terms.

Reasons for betting on Demian Maia

Francisco Trinaldo vs Jim Miller Betting Tip and Prediction

I have been waiting to bet on Jim Miller all week, but I’ve held off on pulling the trigger because Francisco Trinaldo is a popular fighter, so I expected the odds to improve on Miller. They have been steadily improving all week but now is the time for us to lock in our bet.

I was planning to wait until fight day before betting Miller, but Trinaldo looked terrible at today’s Media staredowns, and I am concerned that Miller’s odds will rapidly decline if news breaks that Trinaldo is having a tough weight cut. If you watch the video below, you’ll see that he looks to be struggling. His cheeks are sucked in, and he looked dehydrated:

Win or lose Jim Miller always pushes an insane pace for 15 minutes. He could be getting destroyed in every single area and still make his opponent work incredibly hard for every single second of the fight.

Trinaldo is a dangerous striker, but he tends to fade as the fight progresses and he becomes significantly less dangerous in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I believe Miller is an excellent bet at the current odds because he drags every single one of his opponent’s into a war and I do not believe that Trinaldo has the heart or cardio to engage in this kind of matchup for 15 minutes.

Trinaldo’s main threat is his striking, but Miller is extraordinarily durable and possesses one of the best chin’s in the history of the Lightweight division. This is backed up by the fact that he has only lost by KO one time in his 38 fight career. This is incredibly impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Miller has consistently competed against the best fighters in the world including, Anthony Pettis, Dustin Poirier, Nate Diaz, Thiago Alves, Joe Lauzon, Mike Chiesa, Danny Castillo, Beneil Dariush, prime Melvin Guillard, prime Benson Henderson, Duane Ludwig, prime Gray Maynard and madman Matt Wiman. The only fighter to ever KO him was Donald Cerrone. Trinaldo is a decent striker, but there’s nothing he can do to Miller that Miller hasn’t been able to deal with in the past.

Trinaldo also has a habit of looking for ways out when he is put into bad positions. He recently shot a lazy takedown against Kevin Lee after being rocked by a head kick and didn’t even bother trying to defend the rear naked choke that finished the fight. The choke was nowhere near locked in, but Trinaldo decided to quit instead of trying to fight out of a bad position. We also saw him pulling guard and accepting bad positions on the ground against Michael Chiesa and Yancy Medeiros in a desperate attempt to catch his breath. Bad cardio has plagued Trinaldo throughout his career and he doesn’t seem to have a way of dealing with it when he starts to get tired. If he goes to the ground against Miller he will be in big trouble…

In past fights, we’ve seen that Trinaldo gets tired and he will quit if you put him in a bad position. Miller isn’t great in any particular area of MMA, but he’s very good at turning fights into wars, fighting at a crazy pace and breaking people when they start to get tired. Due to these factors, I believe he is an excellent bet at the current odds. Trinaldo is a good matchup for him.

Reasons for betting on Jim Miller

Niko Price vs Vicente Luque Betting Tip and Prediction

We already have a lot of bets for UFC Fight Night 119, so I’m trying really hard to find reasons not to place any more bets, but I just keep finding incredible value in every single fight that I research. Vicente Luque to beat a guy like Niko Price at odds of 1.81 | -123 | 81/100? Are you KIDDING me?

In the Chat Room last night I was telling a few of the guys who only joined us in the last year that it used to be like this most weeks, but over the years bookies got sharper and sharper at capping fights.

These days it’s tough to find 1 to 3 good value bets on a card, but I feel like the bookies have set the odds on most of these fights taking place at UFC Fight Night 119 horribly wrong and the casual betting public hasn’t corrected them like they usually do. In some cases like with Marshman, Vera, Miller, and Luque the casual UFC bettors have actually helped to improve the odds for us when they typically jump on opening lines and destroy the value for the rest of us serious bettors who have to wait for the betting limits to open up.

My main reason for betting on Vicente Luque is simple. He is simply better than Niko Price in every single aspect of MMA. People may look at Niko’s 10-0 record and win over Alan Jouban and be impressed, but Jouban’s chin went a long time ago and 75% of Niko’s wins have come against a very low level of opponent.

If you go and watch Niko’s fight against Alex Morono, you’ll see that he got dropped and picked apart. Price has significant power in his hands for a Welterweight, so he was able to score a flash KO against Morono, but Vicente Luque has fought power strikers throughout his career, and he’s never been knocked out. We’ve seen him eat bombs from Thiago Santos, Leon Edwards, Hayder Hassan and Alvaro Herrera and none of them even came close to rocking him.

