Our UFC on Fox 20 betting guide gives you a full breakdown of all of the things you should be taking into consideration when placing your bets for this weekend’s upcoming fight card. It contains all of the latest UFC betting odds, implied probabilities for each fighter and several factors that can affect the outcome of this weekend’s fights…
UFC on FOX 20 Betting Odds
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Here are the latest UFC on FOX 20 Betting Odds…
UFC on FOX 20 Implied Probabilities
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Implied probability allows us to calculate the probabilities of each fighter winning based on the odds assigned to them by Odds makers. If the implied probability of a fighter winning is less than our probability based on our research, there is value in the odds.
Here are the percentage chances that the Bookies believe each fighter has of winning.
| Dmitry Smolyakov | 60% | Luis Henrique | 41% |
| Jim Alers | 68% | Jason Knight | 33% |
| George Sullivan | 65% | Hector Urbina | 37% |
| Alex Oliviera | 67% | James Moontasri | 35% |
| Michel Prazeres | 68% | JC Cottrell | 34% |
| Kamaru Usman | 67% | Alexander Yakovlev | 35% |
| Darren Elkins | 67% | Godofredo Pepey | 36% |
| Frankie Saenz | 61% | Eddie Wineland | 41% |
| Kailin Curran | 54% | Felice Herrig | 49% |
| Francis Ngannou | 88% | Bojan Mihajlovic | 17% |
| Edson Barboza | 67% | Gilbert Melendez | 36% |
| Holly Holm | 76% | Valentina Shevchenko | 27% |
USADA Watch for UFC on FOX 20
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]USADA have had a big impact on the sport since their random drug testing came into full force earlier this year. The following fighters have competed this year under the new USADA drug testing: Alexander Yakovlev, Francis Ngannou, Darren Elkins, George Sullivan, Alex Oliviera, Edson Barboza, Valentina Shevchenko and Holly Holm.
Here are a few fighters who may be impacted by the USADA drug testing programme…
Injury Concerns for UFC on FOX 20
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique was brutally knocked out by Francis Ngannou back in December last year. It can take a long time to fully recover from a knockout like that, so there’s a good chance that he is making his return to the UFC too soon. Checkout a video of the knockout below…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT0OpOcgCF0
Eddie Wineland
Eddie Wineland has suffered two broken jaws in his career; once back in 2004 and the other against Johnny Eduardo in May 2014. A broken jaw is one of the most serious injuries you can sustain in Combat Sports. A broken jaw almost always causes a fighter to fight more tentatively and they also become less durable.
Eddie Wineland looked very tentative in his fight against Bryan Caraway last year so we may see a similar performance against Frankie Saenz at UFC on FOX 20.
Here is the KO punch that broke Eddie Wineland’s jaw for a second time…
Valentina Shevchenko
Valentina Shevchenko has not sustained any physical injuries going into her main event fight against Holly Holm at UFC on FOX 20, but she did get caught up in an armed robbery at the beginning of June.
Her trainer was shot during the incident and in the Road to the Octagon video below she openly admits to the fact that the shooting has had a negative impact on her training.
Fighters Making Their Debut at UFC on FOX 20
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]JC Cottrell
JC Cottrell is 26 years old and has fought some good opposition, having competed in Legacy FC and Bellator MMA. He will be coming into the UFC with a 17-3 record and is currently on a 6 fight winning streak. 11 of his 17 wins have come by submission.
Take a look at one of Cottrell’s most recent fights below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4PcYUAEL5o
Dmitry Smolyakov
Dmitry Smolyakov is coming into the UFC with an undefeated pro MMA record of 7-0. All of his victories have come by first round stoppage. Smolyakov has only fought a low level of opponent throughout his career so it’s tough to gauge how he will do in the UFC…
Here is one of Smolyakov’s recent fights against Lukas Batovsky from back in December 2015…
Bojan Mihajlovic
Bojan Mihajlovic is making his UFC debut against Francis Ngannou at UFC on FOX 20. The Serbian has a 10-3 record and is currently on a 10 fight winning streak.
Mihajlovic also has a very padded record with most of his opponents being very low level regional fighters from Serbia. Judging by some of his past performances I have a feeling that Bojan will really struggle to survive in the UFC.
