We’ve got 8 betting tips for UFC on Fox 11 and we’re confident we can build on our profits for April by making even more money on this event.
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CAIO MAGALHAES vs LUKE ZACHRICH
Luke Zachrich steps up on short notice to fight Caio Magalhaes with just 2 weeks to prepare.
This would be a tough fight for Zachrich even if he had a full training camp and I don’t see anyway that Zachrich can beat the dangerous Brazilian with only 2 weeks to get ready for the biggest fight of his life.
Caio Magalhaes is a legit, up and coming fighter who trains with Jose Aldo and Renan Barao at Nova Uniao. He already holds notable wins over 2 tough opponents in Nick Ring and Karlos Vemola and I don’t see any way that he losses this fight.
The odds of 1.40 on Magalhaes to win are extremely generous, place your bets before they drop any lower!
OUR BET: 10.00 Units on Caio Magalhaes to win at odds of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5
THE BEST ODDS ON CAIO MAHALHAES TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”42″]
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JORGE MASVIDAL vs PAT HEALY
I can see Jorge Masvidal using his excellent take down defence to stay on the outside and pick Healy apart. I can also see Healy pressuring Masvidal for 3 rounds, pinning him up against the cage and winning a gruelling decision.
What I can’t see is this fight ending inside the distance because both these guys are tough as nails.
9 out of Masvidal’s last 10 fights have gone to a decision and 4 out of Healy’s last 5 have gone to a decision. I don’t see this one being any different, place your bets on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds…
OUR BET: 10.00 Units on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25
THE BEST ODDS ON THIS FIGHT TO GO OVER 2.5 ROUNDS CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”42″]
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SETH BACZYNSKI vs THIAGO ALVES
Thiago Alves hasn’t fought for 2 years and within that time he’s had 4 major surgeries. There is a possibility that Alves might show up at UFC on Fox 11 looking like a title contender and absolutely destroy Seth Baczynski. But you have to remember that ring rust is a very real issue and 2 years is one hell of a long lay off. Fighters almost never return to full strength after a major surgery and Alves is making a return after 4 major surgeries in just 2 years!
A lot has changed since Thiago Alves was destroying people in the UFC’s Welterweight division. Did you know that John Howard is the only fighter left in the UFC who Thiago Alves has beaten? Everyone else who Alves holds wins over has either retired or been cut. Still think he’s relevant? We’ll soon find out…
Seth Baczynski is a warrior and a tough opponent for anyone. Whilst he might get absolutely blasted by Alves, he’s also the kind of guy that will push the pace for 3 rounds and drag you into a war. I’m not sure if Alves has too many wars left in him and I’m also not sure if he’s going to be the same fighter that was so exciting to watch 6 years ago.
I’m not confident that Baczynski will win, but I’m confident enough to take a chance on him at the incredible odds of 4.35 | +335 | 67/20. This is only a small bet, but it’s a bet that pays well. The smart money is on Baczynski to win this fight…
OUR BET: 3.00 Units on Seth Baczynski to win at odds of 4.35 | +335 | 67/20
THE BEST ODDS ON SETH BACZYNSKI TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”44″]
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KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV vs RAFAEL DOS ANJOS
When I first heard about this fight, I thought that Nurmagomedov would smash Rafael Dos Anjos. I then watched footage of both fighters and I was shocked to discover that this is actually going to be a very close fight.
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the big favourite to win and he’s also highly rated, but having watched all their recent fights, I actually think Dos Anjos has the advantage.
If you watch any of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s fights, you will notice that he has very bad fight IQ. This is because he regularly gives up dominant positions, takes unnecessary risks and jumps into his opponents range with wild punches. Rafael Dos Anjos is the complete opposite. He is extremely smart and his excellent fight IQ is the reason why he’s won his last 4 fights by decision, against extremely tough opponents.
There’s no doubt that Nurmagomedov is a beast, but Rafael Dos Anjos has some of the best take down defence in the UFC’s Lightweight division and I believe he can use this takedown defence to keep the fight standing and pick apart Nurmagomedov. Like I say, Nurmagomedov is a beast but the excellent value odds of 3.30 | +230 | 23/10 are just too good to turn down on the fighter who has the best chance of winning.