Niko Price is wild and reckless. He runs forward in straight lines with his chin up high and exposed, he throws wild looping strikes, and he looks to engage in chaotic exchanges. This is suicide against a guy like Luque who moves like an Assassin inside the Octagon. His punches land with breathtaking speed and Laser targetted accuracy. Luque is one of the best in the Welterweight division at planting his feet, keeping his eyes wide open and landing huge counters in Boxing range. The more chaotic you make a fight, the more he thrives. When you watch him in exchanges, it looks like he is fighting in the Matrix. He is so present in the moment that he can move just enough to soften the impact of the strikes that he absorbs, while still keeping balance and perfect technical posture to deliver devastating counters that carry knockout power.

We also have to throw into the mix that Luque has home advantage on his side. Niko has competed in small regional promotions for the majority of his career, and he doesn’t have any experience competing in front of the intensity of the Brazilian fans. Brazilian fighters win around 67% of the time when they fight non-Brazilians in Brazil, so we’re already getting good value on Luque at the current odds.

The only thing that stops me from going bigger on Luque is the fact that he is stepping up to take this fight on 2 weeks notice. Having said that, I’ve checked his Social Media accounts, and he appears to be in good shape. Over the last couple of months he has helped Robbie Lawler, Gilbert Burns, Luke Rockhold and Kamaru Usman prepare for their fights, so it seems that he has constantly been training:

Já está chegando a hora da diversão! Estamos trabalhando forte para chegarmos prontos • Soon it’s time to have fun! We’re working hard and getting ready ??? #UFC #UFCSAOPAULO #UFCSP #UFCBRASIL #MMA #Sparring #Brasilia #Bsb #MMAFighter #MuayThai #Fighter #Kickboxing #Boxing #Boxe #Striking #MMATraining #MixedMartialArts #Hardwork #Dedication #Blessed #Gratidão #Luque #TeamLuque #TheSilentAssassin

A post shared by Vicente Luque (@luquevicente) on Oct 26, 2017 at 4:25am PDT

 

Tonight my teammates go to war, and I am glad that I can be by there side helping them in any form possible!! You guys are more then ready, now it’s time to have fun and do what you love. Let’s go!! • Hoje meus amigos vão pra guerra e estou feliz em poder estar ajudando na preparação!! Vocês estão prontos, agora é hora de se divertir e fazer o que amam. Vamos nessa ???#UFCPittsburgh #UFC #Anatomyofafighter #FilmMaker #FilmMaking #Fighting #MMA #MMAFighter #Fighter #Kickboxing #MMATraining #MixedMartialArts #Hardwork #Dedication #Luque #SilentAssassin #TheSilentAssassin #TeamLuque

A post shared by Vicente Luque (@luquevicente) on Sep 16, 2017 at 2:59pm PDT

Great night!! 3 fights, 3 wins, 3 finishes. The hard work was done before the fight, the outcome couldn’t be different • Noite incrível!! 3 lutas, 3 vitórias, 3 nocautes. O trabalho foi feito antes da luta, o resultado não podia ser diferente ?? #MMA #Sparring #MMAFighter #MuayThai #Fighter #Kickboxing #Boxing #Boxe #Striking #LutaLivre #BLL #MMATraining #MixedMartialArts #Hardwork #Dedication #Luque #SilentAssassin #TheSilentAssassin #TeamLuque

A post shared by Vicente Luque (@luquevicente) on Sep 17, 2017 at 9:38am PDT

 

What an honor to train with this legend and former welterweight champ @ruthless_rl It has been an extraordinary experience here in Florida training with all of this guys, and I can assure everyone that @gilbert_burns @usman84kg @lukerockhold are ready to do work on September 16th! Thanks @henrihooft for everything ??? #MMA #Sparring #MMAFighter #MuayThai #Fighter #Kickboxing #Boxing #Boxe #Striking #MMATraining #MixedMartialArts #Hardwork #Dedication #Luque #TeamLuque #TheSilentAssassin

A post shared by Vicente Luque (@luquevicente) on Aug 25, 2017 at 10:39am PDT

Great to be here helping this guys for their fights and at the same time learning so much from all of them!!!• Muito bom poder estar ajudando esses caras para suas lutas e ao mesmo tempo estar aprendendo tanto com eles!! #MMA #Sparring #MMAFighter #MuayThai #Fighter #Kickboxing #Boxing #Boxe #Striking #MMATraining #MixedMartialArts #Hardwork #Dedication #Luque #TeamLuque #TheSilentAssassin

A post shared by Vicente Luque (@luquevicente) on Aug 17, 2017 at 10:20am PDT

Reasons for betting on Vicente Luque