UFC Betting Tips For UFC Fight Night 33 - Shogun Rua v James Te Huna

We’re big fans of Shogun Rua, but this is an extremely difficult fight for him. Right from the offset we want to make it clear that we don’t think there’s anyway that he can win this fight. He’s well known for his warrior spirit and willingness to fight anyone, but beating James Te Huna will be extremely difficult for the veteran. Shogun has lost his last two fights and another loss against Te Huna certainly wouldn’t look good. In an interview this week Dana White said that he would have to speak to Shogun about retirement if the Brazilian was to lose again on Friday night. Te Huna has only lost twice since joining the UFC back in 2010. These losses came against the top contenders in the Light Heavyweight division, Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira. [divider]

OUR VERDICT…

The betting lines for this match up are very close, but this is going to be a really tough fight for Shogun. The odds on this fight are a perfect example of how odds are influenced by the amount of money that is staked on a fighter and not necessarily a fighters chance of winning a fight. This presents us with a great value bet on James Te Huna, who is massively overpriced at close to evens [2.00]. If you’d like to find out more on why we occasionally find great value odds, then checkout chapter 5 of our MMA Betting System, where we talk about odds being influenced by the amount of money that is staked on a fighter. James Te Huna is a strong fighter with knock out power. He’s also fighting with home advantage on his side in the biggest fight of his life. He’s only ever lost against top contenders and the sold out crowd in Brisbane, Australia will all be rooting for their home town hero. Whenever we look at who is more likely to win a fight, we always consider how each of the fighters may be able to beat their opponent. It’s pretty safe to say that Shogun will not be able to take Te Huna down, nor will he want to. It’s just not his style and he’s never looked to take people down in the past. It’s also unlikely that Shogun will be able to knock out Te Huna. Te Huna on the other hand is strong enough to do whatever he wants to Shogun, he should be able to take him down and he also has a significant reach advantage over the Brazilian. Additional factors which will cause Shogun problems is the heat of Australia and the intensity that Te Huna will fight at. Shogun has been known to suffer from cardio problems and tire the longer a fight goes on. If Te Huna looks to push the pace of the fight then he may be able to defeat Shogun on work rate alone. JAMES TE HUNA TO WIN[divider]