CARLOS CONDIT vs THIAGO ALVES BETTING TIP
Carlos Condit returns to action against Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 67 after being out of action for just over a year with a knee injury. Alves is tough, durable and aggressive, but this is a good fight for Condit and I expect him to win. Condit has good Jiu Jitsu, but his weakness has always been his takedown defence and he’s lost fights in the past because strong wrestlers have been able to take him down and control him on the ground. In his last 4 fights Tyron Woodley, Johny Hendricks, George St Pierre and even Martin Kampmann have repeatedly tried to take him down. This has resulted in Condit losing 3 out of his last 4 fights, but he’s looked impressive in defeat and Thiago Alves is the perfect type of opponent for him to showcase his skills… [box type=”info” align=”aligncenter” class=”” width=””] I’ve already made 46.97 units of profit in 2015. Betting just $10 per unit on each of my betting tips this year would have resulted in a profit of $469.70. Betting $100 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $4697 and betting $1000 per unit would have resulted in a total profit of $46,970. My results in 2015 are tracked and verified by Cappertek, a 3rd party bet tracking platform. Click here to checkout my Cappertek verified results for 2015…[/box] Carlos Condit is predominantly a striker and everybody tries to beat him by taking him down. This has a huge impact on his performance, because the constant threat of a takedown will make him more reluctant to commit to strikes which could leave him open to getting taken down. I believe that Thiago Alves will bring out the best in Carlos Condit, because he will not try to take Condit down. This will enable Condit to focus on what he does best. Alves might have better technical striking, but Condit holds a 5 inch reach advantage and throws a much higher volume of strikes. Condit is also extremely tough, extremely well rounded and he has cardio for days. My only concerns with betting on Condit to win, is the fact that he’s coming back from a long layoff due to a knee injury and the fact that Alves will have home advantage on his side, since this fight is taking place in Brazil. Despite these issues, I still feel very confident that Condit will win and I feel he’s a good value bet at the current odds. If this was a 3 round fight, I’d be more reluctant to bet on Condit, because Alves could steal a couple of rounds by being more aggressive and landing the more significant strikes. The fact that this is a 5 round fight changes everything, because I don’t believe that Alves will be able to match Condit’s output for 5 rounds. Condit is extremely tough and extremely well rounded and I seriously doubt that Alves will be able to win this fight inside the distance. I believe that Condit will easily beat Alves by breaking him down and outworking him over the course of the 25 minute fight. [adrotate group=”95″]Click here to read more of my betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night 67 Carlos Condit vs Thiago Alves.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Carlos Condit to win at odds of 1.42 | -236 | 21/50
