BEN ROTHWELL vs MATT MITRIONE BETTING TIP
Matt Mitrione’s evolution since he started training at the Blackzilians has been inspiring to watch. His striking has significantly improved from fight to fight and Henri Hooft has molded him into a devastating knockout artist. If you go back and watch Mitrione’s last few fights, you will see that he has made big improvements from fight to fight and he looks completely different to how he looked just 3 fights ago. Ben Rothwell is tough and powerful, but his striking defence is terrible. He doesn’t try to block strikes, he doesn’t utilize head movement and his footwork is non existent. Rothwell’s inability to evade strikes will make him a sitting duck for Matt Mitrione’s power punches and I believe that it will only be a matter of time before Mitrione connects with something big. Matt Mitrione’s biggest weapon is his speed. Few Heavyweight’s are able to get in and out of their opponent’s striking range as fast as Mitrione and this will be a huge advantage against a big, slow guy like Ben Rothwell. Matt Mitrione also has the ability to fight out of the Southpaw stance, even though he is a natural Orthodox stanced fighter. He uses this ability to great effect by switching stances throughout a fight and this will make it difficult for Rothwell to time Mitrione and settle into any kind of striking rhythm. Matt Mitrione also throws a much higher volume of strikes per minute than Ben Rothwell. Ben Rothwell and Matt Mitrione both like to keep fights standing and I cannot see this fight going to the ground. Mitrione’s footwork and speed will make it very difficult for Rothwell to tie him up and I don’t believe that grappling will be a factor in this fight. Ben Rothwell is a 33 year old ex TRT user with 43 pro fights under his belt. He’s suffered a lot of head trauma throughout his career and he has a lot of miles on the MMA clock. In contrast, Mitrione is relatively new to the sport with only 12 pro fights and he’s only ever been knocked out once. Mitrione is by far the fresher fighter and I believe this gives him a significant advantage over Rothwell. This fight is likely to be contested standing up and in a stand up fight, Matt Mitrione holds almost every single advantage that you can possibly have… He’s faster, he’s got knockout power, he can switch stances, he’s better defensively, he throws a wider range of strikes and he lands a much higher number of strikes per minute. Rothwell has a punchers chance in this fight and whilst his punchers chance may be significant due to the fact that he hits hard, it’s certainly not enough to deter me from betting on Mitrione to win. [adrotate group=”132″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Matt Mitrione to win at odds of 1.54 | -185 | 27/50
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DUSTIN POIRIER vs YANCY MEDEIROS BETTING TIP
I personally believe that Dustin Poirier vs Yancy Medeiros should be the main event at UFC Fight Night 68. I understand that Dan Henderson has achieved a lot in his career, but this is a very exciting fight and Dustin Poirier is extremely popular in Louisiana. In my opinion, Dustin Poirier and Yancy Medeiros are way more relevant right now than Tim Boetsch and Dan Henderson. This fight is probably going to be a crazy barn burner and whilst you may find it difficult to pick a winner when you first study both guys, I feel pretty confident that Dustin Poirier is going to win. It might not be easy an easy win, the fight may go back and forth, but ultimately I believe Poirier will be the guy who gets his hand raised in victory… In order to beat guys like Dustin Poirier, you have to finish them. It’s as simple as that. Poirier is simply too aggressive and too well rounded to get beaten on the scorecards. This is backed up by the fact that he has only lost by decision 2 times in his 23 fight career. When you factor in that Poirier will also have hometown advantage on his side, you have to realise that Medeiros winning by decision is an extremely unlikely scenario. So can Medeiros win this fight by finishing Poirier inside the distance?… I believe it’s very unlikely… All this talk about Poirier having a glass jaw is nonsense. When I see people criticize Poirier for his inability to take a punch, it only highlights to me how uneducated they are as MMA fans. Put simply… Dustin Poirier is 19-4 and he’s only been finished once with strikes in his 23 fight career. I’ve never even seen him get knocked out cold and he didn’t look that badly hurt against Conor McGregor. I get that he got rocked against Akira Corassani, but I put that down to over confidence and I doubt that he will make the same mistake in his hometown against a dangerous opponent like Yancy Medeiros. It’s also worth noting that Yancy Medeiros doesn’t possess knockout power. All his wins via strikes have come from breaking his opponents down with volume and Dustin Poirier is not an easy guy to break. You also have to take into consideration the fact that Poirier is a natural Southpaw, which will make it a lot harder for Medeiros to land significant strikes. He certainly won’t be able to land with the same volume that we have seen from him in his previous fights, because Poirier will be moving differently and throwing strikes from different angles. So can Medeiros win this fight on the ground? Again… I