JOSE ALDO vs CHAD MENDES
George St-Pierre became one of the most dominant UFC Champions of all time, by forcing his opponents to fight his fight. Jose Aldo does exactly the same thing, except it’s less obvious because he uses his striking to control fights, as opposed to GSP’s grappling based style of fighting. Aldo’s performances may not look all that dominant, but if you take a look back at his record, you’ll notice that he hardly ever losses a round… My betting research for this match up has shown that Jose Aldo has significant advantages in almost every area that this fight could take place and yet 90% of the total amount of money bet on this fight, is being bet on Chad Mendes to win [statistic comes courtesy of Bet365, the largest online betting website in the world]. I’ve broken this betting tip down into the 3 main areas where the majority of people feel that this fight will be contested; grappling, striking and cardio. I’ll start off with the area in which people believe that Chad Mendes has the biggest advantage…Grappling
The media are selling this fight as a classic Striker vs Grappler encounter, but people seem to be forgetting that Jose Aldo is an absolute beast on the ground. He also has some of the best takedown defence in the world, having defended 91% of all takedown attempts in 14 WEC and UFC fights. It’s easy to write off Aldo and give Mendes the advantage when it comes to grappling, but there are no guarantees that Mendes is going to have it all his own way if he manages to take this fight to the ground. It’s also worth noting that Mendes attempted 7 takedowns in their first fight and Aldo easily stuffed all of them. [with a little help from the cage!!!] Before you call shenanigans on this statement, I just want to point out that Mendes did get Aldo down for a split second, but a takedown is not officially classified as a takedown unless a dominant position is secured. Chad Mendes is a strong wrestler, but he doesn’t have the best top control and he’s also not the best at passing guard and improving his position. The Brazilian crowd will be putting a lot of pressure on the referee to stand this fight up if Mendes does get Aldo down and I can’t see many referees allowing lay and pray tactics with a stadium full of angry Brazilians. The problem with Mendes’ style of fighting, is that he isn’t the vicious ground and pound type of fighter who looks to put people away and inflict big time damage from top positions. His willingness to coast in his opponent’s full guard is a sure fire way to get this fight stood up. Jose Aldo has world class Jiu Jitsu with elite transitions, scrambles and submissions. Chad Mendes could be in big trouble if he tries to hang with Aldo on the ground…Striking
There’s been a lot of talk about Chad Mendes’ improved striking in the build up to this fight, but we haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that it has improved all that much. Yes, he has been brutally knocking guys out, but his last 5 wins have all come against Yaotzin Meza, Cody McKenzie, Nik Lentz, Clay Guida and Darren Elkins. None of those guys have very good striking… In order to accurately gauge Mendes’ improvements in striking, I would’ve really liked to have seen him fight a guy who is a good striker. I’m still finding it difficult to work out how Mendes earned a title shot by beating those 5 guys. The UFC’s Featherweight division has never been so stacked and yet Mendes still managed to earn a title shot without fighting anyone in the current top 10 rankings. It appears that everyone agrees on Chad Mendes being the number one contender, but how can he be considered the biggest threat to Jose Aldo’s title when he hasn’t beaten a top 10 fighter in over 4 years? Mendes managed to dodge Frankie Edgar, Conor McGregor, Cub Swanson, Ricardo Lamas, Dustin Poirier, Dennis Bermudez, Jeremy Stephens and Charles Oliveira. When you look at the 5 guys Mendes beat to earn a title shot and look at the guys he’s yet to face, I’m not even sure if Mendes could be considered a top 5 fighter any more… Jose Aldo has a world class striking game and he’s extremely good at getting in and out without taking any damage. Mendes is going to find it extremely hard to land anything significant, because Aldo won’t spend time hanging around in his striking range.Cardio
Some people believe that Mendes could exploit Aldo’s questionable cardio and grind out a win. Personally, I don’t believe that Aldo’s cardio will be a factor in this fight, because Mendes has a cardio intensive style of fighting and his body type indicates that he will slow down the longer a fight goes on. Mendes also doesn’t do a great job of conserving energy, because he throws everything that he has into his punches and relentlessly pursues takedowns. This style of fighting exerts a lot of energy and it’s not sustainable for 25 minutes. You also have to take into consideration the fact that Mendes has never fought a full 5 rounds before. Who knows how he is going to look in the 4th and 5th rounds of this fight? I also feel like Aldo is aware of his cardio issues and he uses a gameplan which makes it hard for his opponents to capitalize on this weakness. The first stage of this gameplan involves Aldo landing brutal leg kicks throughout the 1st and 2nd rounds of a fight. These leg kicks are significant, because they take away the power and mobility of his opponent. This strategy reminds me of the Indian Snake Charmers, who remove the fangs of deadly Cobras, so that there’s no risk of them getting fatally bitten if they lose their concentration. Aldo does exactly the same thing. He realises that he’s not the best in the 4th and 5th rounds of a fight, so he goes to work on his opponents legs early in the fight, which makes them significantly less dangerous the longer a fight goes on. Aldo is also great at conserving energy. If you look at Chad Mendes throwing a punch, you’ll notice that he throws everything into it, with very little technique. Aldo delivers strikes that are fast, crisp and technical and above all else, they don’t use that much energy, because he throws them using the correct techniques. You cannot deny that Aldo has been put in trouble towards the end of some of his most recent fights, but he was never really in any danger of being stopped and by the time his opponents managed to gain the upper hand, Aldo was already very far ahead on the judges scorecards.My Pick
Jose Aldo does have flaws in his game, but I don’t believe that Chad Mendes is the guy to exploit them. When trying to work out the most likely outcome of this fight, you have to take into consideration the fact that Jose Aldo has never been rocked and I can count the number of times on one hand that I’ve seen him bruised or bleeding. All things considered, I’m finding it really difficult to give Chad Mendes any chance of winning this fight. When you factor in home advantage, it looks like it’s going to be another tough night in Brazil for Mendes. OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Jose Aldo to win at odds of 1.47 | -212 | 47/100 The best odds on Jose Aldo to win can be found at: [adrotate group=”64″][divider]
