UFC 226 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

We are now entering the busiest time of the year for MMA. Over the next six weeks, we have 6 UFC events, as well as multiple events from smaller promotions such as Bellator, PFL, Invicta, BAMMA, XFN, and ACB. I am going to be extremely busy over the next few weeks with almost 100 different fights to research.

Right now we already have a lot of odds released for many of the upcoming fights, and it is a race against time to research these fights before the odds start to decline on the best opportunities. For this reason, I am going to prioritize researching fights over writing breakdowns for my bets.

Writing breakdowns is a time-consuming process that at times like this could be better spent studying fight footage. For this reason, I will give out Betting Tips now, and I’ll come back to these articles and add my breakdowns closer to the time of the events. I hope you understand. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to me in the Chat Room if you’d like to discuss any of these bets in more detail.

Gokhan Saki vs Khalil Rountree Betting Tip and Prediction

Gokhan Saki looked amazing in his UFC debut, showing off a level of striking that we don’t get to see in MMA. Unfortunately, he also came out the gate at 1000 miles per hour and gassed out bad by the end of the first round. After the fight, Saki said that he needed to train harder so that this didn’t happen again. Judging by his recent training pictures it looks like Saki has made some adjustments for this fight because he appears to be in excellent shape. He looks much better now than he did in his UFC debut against Luis Henrique da Silva.

It’s also worth noting that MMA consists of 5-minute rounds, whereas Kickboxing consists of 3-minute rounds. Saki started to gas out after the 3-minute mark in his UFC debut, so I am guessing he just needs to learn to adjust his pacing for MMA.

Usually, I would not recommend betting on a fighter who only has cardio for 3 minutes, but Khalil Rountree also has terrible cardio and when both these guys get tired, Saki will be much more dangerous.

The UFC has done Saki a favor by giving him a very favorable matchup against Khalil Rountree. Rountree is a striker and will not take this fight to the ground. This will be a standup fight and it’s tough to see how Khalil could win this fight if it stays standing. I expect Saki to use his far superior technique on Khalil and win this fight by first round KO.

Saki is lightyears ahead of Rountree when it comes to striking. He’s a great bet at the current odds.

Reasons for betting on Gokhan Saki

Emily Whitmire vs Jamie Moyle Betting Tip and Prediction

Fighters are much more likely to underperform on big UFC events because of the pressure that the bright lights put on them. Over the years we’ve seen some of the best fighters in the world buckle under the weight of competing on these big Pay Per View cards.

If we could find a way to identify which fighters were more likely to crumble on the big stage, we could make a lot of money, but over the years I have struggled to identify any trends.

While researching the fight between Jamie Moyle and Emily Whitmire I didn’t see anything from a technical point of view which would suggest that either girl has an advantage in this fight. I did however stumble across this conversation between Trevor Wittman, Miesha Tate, and Emily Whitmire after Whitmire lost her fight against Roxanne Modafferi on season 26 of the Ultimate Fighter. Check it out:

In that video, Whitmire admitted to quitting against Modafferi, and she also admitted to quitting in some of her past fights. This makes her a prime candidate to buckle under the pressure of fighting on one of the biggest events of the year.

In contrast, Jamie Moyle is an absolute warrior. She’s not particularly great at anything, but she’s tough as hell, she has cardio for days, and she’s the kind of fighter that you have to kill in order to beat.

Skill for skill these girls are pretty well matched, but mentally Jamie Moyle is much stronger. George St-Pierre famously said that fighting is 90% Mental and 10% Physical and for that reason, I believe Moyle is a solid bet to win at UFC 226.

I believe Moyle wins this fight by making it ugly. She’s a grinder, and she’ll look to engage Whitmire in grappling exchanges and work hard to get into top position. From there she’ll look to beat Whitmire up with ground and pound.

I don’t expect this bet to be an easy winner, but Moyle is tough, and she’s going to fight for our money. Moyle is also very consistent. We know what we’re getting from her. If both fighters show up and perform to their full potential, I give Moyle a slight edge but based on what we know about Whitmire’s tendency to quit and how frequently fighters underperform on these big events I think Moyle is a rock solid bet here. Hopefully, she comes through for us.