believe that it’s unlikely… Poirier has strong wrestling with good takedown defence and high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Don’t forget that Dustin Poirier was submitting Black Belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu when he was a Blue Belt under Tim Credeur. I’ve also noticed that Yancy Medeiros gives off certain “tells” during a fight that an experienced guy like Dustin Poirier will be able to capitalize on. Medeiros has got away with making this rookie mistake in many of his fights, but his “tells” were one of the main reasons why he lost against Jim Miller. The “tell” is that Medeiros smiles and calls his opponents on everytime he gets hurt. He’s done it in almost all of his recent fights and it often phases his opponents and causes them to sink into a shell for a few seconds [allowing Yancy to recover]. An aggressive fighter like Dustin Poirier won’t buy this kind of taunt and he’s much more likely to take the Jim Miller approach and swarm him. I am a big fan of Yancy Medeiros, but I just don’t see him winning this fight in Poirier’s hometown. He doesn’t have the power to knock Dustin out and his ground game isn’t on Poirier’s level. Dustin Poirier has home advantage on his side and I believe that he’s a good bet at these odds. [adrotate group=”19″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Dustin Poirier to win at odds of 1.56 | -179 | 14/25
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ALEX CACERES vs FRANCISCO RIVERA BETTING TIP
Alex Caceres moves around a lot and throws a ton of flashy strikes but there’s very little substance to his offence. He may look like a tricky striker with good footwork, but he’s actually very basic and he’s wide open to getting knocked out. Caceres’ susceptibility to getting knocked out is largely down to the fact that he doesn’t utilize any kind of head movement and he fights with his head in a rigid upright position. Francisco Rivera is a fighter built to knock a guy like Alex Caceres out. Rivera hits hard and he’s extremely good at landing punches inside the pocket. Rivera also does a great job of landing counter strikes and timing his opponent’s when they’re about to close the distance. Alex Caceres has repeatedly been caught with one dangerous punch throughout his career, but he’s never fought a guy with enough power to put him away. Francisco Rivera has the power to knock him out and he’s extremely good at throwing this one particular punch that Caceres is highly susceptible to getting caught by. The punch is a left straight counter, that Francisco throws when his opponent’s are closing the distance. He often throws it whilst backing up and he brings it right up over his opponent’s shoulder so that they cannot see it coming. He’s dropped several guys with it throughout his career and multiple people have been able to land similar punches on Caceres over the years. I believe that there’s a very good chance that Rivera will finish Alex Caceres using that punch… Francisco Rivera is at his best when he is able to fight without the risk of getting taken down. Alex Caceres has only successfully landed one takedown in 11 fights in the UFC and it’s not realistic to assume that he will be able to take Rivera down or even try. All of Rivera’s previous opponent’s in the UFC have tried to take him down and this has meant that he hasn’t been able to completely let his hands go. Not having to worry about getting taken down will enable Rivera to strike with freedom and fight to his full potential. As a result, I believe that Rivera will put in the best performance of his career against Alex Caceres. Francisco Rivera is a tough guy and I don’t believe that Caceres has the power to back him up. I believe that Rivera will walk Caceres down and win this fight by landing the more significant strikes. [adrotate group=”115″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Francisco Rivera to win at odds of 1.91 | -109 | 91/100
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JOE PROCTOR vs JUSTIN EDWARDS BETTING TIP
Justin Edwards is returning to action against Joe Proctor after an 18 month layoff. Edwards has only had 1 fight per year in the UFC since 2011 and I believe his inactivity has seriously hampered his development. I could talk extensively about why I believe Joe Proctor will beat Justin Edwards at UFC Fight Night 68, but ultimately it’s because Proctor is better everywhere. Proctor has better striking, better grappling, better cardio and he’s more athletic. He also lands a higher volume of strikes per minute, he’s alot more aggressive and he’s also better defensively. Justin Edwards is an awkward striker who doesn’t throw with enough power or volume to cause Proctor a problem. On the ground it’s possible that Edwards could catch Proctor in a fluke submission, but it’s unlikely because Proctor has legit Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and trains with Joe Lauzon. I can’t say that this will be an easy fight for Proctor because Edwards is tough and Proctor always seems to be involved in wars, but it’s still difficult to see any way in which Proctor could lose this fight… [adrotate group=”111″]MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Joe Proctor to win at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100
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