Alistair Overeem vs Andrei Arlovski Betting Tip Prediction
Click here to read our betting tip for the fight between Alistair Overeem and Andrei ArlovskiOUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Alistair Overeem to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]
Albert Tumenov vs Gunnar Nelson Betting Tip Prediction
We’ve made almost 20 units of profit betting on Albert Tumenov over the last 2 years and I expect to add to that total by making even more money when we bet on him to beat Gunnar Nelson at UFC Fight Night 87… There’s definitely an element of risk to this bet because we haven’t seen anyone really test Tumenov’s takedown defence since he first fought Ildemar Alcantara back in 2014. Tumenov’s takedown defence didn’t look great in that fight, but we have to remember that it was his UFC debut and he was only 22 years old at the time. Tumenov’s fight against Alcantara also took place in a hot and humid arena in Brazil and he lost a split decision against a popular Brazilian fighter who had home advantage on his side. These are tough conditions for a young fighter to make their UFC debut in, so I don’t want to be too harsh on Tumenov for some of the weaknesses that he showed during that fight. We haven’t seen many fighters test Tumenov’s takedown defence since he came into the UFC, but we shouldn’t let that deter us from betting on him to beat Gunnar Nelson, because he has shown strong hips, great balance and flashes of brilliant takedown defence when some of his opponents have tried to take him down. Tumenov also now fights with a much more measured approach than he did in his debut. If you go back and watch him against Alcantara, you’ll see him over commit to a lot of his punches, which made it easy for Alcantara to duck under him and take him down. If you watch any of his fights since then, you’ll see that he doesn’t do this anymore. Instead, Tumenov does an incredible job of managing range by applying just enough pressure to control the striking exchanges without over committing and leaving himself exposed to the threat of being taken down. Gunnar Nelson has strong takedowns, but he doesn’t shoot in on his opponent’s that much and he doesn’t have the best top control either. If you go back and watch his fights against Rick Story and Zak Cummings you’ll see that the takedowns were there for Gunnar, but he didn’t try to take them down that much. This wouldn’t be so bad if he was dominating the striking exchanges, but he wasn’t. This brings me nicely onto another one of the reasons why I recommend betting on Albert Tumenov to beat Gunnar Nelson… If you go back and watch Gunnar Nelson’s fights in the UFC you’ll see that he has really bad fight IQ. Sure, he’s had some dominant performances against the likes of Brandon Thatch and Omari Akhmedov, but the vast majority of his fights are full of fundamental mistakes that will cost him against most of the top 15 Welterweights in the UFC. Take his fight against Zak Cummings as an example… Gunnar Nelson was clearly better than Zak Cummings everywhere, but he spent most of the fight doing absolutely nothing. This didn’t matter in the end because he was able to submit Cummings in the second round, but this fight could have been dangerously close had he not managed to win inside the distance. Gunnar’s performance against Demian Maia was perhaps the most frustrating to watch. I feel this fight said more about Gunnar’s poor fight IQ than Maia’s skills as a fighter… It’s a well known fact that Demian Maia is one of the best grapplers in the UFC and yet Gunnar repeatedly tried to take him down and beat him in a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu match. This ended badly and Gunnar lost every single grappling exchange that they got into. This is concerning because the Blueprint on how to beat Demian Maia has been written… Maia is not a natural wrestler and he’s been plagued by bad cardio his entire career. At almost 40 years old, Maia is very beatable, you just have to defend the takedown and make him work. If you do this, he’ll be gassed out of his mind by the end of the second round and from there you can go on to dominate. So why would Gunnar make this an easy fight for Maia by initiating the grappling exchanges? Part of the blame lies with Gunnar’s coach, John Kavanagh because at the end of the second round, Gunnar was clearly down 2 rounds and Kavanagh gave him some terrible advice. It was clear going into the third round that Gunnar needed a finish to win, but instead of Kavanagh telling Gunnar to keep the fight standing at all costs and try to look for a knockout, he instead told Gunnar to use a Guillotine to get top position on Maia. This brief moment was a big red flag for me because it clearly highlighted that Gunnar Nelson is plagued by a combination of bad coaching and bad fight IQ. Albert Tumenov is the complete opposite because he’s ruthlessly consistent. You know exactly what you are getting with him every time. He always shows up to fight. He has cardio for days and he has knockout power in every strike. He is incredibly consistent and he is a nightmare opponent for someone like Gunnar Nelson. Gunnar has shown in his fights against Rick Story and Demian Maia that he doesn’t really have the dog in him. He will fade if you can hurt him and hurting people is what Tumenov