CUB SWANSON vs MAX HOLLOWAY
When I first started to research this fight, I couldn’t pick a winner. I felt that Swanson would land the more significant strikes, but Holloway would land more volume. It’s tough to pick a winner in situations like that, but the more I watched both guys, the more I became convinced that Holloway would win. This isn’t a pick that I’ve taken lightly and I do believe that this fight has the potential to be close, but at odds of 2.35 | +135 | 27/20 I believe Holloway is a great value bet… Max Holloway lands an average of 5.62 significant strikes per minute compared to Swanson who lands an average of 3.13. This is an important stat to take into consideration because this fight is probably going to take place standing up. This means that Holloway has an advantage, because he will more than likely be able to out-strike Swanson. Of course it’s important to recognise that stats need to be interpreted in order for them to be applied correctly and Holloway will naturally have landed more strikes per minute because he has fought a much lower level of opponent. However… I’ve also noticed that Swanson’s striking isn’t anywhere near as efficient against skilled strikers like Max Holloway. This showed in his recent fights against Denis Siver and Jeremy Stephens, where he struggled to gain the upper hand in the early stages of both fights. Holloway is very technical and he utilizes excellent footwork and head movement to avoid getting hit. This is the exact style of fighting that Swanson seems to struggle against and his telegraphed power strikes and lack of setups mean that Holloway will be able to circle away from danger before Swanson has a chance to land. Holloway might not have a dominant style of fighting that helps him put a stamp on rounds, but he does stick to a solid game-plan and he’s very consistent. I have no doubt Holloway is going to be able to stay on the outside and land volume strikes on Swanson and I don’t believe that Swanson will have an answer for that. If you go back and watch Swanson’s fights, you’ll notice that he gets frustrated easily if a fight isn’t going his way. If this happens he’ll resort to head hunting, which makes him very predictable. If Holloway shows up and fights like he normally does, he’s going to frustrate Swanson, because he’ll land his combos with more accuracy and with a higher volume. His good footwork and solid head movement will also mean he won’t be in striking range when Swanson throws his unorthodox [but telegraphed] power strikes. I believe that Swanson will find it difficult to gain the upper hand in the striking exchanges and that’s going to frustrate him the longer the fight goes on. This fight is most probably going to be contested standing up and in a straight striking battle, I have to pick the guy with the better striking. I believe that Holloway is a better all-round striker than Cub Swanson and for that reason I’m picking Holloway to win. Yes, Swanson throws some flashy kicks, but hardly any of them land. If you really study Swanson’s stand up game, you’ll notice that it isn’t that technical at all. Most of his strikes are winged punches and a solid striker with good footwork and head movement [like Holloway] should be able to deal with this style quite easily. You also have to take into consideration the fact that Swanson is coming into this fight on the back of a devastating loss to Frankie Edgar. Prior to that he won a close fight against Jeremy Stephens and struggled against Denis Siver in the early stages of that fight. This is also Swanson’s first fight since leaving Jackson’s MMA. Most fighters who have left Jackson’s have declined and on the back of a devasting loss to Frankie Edgar, I don’t see Swanson being any different… Swanson is an intelligent guy and a self-confessed deep thinker. After his loss to Frankie Edgar he has to realise that at the age of 31 it’s unlikely that he’ll ever become a UFC Champion. In contrast, Holloway is 8 years younger at just 23 years old and he’s coming into this fight on a huge win streak. Momentum and confidence are definitely on Holloway’s side and MMA is a game of fine margins. Confidence is such a huge part of this sport and Swanson’s confidence has to be shot to bits after Edgar completely dominated him for 25 minutes. Holloway might not have a bunch of notable wins against big names on his record, but he’s extremely well rounded, he has cardio for days and he fights at a high pace. He also has solid fight IQ, good game-planning and he always shows up and fights to his full potential. This fight has the potential to be close, but with age, technique, output, fight IQ and consistency all on Holloway’s side, I have to bet him at these odds. I also recommend that you bet on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds. Swanson and Holloway are both extremely tough and extremely well rounded and I can’t see either guy winning this fight inside the distance. Betting on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds is also a good way to minimize our losses if Swanson ends up pulling off a decision win. I feel it’s very unlikely that Swanson will be able to finish Holloway inside the distance, which makes the over 2.5 rounds a good insurance bet… [adrotate group=”125″]MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Max Holloway to win at odds of 2.35 | +135 | 27/20 MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.45 | -222 | 9/20
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BENEIL DARIUSH vs JIM MILLER
Beneil Dariush is a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Muay Thai under Rafael Cordeiro. He also has the benefit of training with the current UFC Lightweight Champion, Rafael Dos Anjos. Dariush recently outstruck Daron Cruickshank in a predominantly striking based fight, until Cruickshank wilted under Dariush’s vicious Muay Thai kicks and decided to try and take this fight to the ground. Prior to that, Dariush dominated Carlos Diego Ferreira in a predominantly grappling based fight. Daron Cruickshank is a high level striker and Carlos Diego Ferreira is a high level grappler and yet Dariush was able to defeat both of them with the discipline in which they felt the most comfortable. This is a sign of an excellent fighter and it’s a sign that Dariush is so well rounded that he can compete at a high level wherever this fight takes place. Jim Miller is also well rounded, but his striking is more one dimensional. Dariush mixes in excellent kicks with his striking and he’s also very dangerous in the clinch. If this fight stays standing, I favour Dariush, because I believe he has the ability to break Miller down with his vicious body and leg