VIP Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 89 – MacDonald vs Thompson

I finalized my betting tips for UFC Fight Night 89 over a week ago but I haven’t posted them until now because MMA Betting has changed forever…

In the past it was essential that we placed our bets early to get the best odds, but over the last 4 weeks we’ve seen the odds improve on almost all “favourites” the closer we got to the time of the fight. We have also seen the odds decline on almost all “underdogs” the closer we got to the time of the fight. These changes are the complete opposite of how the odds on UFC fights have moved in the past. I’ve been betting on MMA for over 8 years and I have never seen such a dramatic shift in the way odds move for UFC Fights. These changes mean that our old strategy of betting early to get the best value odds will not work anymore.

These changes may not last forever and things will probably go back to normal when the sport stabilizes, but right now it’s important that we adapt to these changes so that we can ultimately make more money. This means that from now on I’ll be posting my betting tips for “favourites” a lot later than usual, whilst posting betting tips for “underdogs” a lot earlier.

These changes are actually great for us in the long run for a couple of reasons:

1. Placing our bets on fight day will mean that we don’t have money tied up for long periods of time. This is especially useful during months like July where we have a large amount of fights taking place.
2. We will get much better odds on the majority of bets that we place, which ultimately means we’ll make a lot more money.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me in the Chat Rooms or Forums if you’d like to discuss these changes to our MMA betting strategy in more detail.

Don’t forget join us in the Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC Fight Night 89, so that you can take advantage of our highly lucrative Live Betting Tips.

Click here to read our betting tip and prediction for the fight between Stephen Thompson and Rory MacDonald.

Donald Cerrone takes on Patrick Cote in the Co Main event of UFC Fight Night 89 and we recommend betting on Donald Cerrone to win.

Donald Cerrone is a great bet because he is significantly better than Patrick Cote in every single aspect of MMA…

If this fight was taking place anywhere else in the world I’d recommend a 5 unit bet on Cerrone to win, but we’re going to bet slightly less than we normally would because Cote is a popular Canadian fighter, which means he’ll have home advantage on his side for this fight. Patrick Cote is the kind of guy who thrives when fighting in front of his home fans and we can’t forget that his home advantage increases the chances of a judging robbery. I expect Cerrone to win this fight, but the fact that it’s taking place in Canada makes this bet slightly more risky than it would be if it were taking place on neutral territory.

Patrick Cote is primarily a striker who has built his career on heart and toughness as opposed to skill and technique. At 36 years old, Cote has become slow and basic and he doesn’t have that much power in his hands. Cote also lands a low volume of strikes for a Welterweight and he doesn’t throw a very diverse range of strikes. In recent years Cote has compensated for his average striking technique by adopting a Wrestle Boxing style of fighting that aims to win fights by grinding on his opponent’s. Cote has had a reasonable amount of success with this style against low level opponent’s, but he has come unstuck against more technically skilled fighters. This makes Donald Cerrone a very bad matchup for Cote because Cerrone is a strong wrestler with high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. His striking is also much better than Cote’s, which means there’s not a single area of MMA that Cote can turn to where he will have an advantage over Cerrone.

In recent years we’ve seen Cote get outstruck by almost everyone he’s fought, which has seen him resort to trying to take his opponent’s down or grind against them on the cage. This puts him at a big disadvantage against Donald Cerrone, because Cerrone has the skills to get the better of the clinch exchanges and dominate him on the ground.

Patrick Cote has been able to use wrestling to grind out a few wins over the last few years, but he is not a natural wrestler and his BJJ isn’t at a level that would cause Donald Cerrone a problem. If this fight goes to the ground, I expect Cerrone to dominate. I believe his grappling skills are in a completely different league to Cote’s.

Most people believe that Patrick Cote will have a size advantage over Cerrone, simply because he once fought at Light Heavyweight. This isn’t true and it’s actually Cerrone that will be the bigger guy going into this fight. This is backed up by the fact that Cerrone will have a 2 inch reach advantage over Cote and stands at 6 ft 1 inches tall compared to Cote who is 5 ft 11 inches tall. It’s also worth noting that Cote posted a picture of himself on Instagram this week where he looks a lot smaller than he normally would, especially 4 days before a weigh. I might be speculating, but it looks like USADA may have hit Cote hard.

We also have to take into account the fact that Cerrone is 4 years younger than Cote and is currently in his prime at 32 years old. Cerrone’s size, reach and age advantages aren’t huge, but it will give him a slight edge in this fight.

Donald Cerrone is very tough, he has a great chin and he also has cardio for days. He’s also extremely well rounded and lethal when he finds his range. Patrick Cote is a basic Wrestle Boxer with low level grappling skills and poor takedown defence. Cerrone should win this fight easily barring a hometown decision robbery.

Elias Theodorou takes on Sam Alvey at UFC Fight Night 89 and we believe that Elias Theodorou is a great bet…

This is a very easy fight for Elias Theodorou because Sam Alvey only has one way to win. He has to win this fight by knockout and that is his only path to victory. Alvey cannot win this fight by decision, because he throws a very low amount of strikes per round and his wrestling and ground game are at a very low level.

There’s an old saying in MMA that when you try to win a fight by knockout, you normally end up losing a decision and Alvey epitomises the meaning of this saying. Alvey’s sole objective in the Octagon is to KO his opponent and he spends the entire fight head hunting. This means he throws a very low volume of strikes per round, which makes him very easy to outpoint on the judges scorecards. If Theodorou can avoid getting knocked out, he’ll win this fight easily.