Here is his most recent fight against Muhamad Mahmic…
Fighters With Home Advantage at UFC on FOX 20
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][mpc_testimonial preset=”mpc_preset_18″ background_type=”gradient” background_gradient=”rgba(0,0,0,0)||rgba(0,0,0,0)||0;100||180||linear” author_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ author_font_color=”#0a0a0a” author_font_align=”left” author=”Felice Herrig” url_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ url_font_color=”#f7f7f7″ url_font_size=”14″ hover_url_color=”#ffffff” url=”|||” testimonial_font_color=”#000000″ testimonial_font_size=”13″ testimonial_font_align=”left” thumbnail=”29545″ thumbnail_size=”239×243″ thumbnail_border_css=”border-width:0px;border-color:#ffffff;border-style:solid;border-radius:0px;” thumbnail_padding_divider=”true” thumbnail_padding_css=”padding-right:10px;padding-left:0px;” border_css=”border-radius:5px;” padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-top:20px;”]Felice Herrig is the only fighter competing at UFC on FOX 20 who will have home advantage on her side. This could be the deciding factor in a fight that appears to be very close on paper. Many Women’s MMA fights tend to be close, so the home fans supporting Herrig could have a strong influence on the judges scorecards. I expect home advantage to play a big factor in this matchup…[/mpc_testimonial]Short Notice Fighters
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][mpc_testimonial preset=”mpc_preset_18″ background_type=”gradient” background_gradient=”rgba(0,0,0,0)||rgba(0,0,0,0)||0;100||180||linear” author_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ author_font_color=”#0a0a0a” author_font_align=”left” author=”JC Cottrell” url_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ url_font_color=”#f7f7f7″ url_font_size=”14″ hover_url_color=”#ffffff” url=”|||” testimonial_font_color=”#000000″ testimonial_font_size=”13″ testimonial_font_align=”left” thumbnail=”29550″ thumbnail_size=”239×179″ thumbnail_border_css=”border-width:0px;border-color:#ffffff;border-style:solid;border-radius:0px;” thumbnail_padding_divider=”true” thumbnail_padding_css=”padding-right:10px;padding-left:0px;” border_css=”border-radius:5px;” padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-top:20px;”]JC Cottrell is coming into this fight to replace the injured Tony Martin. The bout was made official last Tuesday (12/07/2016), which means that Cottrell will only have 11 days to prepare for his UFC debut. Cottrell will also be moving up in weight for this bout, having fought at Featherweight just a month ago.[/mpc_testimonial]Size Advantages
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]JC Cottrell vs Michel Prazeres
JC Cottrell will have a 4 inch height and 3 inch reach advantage over Michel Prazeres.
Alex Oliveira vs James Moontasri
Alex Oliviera will have a 6 inch reach advantage over James Moontasri.
Bojan Mihajlovic vs Francis Ngannou
Francis Ngannou has an extremely long reach of 83 inches. He will also have a 5 inch height advantage over Mihajlovic. In the weigh in’s for previous fights, Mihajlovic has tended to weigh in around the 240 lbs mark; whereas, Ngannou weighed in at 254 lbs against Luiz Henrique and at 252 lbs against Curtis Blaydes. A 10 lbs weight difference can have a huge impact on how a fight plays out.
Francis Ngannou is a big Heavyweight at 6 ft 4, whilst Mihajlovic is only 5 ft 11. Mihajlovic is very small for a Heavyweight
Holly Holm vs Valentina Shevchenko
Holly Holm is a very big Bantamweight and has competed as high as 152 lbs in boxing. She will have a 3 inch height and 2 inch reach advantage over Valentina Shevchenko.
Age Concerns
[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”]Frankie Saenz
Frankie Saenz had a great 2015, producing a big upset against Iuri Alcantara and putting in a good performance against Uriah Faber at UFC 194. Unfortunately, Saenz is now 35 years old, which is around about the time that fighters begin to decline.
George Sullivan
Sullivan is now 36 years old and is recently coming off of a KO loss against Alexander Yakovlev. His last 3 fights have been tough and he is likely starting to decline.
Bojan Mihajlovic
At 36 years old, Bojan Mihajlovic is making his UFC debut late in his career. He has also been quite inactive, having only competed in 13 MMA fights since he turned pro in 2003. He has only fought once since December 2014.
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