does best. This probably comes from Gunnar’s background in Karate, a Martial Art that typically favours that one killer blow as opposed to other Martial Arts which tend to involve a lot more exchanges. This means that Gunnar looks visibly uncomfortable when he gets hit. You can tell that getting hit is really out of his comfort zone and this puts him at a big disadvantage against someone like Tumenov who does a great job of standing in the pocket and exchanging. Gunnar Nelson’s traditional Karate based style of fighting means that he only throws a very low volume of strikes. This means that he is very easy to outpoint. Gunnar doesn’t have very good striking defence and he’s nowhere near as elusive as other high level Karate practitioners such as Lyoto Machida. This means that he gets hit way too much and he spends way too much time doing absolutely nothing. His Karate stance looks cool, but it isn’t effective. His output is simply too low. Albert Tumenov has a chin from hell and he’s shown throughout his career that he’s extremely durable. Tumenov also has great striking defence and he’s not afraid of getting dragged into a war. Tumenov lands more than double the amount of strikes per minute than Gunnar Nelson does, which means there’s almost no chance that Gunnar can outpoint Tumenov if this fight stays standing. Gunnar has to either take Tumenov down and control him on the ground or win this fight by knockout. I personally believe that both of those scenarios are extremely unlikely because Gunnar has shown a reluctance to take people down in the majority of his fights and Tumenov has shown flashes of brilliant takedown defence over the last 2 years. Gunnar Nelson has shown throughout his career that he has bad fight IQ and that he can be broken. I believe Tumenov will win this fight by taking the centre of the Octagon and ultimately breaking Gunnar Nelson with his relentless pressure and devastating style of striking. I believe there’s a very good chance that Tumenov will win this fight by knockout. Gunnar Nelson just doesn’t have the striking defence or the heart to hang in there for 15 minutes with Tumenov. I once heard Gunnar Nelson say in an interview that he doesn’t look at MMA as a sport and that he doesn’t recognise the need to win rounds. Instead he looks at every fight like a contest that he must win and he likes to take the time to work his opponent out. This philosophy may have been effective back in the days where there were no time limits on fights, but Gunnar has 15 minutes to finish his opponent or win 2 out of the 3 rounds decisively. If he doesn’t do that he’ll lose the fight and this is something that he doesn’t seem to care about. Gunnar Nelson’s lack of urgency, bad fight IQ and warped perspective on the sport are just some of the reasons why I believe Albert Tumenov is a great bet…OUR BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Albert Tumenov to win at odds of 1.61 | -164 | 61/100 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]
Anna Elmose vs Germaine de Randamie Betting Tip Prediction
When the UFC hold an event in a new country for the very first time they always schedule at least one squash match where a popular home country fighter gets gifted a very easy fight against someone who is no where near their level. The purpose of this is to ensure that the home town fans are almost guaranteed to see a spectacular finish. When the UFC do this they are essentially using the same crowd pleasing tactics as the Romans when they used to starve and poison peasant Warriors before tossing them into one sided battles against their best Gladiators. Everyone is a winner in this type of scenario, apart from the peasant Warrior, who happens to be Anna Elmose on this occasion. I very rarely feel this confident in a bet on a female fighter, because female fighters are traditionally a lot more inconsistent than men, but there’s just no escaping the fact that the deck is heavily stacked against Anna Elmose in this fight. Germaine de Randamie is one of the greatest Muay Thai fighters of all time with an undefeated Pro Muay Thai record of 46-0. She currently holds the world record for the longest winning streak in the history of Muay Thai and to make it worse for Elmose she’s also Dutch, which means that she will have home advantage on her side. I’ve only ever bet more than 5% of my bankroll on a female fighter once in the past and that was on Ronda Rousey to beat Bethe Correia. This means that Germaine de Randamie to beat Anna Elmose is my second most confident bet on a female fighter of all time… Germaine De Randamie is easily the best striker in Women’s MMA right now, but her poor takedown defence and lack of a ground game have prevented her from seeing the same success as other high level strikers like Cyborg and Holly Holm. The good news is that de Randamie is still only 32 years old, so she still has plenty of time to make a name for herself in Women’s MMA. Its also worth noting that her takedown defence is improving from fight to fight and her ability to stuff takedowns is aided by her long frame, strong hips and explosive power. Germaine de Randamie is an athletic freak in the world of female combat sports and she’s one of the few female fighters who can move and hit like a man. I don’t think there’s any chance that this fight will