[adrotate group=”25″]We made a loss of 34.30 units on our bets for UFC 171, which was one of our largest losses in the last 3 years. In this article we’ll be looking back at our betting strategy for the event and review how each of our bets played out.
I felt extremely confident about my bets for UFC 171, but every now and again you run into an event where nothing goes right for you and that’s exactly what happened here.
Our betting strategy for this event was simple. We picked two sure fire winners in Hector Lombard and Carlos Condit and we also picked 3 underdogs, who each had a great chance of winning. Our methodology behind this strategy was that something crazy would have had to have happened for Lombard or Condit to lose. As long as they both won and 1 out of our 3 underdog picks won, we would have made a healthy profit for the night. Unfortunately things didn’t work out like that.
Whenever I make a loss on an event I always go back and study each of my losing bets to see what I could have done differently. I can say hand on heart that despite making a huge loss, I still feel that 4 out of the 5 bets I placed were the right decision. The only bet I feel I made a mistake on was Diego Sanchez to beat Myles Jury. Looking back, I should have avoided that fight altogether. I’m not going to beat myself up too badly over this one, as Sanchez was still a well priced underdog, but I should have known better than to bet against a young, undefeated fighter like Jury.
Now lets take a look at how each of my bets played out…
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JESSICA ANDRADE vs RAQUEL PENNINGTON
OUR BET: 10 Units on Raquel Pennington to win at 3.10 | +210 | 21/10
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 10 Units Lost
It was very frustrating watching this fight because Raquel Pennington has amazing talent and is a much better fighter than Jessica Andrade. Pennington’s problem is that she starts extremely slow and fights tentatively. She let Andrade dictate the pace of the fight and that cost her.
This should have been an easy fight for Pennington, but she didn’t show up until the third round and by then it was too late. Instead of circling away from Andrade and using her superior boxing to create angles, she just moved backwards which allowed Andrade to close the distance and control her against the cage.
When Pennington finally got her head in the game in the third round, she completely destroyed Andrade and almost finished the fight. If she would have fought for the whole fight like she did in the third, she would have won this fight comfortably.
It’s really difficult to see where Pennington goes from here. She’s obviously got a ton of talent, but at the same time she clearly doesn’t have the mentality required for fighting in the UFC. Her pro MMA record now stands at 4-5 and it’s tough to see her lasting in the UFC much longer. If she gets another fight she will be lucky, as fighters with negative records normally don’t last that long in the UFC.
If I had to do my bets for this event again, I would choose Pennington every time. If she fought to her full potential she would have destroyed Andrade. At odds of 3.10 | +210 | 21/10, this was the right bet to make. Pennington really under performed in this fight and that might cost her a place in the UFC.
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT RAQUEL PENNINGTON WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
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HECTOR LOMBARD vs JAKE SHIELDS
OUR BET: 10 Units on Hector Lombard to win at 1.57 | -175 | 4/7
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 5.70 Units Profit
This fight played out exactly like I said it would. It was an easy fight for Hector Lombard, because Hector Lombard is better than Jake Shields at EVERYTHING.
Lombard completely dominated this fight and Shields had no answer for Lombard’s striking or take downs. These are two high levels fighters who are now moving in opposite directions in the UFC.
WE CORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT HECTOR LOMBARD WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
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DIEGO SANCHEZ vs MYLES JURY
OUR BET: 10 Units on Diego Sanchez to win at 2.40 | +140 | 7/5
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 10 Units Lost
I made a big mistake with this bet. I regret placing it and if I had to do this all over again I would have given this fight a miss.
There are several rules that I stick to, in order to continually make a profit betting on MMA and I broke 2 of those rules in this fight.
Rule Number 1: Never bet against an undefeated fighter.
Rule Number 2: Never bet against a young fighter who is hungry for success.
I broke both those rules by betting against Myles Jury on Saturday night and it cost me 10 grand. Jury completely dominated the fight and never looked in any danger.
My rationale behind this bet, was that Jury fought tentatively in his last fight against Mike Ricci and fighting tentatively against Diego Sanchez would have cost him.
It’s really tough to see where Diego goes from here. He’s a massive star in the UFC and he’s such an exciting fighter to watch, but he looked terrible on Saturday night. Jury completely outclassed him and Jury isn’t even near the top 10 in the UFC’s Lightweight division. Hopefully Sanchez can get his career back on track and I’m really hoping that this isn’t the beginning of the end for one of the most exciting fighters in UFC history.
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT DIEGO SANCHEZ WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
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CARLOS CONDIT vs TYRON WOODLEY
OUR BET: 10 Units on Carlos Condit to win at 1.67 | -149 | 67/100
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 10 Units Lost
After seeing Diego Sanchez get beat, who is one of my favourite fighters of all time, I didn’t think UFC 171 could get any worse, but it did.
Everything was set up for Carlos Condit to beat Tyron Woodley and then go on to a title shot, but his career was derailed in the cruelest of ways when he tore his Cruciate Knee Ligament in the second round. I don’t even care about losing this bet, I’m just gutted for Condit.
I genuinely believe that Carlos Condit is the best Welterweight in the world and that he could have gone on to beat Johny Hendricks for the Welterweight title.
Tyron Woodley is quite simply not on the same level as Carlos Condit.
I was disgusted how Woodley claimed credit for Condit’s injury in the post fight press conference, but I guess having a big ego is a part of being a professional fighter. Condit probably got taken down and kicked in the leg hundreds of times in training camp and his knee was fine, it was just a freak accident that he tore his Cruciate Knee Ligament in the fight. I lost a lot of respect for Woodley when he took credit for causing the injury and I hope that his next opponent can send him back down to the bottom of the Welterweight rankings where he belongs.
I wish Condit a speedy recovery and I can’t wait to see him competing again in the Octagon. In case you hadn’t already guessed, I completely stand by my bet on Condit, we just got unlucky with this one.
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT CARLOS CONDIT WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
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JOHNY HENDRICKS vs ROBBIE LAWLER
OUR BET: 10 Units on Robbie Lawler to win at 4.25 | +325 | 13/4
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 10 Units Lost
This was always going to be a close fight. As a result the excellent value odds of 4.25 | +325 | 13/4 made Robbie Lawler a great bet.
Many people are complaining that they feel Robbie Lawler won this fight, but I honestly believe that the judges got it right. Hendricks won a close 1st round and won the 2nd round comfortably, whilst Lawler completed dominated the 3rd and 4th rounds. Going into the 5th and final round, both these guys had won 2 rounds each and the guy who had the better 5th round was going to win the fight. Hendricks absolutely won that 5th round and he was rightly crowned the winner.
It would be easy for me to say that we were robbed because Lawler’s 3rd and 4th round wins should have been scored 10-8, but that’s all water under the bridge now.
Robbie Lawler showed everyone why he deserves to be at the top of the Welterweight division and I’m sure that we’ll see him fighting for a title again soon. Betting on him was absolutely the right thing to do, this just wasn’t our night!
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT ROBBIE LAWLER WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
