ALEXANDER SHLEMENKO vs MELVIN MANHOEF
The Alexander Shlemenko vs Melvin Manhoef fight is the reason why I’m late publishing my betting tips for Bellator 133. I feel really confident that Shlemenko will win this fight, but this bet doesn’t come without risks, because Manhoef has devastating knockout power. All week, the odds have been very low on Shlemenko to win, but they’ve now risen to the point where I feel a bet on him to beat Manhoef is a good move. Alexander Shlemenko has almost every single advantage over Melvin Manhoef that you could possibly want in an MMA fight. Yes, it’s absolutely possible that Manhoef could punch a hole in Shlemenko’s head in the first 30 seconds of this fight and we lose our bet, but Shlemenko’s advantages are so overwhelming that we would be dumb not to bet him at the relatively decent value odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2. First of all, I’d like to start this betting tip by recognising that Manhoef has devastating knockout power. On his day, he can knockout any Middleweight in the world. But! He’s only got one round in him. If you can survive the 1st round against Manhoef you’ll ALMOST ALWAYS win the fight. Manhoef is a guy that likes to try and take your head off in the 1st round and if you can just weather the early storm, you will beat him. Melvin Manhoef’s only path to victory will be to knock Shlemenko out and that’s not easy to do. The Russian has an impressive professional MMA record of 51-9 and he’s only ever been knocked out ONCE. Shlemenko hasn’t fought the highest calibre of opponent throughout his career, but it’s still impressive that he’s only ever been knocked out once in 60 career fights. It’s also worth mentioning that the only time he ever did get knocked out was over 10 years ago… Melvin Manhoef might have serious knockout power, but Shlemenko is seriously tough and he’s seriously durable and he’s got an ungodly ability to take a punch and recover when he gets hurt. Alexander Shlemenko also fights out of the Southpaw stance which means he’ll naturally be moving away from Manhoef’s power right hand. This always makes the possibility of a knockout much less likely. Fighting out of the Southpaw stance also opens up Manhoef’s body to Shlemenko’s BRUTAL body kicks. Manhoef doesn’t have the best cardio and he’s going to be seriously gasping for air when the Russian lands a few of his trademark kicks. Shlemenko is one of the few guys that makes a real point of attacking the body early in a fight and it always pays off for him in the 3rd round when his opponents are struggling. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Shlemenko finishes this fight with a body kick. Alexander Shlemenko is also a much better grappler than Melvin Manhoef. He’s started to mix takedowns into his game in his last few fights and Manhoef doesn’t have the best takedown defence. It’s entirely possible that Shlemenko grabs a hold of Manhoef and takes him down with his trademark body lock. Shlemenko could easily win this fight if he choses to implement this gameplan, but I doubt he will, because he only ever seems to take his opponents down when he gets hurt. You also have to take into account the fact that Shlemenko is 7 years younger than Manhoef. An age gap this big is always a huge advantage for the younger fighter and Manhoef has taken a lot of head trauma throughout his career. He was brutally knocked out against Joe Schilling just 3 months ago and if you’ve ever had a concussion, you’ll know that it takes 6 – 8 weeks for your head to feel right again. I have a feeling that Manhoef might be stepping back into the cage a little too soon and at 37 years old, that last knockout might have had a serious impact on his durability. Alexander Shlemenko should be able to win this fight with pressure and aggression. He will almost certainly land more strikes, he should also land a few takedowns and he’ll easily be able to hold the centre of the cage and push Manhoef back. If Shlemenko can avoid getting knocked out, he will easily win. [adrotate group=”42″] MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on Alexander Shlemenko to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2[divider]