go to the ground, because de Randamie will want to keep the fight standing at all costs and Elmose has weak wrestling and a non existant ground game. De Randamie also has a wide base, strong hips and a huge size advantage over Elmose. I believe that size will be huge factor in this fight because de Randamie is absolutely enormous for a Bantamweight at 5 ft 10 and she has the perfect frame for MMA with a huge reach, muscular upper body and lean legs. When she first came into the UFC she was dubbed the female Anderson Silva and there are definitely a lot of similarities in their physique and style. Elmose is the complete opposite because she’s a very small Bantamweight at just 5 ft 3 and looks like a normal girl. She also regularly weighs in at around 134 pounds which indicates that she doesn’t cut any weight and struggles to make 135. Elmose should probably be fighting in the 125 pound division and I expect Germaine De Randamie to tower over her. De Randamie will also have a huge reach advantage over Elmose, which is going to make it really hard for Elmose to do anything without taking significant damage. If you’ve ever heard me talk about Cyborg, you will have heard me say that she is so much more dangerous than any other female fighter in MMA because she moves and hits like a man. Most female fighters don’t move in this way. If you look at some of the best Bantamweights in the world like Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, Amanda Nunes and Cat Zingano, you’ll notice that they’re all relatively slow and they all have an awkwardness about them. Fighters like Cyborg and Germaine de Randamie are different because they fight and move like men. There’s really not that much difference between the way de Randamie throws strikes and the way that Jose Aldo throws strikes. Female fighters like de Randamie are a different breed and it’s a huge shock for their opponents when they feel their power and explosiveness for the first time. Before I give you my prediction on how I think this fight will play out, I want you to take a look at Elmose’s last few fights…
As you can see, Elmose is tough and aggressive, but she doesn’t have the technique to back up her fighting spirit… Her striking is too wild and wreckless, her wrestling isn’t that strong and her movement is very laboured. She also likes to spend a lot of time working her opponent’s against the cage, even though her clinch game is very low level. Anna Elmose is simply not ready to face someone like Germaine de Randamie.
If this fight stays standing, it’s only a matter of time before Elmose gets knocked out, so I expect her to try and bum rush de Randamie and work her against the cage. This is obviously a terrible idea because de Randamie is one of the greatest female Muay Thai practitioners of all time. This means that her clinch game is exceptional.
So how does Elmose win?
Honestly… I have no idea…
I rarely bet this much money on a female fighter, but I can’t see a single path to victory for Elmose. It’s possible that she might land a couple of takedowns, but she doesn’t have the technique or physicality to hold de Randamie down for long. The truth is, de Randamie is a popular Dutch fighter who is being gifted an easy win for the hometown fans. De Randamie should win this fight easily…
OUR BETTING TIP: 7.5 Units [7.5% of your bankroll] on Germaine de Randamie to win at odds of 1.30 | -333 | 3/10 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]
Dominic Waters vs Leon Edwards Betting Tip Prediction
Dominic Waters has fought twice in the UFC and looked really bad in both fights, but it’s worth noting that Waters took both of those fights on less than 1 weeks notice. For this reason, I didn’t want to form a negative opinion on him straight away because it’s tough to fight to your full potential when you don’t have that much time to prepare. To try and get a good read on Waters as a fighter, I had to go back and study his fights from before he got into the UFC and I’ve got to be honest, it doesn’t get any better. Dominic Waters is not a UFC level fighter. He has looked bad in his fights in the UFC and he has looked bad in his fights before the UFC. He has sloppy striking technique, poor striking defence and bad cardio. Leon Edwards is one of the hottest European prospects in the UFC right now. He’s got extremely good striking, KO power and he fights out of the Southpaw stance. He also has a solid ground game and really good takedown defence. Edwards has spent time working on his wrestling with Cormier, Rockhold and Velasquez at AKA and his wrestling is now at the point where a strong wrestler like Kamaru Usman struggled to take him down in his last fight. If this fight stays standing, Edwards will pick Waters apart with his more technical striking. Waters just doesn’t have the technique to compete with Edwards standing up. Dominic Waters has used wrestling in almost all of his fights, but he is not a strong wrestler. Leon Edwards might actually have the advantage when it comes to wrestling, but for now I can’t say for sure. I do however expect some of this fight to take place in the clinch and on the ground, where Waters will no doubt look to lay and pray Edwards. I’m not too worried about this because Edwards has a solid ground game, strong takedown defence and good scrambles. Dominic Waters is not a UFC level fighter and Leon Edwards has a bright future ahead of him in the sport. I expect Edwards to win this fight by using his defensive wrestling and clinch game to keep the majority of this fight in striking range. From there he should be able to use his superior speed, power and technique to pick Waters apart.OUR BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Leon Edwards to win at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]
