TUF 27 Finale Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter Season 27 Finale is just one of three major MMA events taking place this week. We have PFL 3 taking place on Thursday night, the TUF 27 Finale taking place on Friday night and then UFC 226 taking place on Saturday night.

Due to the number of fights taking place this week, I am prioritizing researching the fights over writing breakdowns. This will enable me to identify any betting opportunities before the odds change. Then once my research is complete I will return to the articles and add my breakdowns and reasoning for each bet.

Remember that we will be able to Live Bet the entire Prelim and Main card fights for the TUF 27 Finale and UFC 226, so be sure to join us in the Live Betting area of our website when the fights start to take advantage of this amazing opportunity. In the past, we have made huge profits on the July 7th series of UFC events and I am optimistic that we will bank another big profit this year.

Brad Tavares vs Israel Adesanya Betting Tip and Prediction

If I could be sure that Brad Tavares was coming into this fight 100% healthy I would have fired off a big 5 unit bet on him to win. Unfortunately, at this stage, it is impossible to tell what kind of condition he’s in after news broke a few weeks ago that he is battling a broken foot injury.

Initially, I wasn’t planning to research this fight at all, because I would never bet on a fighter competing with a broken foot, but during an interview earlier this week, Brad said that it was a misunderstanding and that he was not injured. Check it out:

I played Poker for many years, and Tavares did not look like he was lying. Furthermore, he isn’t the most confident in front of a camera which makes it unlikely that he could have bluffed his way through answering those questions about the injury. He didn’t look nervous, he didn’t touch his face, he didn’t fail to maintain eye contact. He seemed to speak openly and honestly about the potential injury. If he is trying to cover up an injury he is one of the best liars I’ve ever seen…

A few days ago Brad Tavares also appeared to be moving fine during his open workout:

We can never be 100% sure that Brad is telling the truth and coming into this fight healthy, but based on what we know I am more inclined to trust what he is saying that to consider him injured.

If Brad Tavares comes into this fight and can compete anywhere near the level we have seen from him before; I guarantee you that he will beat Israel Adesanya. This is an excellent stylistic matchup for Tavares.

If you go back and watch Adesanya’s first two fights in the UFC, you’ll see that he gives up control of his body very easily. Tavares is strong at controlling his opponent’s body, dragging them to the ground and beating them up from top position. That’s all the analysis that you need here. Based on what we have seen in past performances, there is nothing that Adesanya can do to stop Tavares from dragging him to the ground and beating him up with ground and pound.

Adesanya has a significant advantage if the fight stays standing, but Tavares should easily be able to take this fight to the ground.

Brad should win easily if he comes into the fight healthy.

Reasons for betting on Brad Tavares

Gerald Meerschaert vs Oskar Piechota Betting Tip and Prediction

Earlier this year Nick Kalikas retired as the guy who set odds on MMA fights and a new guy is now setting the odds. Since this change in personnel, we have frequently seen big errors in capping the overs / unders on fights. This has enabled us to make a good profit this year exploiting mistakes on these kinds of bets.

I believe that once again the bookies have made a big error by capping the over / under on this fight at 1.5 rounds instead of 2.5 rounds.

On paper it may look like this fight should end quickly because both Piechota and Meerschaert have a bunch of early finishes, but it’s also worth noting that the vast majority of those finishes came against low-level opponents.

If you actually pay attention to the fighting styles of both guys you’ll see that neither is particularly dangerous and now that they are facing a tougher level of opponent I expect their fights to last a little longer than we have seen in the past.

Meerschaert has poor takedown defense but he showed in his last fight against Eric Spicely that he knows how to defend himself on the ground. This will prove useful because Piechota is an ADCC level grappler. Meerschaert is very tough and Piechota tends to use his grappling more to control opponents than to look for finishes. He showed this in his UFC debut where he failed to submit Jonathan Wilson in a 15 minute period. This makes it unlikely that Piechota will finish Meerschaert on the ground because Meerschaert has a base in BJJ and Wilson is primarily a striker with a low-level ground game.

Piechota has his fair share of big knockout wins, but he’s not particularly powerful or technical standing up. Meerschaert is also tough and has a decent chin.

Based on the past performances of both guys I feel that there is a very high chance that this fight lasts longer than 7.5 minutes. I feel like Piechota can take Meerschaert down easily and control him on the ground, but I also feel that Meerschaert has the skills to defend himself when he’s down there.

Neither guy is particularly dangerous standing which makes a win for either guy by KO unlikely. Don’t be fooled by the large number of 1st round KO wins on Piechota’s record. If you go back and watch those wins many of the KOs are under weird circumstances against very low-level opponents.

Reasons for betting on the over 1.5 rounds

Risk Factors with betting on the over 1.5 rounds

Alessio Di Chirico vs Julian Marquez Betting Tip and Prediction

The fight between Alessio Di Chirico and Julian Marquez is another example of the bookies making a mistake by capping a fight at over 1.5 rounds, instead of over 2.5 rounds.

Again, both guys may have seen a bunch of their past fights end early, but they’re now starting to face a higher level of opponent, which means finishes will be more difficult to achieve.

Di Chirico and Marquez have completely different styles, but we’ve seen in their past fights that they are both extremely tough and difficult to finish. Marquez was involved in two wars against Phil Hawes, and Darren Stewart and Di Chirico’s matchup against Gareth McLellan was equally grueling.

I believe we’ll see a sloppy back and forth fight with Di Chirico working for takedowns, completing them, but lacking the top game to keep Marquez on the ground. This should result in a few minutes disappearing off the clock as both fighters battle for position against the cage.

Neither Di Chirico nor Marquez are particularly dangerous on the ground or standing up, and they’re both tough enough to take each other’s best shots and keep coming forward. I believe the over on this fight should be set at 2.5 rounds. There’s good value on betting the over 1.5 rounds here.

Reasons for betting on the over 1.5 rounds

Risk Factors with betting on the over 1.5 rounds