Prior to Theodorou’s last fight against Thiago Santos, we didn’t have any idea about how tough he was because most of his fights had been a total Cakewalk. Thankfully for us, Santos tested his chin several times, hurt him really bad and opened up giant cut on his forehead. This enabled us to see that Theodorou is very tough and he has a great chin, which makes him an excellent bet against a one dimensional knockout artist like Sam Alvey.

If this fight stays standing, I expect Theodorou to bounce around and use a lot of movement whilst chipping away at Alvey with his wide range of strikes. Alvey throw’s a very low volume of strikes per round, so I don’t see the standup exchanges being competitive at all.

Instead of standing and striking with Alvey, I really hope that Theodorou fights smart and uses his strong wrestling to drag Alvey to the ground. Alvey has really poor takedown defence and a very low level ground game, so I expect Theodorou to dominate this fight if he chooses to take Alvey down.

Another big factor to take into consideration is the fact that this is Alvey’s first fight back after suffering from a broken jaw in training. Fighters very rarely make a full recovery from a broken jaw and they almost always come back more tentative and less durable. Alvey was a very tentative striker before the broken jaw injury, so I can only imagine that he will be even worse now. It’s also worth noting that Alvey struggles to wear a Mouth Guard which makes him more susceptible to getting knocked out, gassing out or even breaking his jaw for a second time. I am actually surprised that he hasn’t broken his jaw before now because the way he wears his Mouth Guard means that it was an accident waiting to happen…

Elias Theodorou has everything going for him in this fight. He has better striking, much stronger wrestling, much better BJJ and the cherry on top of everything is that he’s a popular Canadian fighter, which means he’ll have home advantage on his side. Sam Alvey has nothing more than a puncher’s chance of winning this fight. I predict that Theodorou will dominate.

Valerie Letourneau takes on Joanne Calderwood at UFC Fight Night 89 and we predict that Valerie Letourneau will win.

Valerie Letourneau only has a slight advantage over Joanne Calderwood when it comes to skills, but her toughness and home advantage combined with her slightly better technique make her a good bet at the current odds. I have no doubt in my mind that Joanne Calderwood has the skills to make this a close fight, but the chances of her doing enough to win a decision in Canada against a tough, Canadian fighter like Valerie Letourneau are extremely slim.

If this fight stays standing I expect Letourneau to land the more significant strikes. Calderwood’s Muay Thai background means that she will throw the more diverse range of attacks, but Letourneau’s strikes are more accurate and they come with a lot more “pop”. Letourneau definitely has more power than Calderwood and I believe that this will be a deciding factor in the fight. Calderwood also makes the mistake of reacting when she gets hit, which can make it look like she’s hurt a lot more than she actually is. This will make it easier for Letourneau to gain the edge on the judges scorecards, even if both fighters appear to be landing a similar number of strikes.

Both girls are fairly close when it comes to their attacking striking skills, but there is a sizable gap in technique when it comes to defence. Letourneau utilizes good footwork and head movement to evade strikes and setup her attacks, whilst Calderwood’s striking defence and reflexes are very poor. This results in Calderwood taking a lot of unnecessary damage in her fights and it is another reason why I give Letourneau an edge over her.

Out of the two fighters I just feel that Letourneau is a lot more technical and a lot more solid. Calderwood throws a lot of wreckless, unorthodox spinning strikes that have a very low success rate, especially in the Women’s division where knockouts are rare. These unorthodox attacks leave her open to getting countered or taken down.

Valerie Letourneau has a big advantage when it comes to wrestling and Jiu Jitsu although she doesn’t use her grappling skills that often. Letourneau should win this fight easily if she chooses to take this fight to the ground.

Valerie Letourneau is incredibly tough, more technically skilled and has home advantage on her side. I expect her to win this fight even though there’s a good chance it might be close…

All of these Prop Bets were placed at either Paddy Power, Unibet or 5 Dimes.

[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Rory MacDonald vs Stephen Thompson

Stephen Thompson to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 9.50 | +850
Stephen Thompson to win by KO in round 3 at odds of 12.00 | +1100

Donald Cerrone vs Patrick Cote

Donald Cerrone to win by decision at odds of 3.30 | +230

Sean O’Connell vs Steve Bosse

Fight ends by KO in round 1 at odds of 2.00 | +100

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti

Olivier Aubin-Mercier to win by decision at odds of 3.30 | +230
Olivier Aubin-Mercier to win by submission at odds of 2.25 | +125

Joanne Calderwood vs Valerie Letourneau

Valerie Letourneau to win by decision at odds of 2.25 | +125

Jason Saggo vs Leandro Silva

Jason Saggo to win by decision at odds of 2.62 | +162

Krzystof Jotko vs Tamdan McCrory

Tamdan McCrory to win by decision at odds of 3.60 | +260

Chris Beal vs Joe Soto

Chris Beal to win by decision at odds of 2.50 | +150
Joe Soto to win in round 3 at odds of 15.00 | +1400

Elias Theodorou vs Sam Alvey

Elias Theodorou to win by decision at odds of 2.00 | +100

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger vs Randa Markos

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger to win by decision at odds of 3.50 | +250

Colby Covington vs Jonathan Meunier

Jonathan Meunier to win by decision at odds of 5.00 | +400

Ali Bagautinov vs Geane Herrera

Ali Bagautinov to win by decision at odds of 2.00 | +100

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]