Gareth McLellan vs Magnus Cedenblad Betting Tip Prediction
10 years ago many of the fights in the UFC were decided by which guy had the best wrestling. A very large proportion of UFC fights would consist of one guy taking the other down and lay and praying their way to victory. We don’t see this happen so much anymore because everyone is so well rounded, but the fight between Gareth McLellan and Magnus Cedenblad should end up being a throwback to the days where takedown defence often decided the outcome of a fight. Gareth McLellan’s takedown defence is non existant and his ground game is very low level. Magnus Cedenblad is a strong wrestler and this in itself should be more than enough to win this fight. Both these guys are grinders, so I don’t expect this fight to stay in striking range for long, but if it does, I give a slight edge to Cedenblad because he has a 7 inch reach advantage over McLellan. Reach is a big advantage when it comes to striking, but it is also a very big advantage in grappling when it is used in the right way. This is because Cedenblad’s abnormally long arms make it very easy for him to secure full body locks. This makes it very difficult to defend takedowns against him because he can often tie up an opponent’s arm in a body lock and drag them to the ground before they’re able to try and fight for underhooks. Cedenblad also does a great job of falling straight into the half guard position when he is taking his opponent’s down. This gives him a big advantage against someone like McLellan because McLellan’s ground game is at such a low level that Cedenblad will have opportunities to quickly move into mount when they hit the ground. This will open up opportunities for Cedenblad to either inflict big damage on McLellan with ground and pound or take his back and sink in a rear naked choke. Magnus Cedenblad has very powerful takedowns and he’s extremely strong from top position. Once he’s on top, it’s very hard to get him off. Gareth McLellan doesn’t know how to improve his position on the ground and once he’s on the bottom he pretty much has to stay there until the end of the round. His BJJ and wrestling is at a very low level and Cedenblad should be able to absolutely dominate him when the fight goes to the ground. Normally I would bet 5 units on a fight like this where Cedenblad has such a huge advantage over his opponent, but instead I recommend betting the slightly lower amount of 3.5 units on Cedenblad to win. This is because Cedenblad is Bipolar and hasn’t fought in the last 2 years. Still… The skill gap is so huge in this fight that I don’t think it will matter. I’ve checked Cedenblad’s social media accounts and he seems to be in a really good place right now. I expect this bet to win very easily…OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Magnus Cedenblad to win at odds of 1.37 | -270 | 37/100 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]
Prop Bets for UFC Fight Night 87 – Arlovski vs Overeem
All of these Prop Bets were placed at Paddy Power. You can place most of these bets at 5 Dimes if you cannot open an account with Paddy Power. The odds on Prop Bets vary a lot between different betting websites, so the odds published below may be very different to what you will find on your own betting website of choice. [box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]Alistair Overeem vs Andrei Arlovski
Alistair Overeem to win by KO at odds of 2.00 | +100Albert Tumenov vs Gunnar Nelson
Albert Tumenov to win by decision 3.50 | +250Germaine de Randamie vs Anna Elmose
Germaine de Randamie to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 4.00 | +300 Germaine de Randamie to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 6.00 | +500 Germaine de Randamie to win by KO at odds of 2.25 | +125Heather Clarke vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Heather Clark to win by decision at odds of 4.50 | +350Leon Edwards vs Dominic Waters
Leon Edwards to win by KO at odds of 2.87 | +187 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]UFC Fight Night 87 Picks
[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]| Alistair Overeem | vs | Andrei Arlovski | Overeem to win |
| Antonio Silva | vs | Stefan Struve | Struve to win |
| Albert Tumenov | vs | Gunnar Nelson | Tumenov to win |
| Chris Wade | vs | Rustam Khabilov | Wade to win |
| Anna Elmose | vs | Germaine de Randamie | de Randamie to win |
| Heather Clark | vs | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Clark to win |
| Francimar Barroso | vs | Nikita Krylov | Krylov to win |
| Gareth McLellan | vs | Magnus Cedenblad | Cedenblad to win to win |
| Reza Madadi | vs | Yan Cabral | Cabral to win |
| Dominic Waters | vs | Leon Edwards | Edwards to win |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | vs | Neil Seery | Seery to win |
| Willie Gates | vs | Ulka Sasaki | Gates to win |
