Prop bets are a great way to turn a little bit of money into a lot of money. I place a ton of small prop bets on every UFC event and most of the time they return a very nice profit. It’s difficult for me to include the results of my props in my overall record, because the limits that you can bet on props tend to be a lot lower than bets you can play straight up. This means that it would be unfair of me to recommend a 1 unit bet on a particular prop, because many Sportsbooks heavily limit the amount of money you can bet on a prop. For example; 5 Dimes have currently limited me to $50 per prop bet. This means it would be unfair of me to say “Bet 1 unit on a particular prop” when it’s possible that the maximum amount of money that most people can bet per prop is $50. $50 could be 5 units for one person, but not even 1 unit for someone else. This is the reason why I prefer to post my props and let you guys decide how much you want to bet on them. I personally recommend that you keep prop bet stakes low to avoid them having a significant impact on your bankroll if you have a bad event. You should try to keep your bets under 0.5 units if possible unless an outcome is very likely.
I have left it late releasing my prop bets for UFC 190 because most of the big European, Australian and Canadian betting websites have a more limited range of props than what we normally see. I was hoping that they’d release more props, but with less than 4 hours before the start of UFC 190 it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. As a result, I don’t have as many prop bets for UFC 190 as I normally would.
I placed each of these bets at Paddy Power.
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Many of these proposition bets can also be found on 5 Dimes.
Here are my proposition bets for UFC 190…
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Clint Hester vs Vitor Miranda
Clint Hester to win by KO at odds of 5.00 | +400 [1 unit]
Iuri Alcantara vs Leandro Issa
Alcantara to win by KO at odds of 3.50 | +250 [1 unit]
Nordine Taleb vs Warlley Alves
Warlley Alves wins by decision at odds of 2.87 | +187 [1 unit]
Patrick Cummins vs Rafael Cavalcante
Fight ends by KO at odds of 2.00 | +100 [2 units]
Demian Maia vs Neil Magny
Demian Maia to win by decision at odds of 2.50 | +150 [1 unit]
Neil Magny to win by KO at odds of 9.50 | +850 [1 unit]
Neil Magny to win in round 3 at odds of 23.00 | +2200 [1 unit]
Claudio Gadelha vs Jessica Aguilar
Claudio Gadelha to win by submission at odds of 6.00 | +500 [1 unit]
Jessica Aguilar to win in round 3 at odds of 26.00 | +25.00 [1 unit]
Fight goes the distance at odds of 1.40 | -250 [3 units]
Antonio Bigfoot Silva vs Soa Palelei
Soa Palelei to win in round 1 at odds of 2.10 | +110 [1 unit]
Soa Palelei to win in round 2 at odds of 6.00 | +500 [0.5 unit]
Soa Palelei to win by KO at odds of 1.72 | -139 [2 units]
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Stefan Struve
Fight does not go the distance at odds of 1.20 | -500 [5 units]
Stefan Struve to win in round 2 at odds of 6.00 | +500 [1 unit]
Stefan Struve to win by KO at odds of 2.50 | +150 [1 unit]
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira to win by KO at odds of 4.50 | +350 [1 unit]
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Mauricio Shogun Rua
Shogun to win in round 1 by KO at odds of 4.33 | +333 [1 unit]
Shogun to win in round 2 by KO at odds of 6.00 | +500 [1 unit]
Fight does not go the distance at odds of 1.44 | -227 [3 units]
[box type=”warning” align=”aligncenter” class=”” width=””]The variance on prop bets is a lot higher than the variance on standard bets.
As a result… I do not recommend that you work to the scale of 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll when placing props.
Your prop bet stakes should not be big enough to put a significant dent in your bankroll, even if you were to lose every prop bet on a single event.
I personally recommend that your unit size on props equals around 0.2% of your standard unit size for normal bets.
The recommended unit sizes in this article are only to illustrate how much money you should stake in relation to the other prop bets. For example…
I might bet on Anderson Silva to win by KO in round 4 at odds of 21.00 | +2000 [1 unit]
To cover ourselves against potential losses, I might recommend another prop as an insurance bet such as…
Anderson Silva to win by KO at odds of 2.20 | +120 [2 units]
Notice how I’ve doubled the recommended amount you should bet on Anderson Silva to win by KO at anytime during the fight? This type of bet covers any potential losses on our more speculative bet on Anderson Silva to win by KO in round 4 and it also means we’ll end up with a guaranteed profit, if one of the bets hit.
I hope this makes sense. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me directly or hit me up on the forum…
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I placed each of these bets at Paddy Power.
Many of these proposition bets can also be found on 5 Dimes.
Soa palelei is so bad