kicks. Miller doesn’t really throw any kicks and I feel this gives Dariush a huge advantage in this fight, because Miller doesn’t possess knockout power in his hands. You also have to take into account the fact that Jim Miller and Beneil Dariush are both Southpaws. This means that Miller’s body will be wide open to Dariush’s vicious body kicks. Dariush was able to repeatedly land huge body kicks on Cruickshank, which I believe is very significant because Miller is no where near as mobile or defensive as Cruickshank. As a result, I’d like to think that Dariush will have at least the same amount of success landing kicks on Miller. When two Southpaws fight each other, you often get left with an awkward striking battle because Southpaw’s aren’t used to fighting Southpaws. In situations like this, you always have to favour the more technical striker and I believe that Dariush is the more technically gifted fighter. It can’t have been easy earning a Black Belt in Muay Thai under Rafael Cordeiro and Miller’s striking has never been that fluid… If this fight goes to the ground, I believe it’s going to be fairly even. Both guys have high level BJJ and they’re both skilled enough to identify a risk and avoid it. Miller holds an impressive MMA record of 24-5, but he’s also been in a lot of wars. This is bound to take it’s toll on Miller’s 31 year old body eventually. Dariush is currently 10-1 and 6 years younger than Miller. At just 25 years old Dariush, is the fresher fighter and this normally proves to be a big advantage. I recommend betting 3.5 units on Beneil Dariush to beat Jim Miller, because I believe that Dariush is better everywhere. In circumstances like this where a guy has such huge advantages, I’d normally recommend betting 5 units. On this occasion we do need to show some extra caution and bet a little less because this fight takes place in Miller’s home-town and Dariush is also taking this fight on short notice. I don’t believe that taking the fight on short notice will play too much of a factor here because Dariush never takes breaks in between his fights and he’s constantly training in the gym. This is probably one of the reasons why we see him improve so much from fight to fight. Beneil Dariush to beat Jim Miller is one of my most confident bets for UFC on FOX 15… [adrotate group=”132″]MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Beneil Dariush to win at odds of 1.60 | -167 | 3/5
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ALJAMAIN STERLING vs TAKEYA MIZUGAKI
I believe that the Aljamain Sterling vs Takeya Mizugaki fight will last longer than 2.5 rounds because both guys are tough and they’re both well rounded… Takeya Mizugaki has only been finished 3 times in 28 pro fights and 6 out of his last 7 fights have gone to a decision. Dominick Cruz is the only guy who has finished Mizugaki inside the distance in 10 UFC fights. Aljamain Sterling is well rounded and talented, but he doesn’t bring anything new to the table that Mizugaki hasn’t dealt with before. Mizugaki has fought plenty of strong wrestlers and whilst Sterling does have flashy striking, he doesn’t have the knockout power to put Mizugaki in danger. Sterling is a strong grappler, but he favours position and control over submissions, which means his opponents aren’t in too much danger when a fight goes to the ground. Mizugaki has good defensive grappling and I haven’t seen anything from Sterling’s grappling which suggests he’d be vulnerable to getting submitted or capable of submitting Mizugaki. The majority of Mizugaki’s fights have gone to a decision and he lacks finishing power. I’d be very surprised if this fight ends inside the distance. I believe that this fight is more likely to go to a decision than any other fight at UFC on FOX 15… [adrotate group=”113″]MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on this fight lasting longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.43 | -233 | 43/100
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GEORGE SULLIVAN vs TIM MEANS
Tim Means is at his best when he’s fighting guys who will stand and trade with him. This makes George Sullivan the perfect opponent because Sullivan doesn’t have the cardio or footwork to counter strike… Tim Means to beat George Sullivan is my most confident bet for UFC on FOX 15, because Tim Means is simply better than Sullivan in any area that this fight could take place. Means even has the chin to withstand Sullivan’s power strikes and the grappling skills to deal with Sullivan in the unlikely event that Sullivan tries to take this fight to the ground. Tim Means fights at a very high pace and he has cardio for days. Sullivan has shown poor cardio throughout his career and I don’t believe that he’ll be able to keep up with the pace that Means sets. Sullivan will probably wilt under the pressure in the 2nd or 3rd round. Sullivan has started to gas out by the end of the 1st round in both of his fights in the UFC and Means will push him to his absolute limit from the very first second of the fight. George Sullivan is primarily a striker, but he has poor technique and he loads up on his punches. This makes him predictable and Means should have no problem picking him apart. Means fights very long and he’s very accurate with his strikes. He also throws a very diverse range of strikes and he’s strong in the clinch. There’s no way that Sullivan is going to be able to compete against Means standing up, Means is just far too fast and far too technical… Means also does a great job of taking the centre of the Octagon and controlling it for the whole of the fight. This is great for scoring points on the judges scorecards but it’s also great because Sullivan won’t be anywhere near as effective if he’s forced to fight going backwards. Tim Means is a naturally right handed fighter but he also looks very comfortable fighting out of the Southpaw position. Means will actually switch his stance to Southpaw when he fights orthodox stanced opponents. His ability to fight out of the stance that gives his opponent the most trouble is a huge advantage over one dimensional strikers like Sullivan. Tim Means is extremely well rounded, he has cardio for days and he’s a much better fighter than George Sullivan. Apart from a flash knockout or judges robbery, I don’t give Sullivan much of a chance in this fight. George Sullivan has home advantage, but that’s the only advantage he has in this fight. I expect Tim Means to put on a striking clinic and completely dominate Sullivan. [adrotate group=”132″]MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Tim Means at odds of 1.68 | -147 | 17/25
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Really like the updates man.