Reasons for betting on Jamie Moyle

Drakkar Klose vs Lando Vannata Betting Tip and Prediction

Lando Vannata is significantly better than Drakkar Klose in every single aspect of MMA, and he should win this fight easily. Vannata has had a tough start to the UFC having already faced high-level opponents such as Tony Ferguson, Bobby Green, and David Teymur. Despite facing these tough opponents, Vannata was able to hold his own and came very close to winning all three of those fights.

Drakkar Klose is your typical MMA Lab fighter. He likes to come forward, apply tons of pressure, drive you into the cage and grind on you. He’s reasonably good at everything but great at nothing. Klose’s biggest weakness is that he does an excellent job of pressuring his opponents and cutting off the Octagon, but when he traps them in bad positions he doesn’t have the skills to capitalize. We repeatedly saw him trap Teymur in his last fight, but his hesitation and lack of confidence in his hands resulted in him being countered all night.

Lando Vannata has a base in wrestling, and he’s tough to take down. It’s also very difficult to tie Vannata up and control him against the cage. It is highly unlikely that Klose will be able to control Vannata against the cage for any length of time. Like many MMA Lab fighters, Klose also has a rigid stance which makes it difficult for him to take his opponents down. If you go and watch his past fights, you’ll see that his takedown entries come far too high above his opponent’s hips. Vannata has the wrestling skills to keep this fight standing and dictate where it takes place.

Lando Vannata in many ways has been a victim of his own success, because in almost all of his fights in the UFC so far he has hurt his opponent badly, then adrenaline dumped hunting for the finish. We have then seen him slow down as the fight progressed. Even if that happens against Drakkar Klose, I am not too worried because Klose doesn’t have the skills to win this fight in any position. Even when Vannata is tired he’s still very hard to take down, even harder to hold down and his standup is still super dangerous.

I see Vannata picking Klose apart in this fight and winning an easy decision. Klose will come forward with his trademark MMA Lab style, but he’ll be walking onto big shots that he will have no answer for. Klose badly struggled to deal with Teymur’s traditional Muay Thai style and looked confused for the whole 15 minutes. Vannata’s style is super unpredictable and super unorthodox which means we’re probably going to see Klose struggle even more tonight.

Drakkar Klose is the perfect stylistic matchup for Lando Vannata because he doesn’t have the skills to punish Vannata for his wild style of fighting. I am expecting a big performance from Vannata tonight. I think he wins easily.

Reasons for betting on Lando Vannata

Mike Perry vs Paul Felder Betting Tip and Prediction

Earlier this year Nick Kalikas retired as the guy who set odds on MMA fights and a new guy is now setting the odds. Since this change in personnel, we have frequently seen big errors in capping the overs / unders on fights. This has enabled us to make a good profit this year exploiting mistakes on these kinds of bets.

Last night at the TUF 27 Finale we were able to bank a good profit on these kinds of bets going 2-0 for +5 units and earlier on today Jaydog found another excellent over 1.5 rounds bet on the fight between Mike Perry and Paul Felder. This is another classic example of a matchup where the bookies have capped the over at 1.5 rounds when it should be set at 2.5 rounds. We’ve done exceptionally well this year on these kinds of bets, and hopefully, we can bank another profit from this one.

I love the over 1.5 rounds on this fight because both guys are extremely tough. Paul Felder has only been finished two times in his 18 fight career, and Mike Perry has never been finished in his 14 pro fights.

I also like the over bet on this fight because 8 out of Felder’s last 10 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds and 4 out of Perry’s last 6 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.

There is no question that both Perry and Felder will go to war tonight, but they are both extremely tough and very difficult to finish. Felder also has a passive style of fighting that should see minutes disappear off the clock.

Anything can happen in MMA, but we have an extremely high win rate in 2018 on these kinds of bets and whether this bet wins or loses, long term if we keep placing these kinds of bets we will continue to make money from them.

Reasons for betting on the over 1.5 rounds