After a great start to the night in which we made a profit of 26.70 units from our betting tips for UFC Fight Night in Berlin, we ended up making a loss of 16.70 units on the TUF Finale in Brazil. A quick first round knock out of Fabio Maldonado and tentative performances from Rony Jason and Robbie Peralta were the biggest reasons for this loss.
Here’s how each of our betting tips played out…
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EDIMILSON SOUZA vs MARK EDDIVA
OUR BET: 10.00 Units on Mark Eddiva to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 10.00 Units Loss
Mark Eddiva looked good in this fight but Souza was able to use his range to finish Eddiva with strikes in the second round.
I don’t regret betting on Mark Eddiva to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 because I still feel like he was a great value bet and he almost finished Souza with strikes early on in the fight.
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT MARK EDDIVA WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
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GASAN UMALATOV vs PAULO THIAGO
OUR FIRST BET: 10.00 Units on this fight going over 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100
OUR SECOND BET: 10.00 Units on Gasan Umalatov at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 23.30 Units Profit
Paulo Thiago hasn’t looked his best for a long time and Gasan Umalatov is a tough grinder who smothers his opponents. I was pretty confident that Umalatov would win, but I also put down an insurance bet on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds. This insurance bet was purely because I do not trust Brazilian judges.
Our bet on Umalatov was one of 3 underdog picks for this event and unfortunately the only one that hit. This was a great value bet at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5.
WE CORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT THIS FIGHT WOULD LAST LONGER THAN 2.5 ROUNDS
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ROBBIE PERALTA vs RONY JASON
OUR BET: 10.00 Units on this fight not to go the distance at odds of 1.73 | -136 | 73/100
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 10.00 Units Loss
Robbie Peralta and Rony Jason fought a lot more tentatively than usual and the fight ended up going to a decision. This probably has a lot to do with Rony Jason breaking his hand in the first round, but I’m still surprised that this fight went the distance.
Both these guys are normally killers who go after their opponents, but they both held back in this fight.
Betting on this fight not to go the distance was definitely a good bet. It just didn’t come off for us tonight!
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT THIS FIGHT WOULD NOT GO THE DISTANCE
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FABIO MALDONADO vs STIPE MIOCIC
OUR BET: 8.00 Units on Fabio Maldonado to win at odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2
OUR SECOND BET: 2.00 Units on Fabio Maldonado to win by decision at odds of 14.75 | +1375 | 55/4
OUR INSURANCE BET: 10.00 Units on this fight going over 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5
OUR PROFIT / LOSS: 20.00 Units Loss
I didn’t feel confident that Fabio Maldonado would beat Stipe Miocic, but it was a good bet at odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2. To try and keep any losses on this bet to a minimum, I also put down an insurance bet that I felt was a lock.
Unfortunately everything went wrong for us in this fight, as Stipe Miocic brutally knocked out Maldonado in the first round, crushing our outright bet on Maldonado and also our insurance bet on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds.
WE INCORRECTLY PREDICTED THAT FABIO MALDONADO WOULD WIN THIS FIGHT