I’m also going to place a bet on this fight to go to a decision, because I think these guys are good enough to cancel out each other’s strengths and the majority of their recent fights have gone to a decision.
OUR FIRST BET: 3.00 Units on Rafael Dos Anjos to win at odds of 3.30 | +230 | 23/10
OUR SECOND BET: 10.00 Units on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
THE BEST ODDS ON RAFAEL DOS ANJOS TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”42″]
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DONALD CERRONE vs EDSON BARBOZA
After watching a ton of footage on both these guys I’ve discovered that Edson Barboza is massively overrated…
He’s been built up as a devastating striker in the UFC’s Lightweight division, but a few highlight reel moments have created a smokescreen for what is actually a pretty average fighter…
All of Barboza’s impressive performances have come against very average opponents in Terry Etim, Lucas Martins and Rafaello Oliviera. Barboza has struggled every time he has faced a decent opponent.
It is entirely possible that Barboza could stay on the outside and pick apart Cerrone for 3 rounds, but I’m not sure he has the chin to do it. He’s been rocked multiple times throughout his career and he’s actually quite easy to hit!
Being easy to hit and having a weak chin is not a good combination when you’re fighting Donald Cerrone. Cerrone is a devastating knock out artist with one of the best chin’s in the business. In fact, he’s never been knocked out! The only guy to finish him with strikes in his 29 fight career is the current champ, Anthony Pettis.
Donald Cerrone is a slight underdog in this fight which I find baffling. The smart money is on Cowboy to win this…
OUR FIRST BET: 10.00 Units on Donald Cerrone to win at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1
THE BEST ODDS ON DONALD CERRONE TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”42″]
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LIZ CARMOUCHE vs MIESHA TATE
Liz Carmouche has lost every time she has fought a top 10 opponent and I don’t see this fight being any different. She has better boxing than Tate, but that’s about it. I’m struggling to see a scenario where Miesha Tate losses this fight.
One of the reasons why Carmouche has lost 4 times against top 10 opponents, is because she fights very tentatively. She’s a very reactive fighter, which never looks good in the eyes of the judges.
Miesha Tate is the complete opposite. She constantly pushes the pace, she never gives her opponents a second to breathe and she mixes up her striking and take downs really well.
Carmouche has better boxing than Tate, but she’s not the fastest and she doesn’t have elusive footwork. Tate doesn’t mind eating a punch or 5 to close the distance and she’s going to be able to tie up Carmouche pretty easily and take her down.
Carmouche isn’t going to knock Tate out, she’s not going to submit her and she’s not going to be able to stay on top of her for very long. She’s not active enough to outwork Tate and grind out a decision and as a result I don’t see any way that Tate losses this fight. The odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100 on Tate to win are excellent value for a fighter with such a big advantage. Place your bets before the odds get any lower…
OUR FIRST BET: 10.00 Units on Miesha Tate to win at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100
THE BEST ODDS ON MIESHA TATE TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”46″]
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FABRICIO WERDUM vs TRAVIS BROWNE
I see this fight playing out exactly like the Fabricio Werdum vs Alistair Overeem fight.
Werdum will look to take Travis Browne down, he will fail miserably and then he will spend the rest of the fight trying to avoid getting knocked out.
Fabricio Werdum is a Ju Jitsu wizard with lethal submission skills, but those skills will be completely useless in this fight because he won’t be able to get this fight to the ground. This doesn’t give him a very good chance of winning, because Travis Browne has a massive advantage in the striking department. Browne also boasts the staggering statistic that he has NEVER been taken down in the UFC. He has 100% take down defence in 9 UFC fights. That’s pretty incredible!
When trying to predict the outcome of this fight, just ask yourself one question. Is Werdum good enough to beat Travis Browne standing up? If your answer is “no” [which it should be] you know who to bet your money on. If your answer is “yes”, go back and watch Werdum’s fight against Alistair Overeem!!!
The odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100 on Travis Browne to win are amazing value for a guy with such a big advantage. Werdum is massively over rated and this should be a relatively easy fight for Browne…
OUR FIRST BET: 10.00 Units on Travis Browne to win at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100
THE BEST ODDS ON TRAVIS BROWNE TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”42″]
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